When will indyref2 happen?

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, Blinky said:

 

Well, considering Scotland doesn’t know what currency it will use, that already creates uncertainty and financial turmoil. That’s before we get to larger issues.

 

The currency decision depends on how cooperative other parties are, and can't be made until negotiations are ongoing. Just as the UK can't say what their future relations with the EU will be, and the consequences for the pound and the economy in general, until negotiations are near complete. You were happy to vote Leave regardless though.

Edited January 24, 2020 by welshbairn

[Suspect Device]

Thought we'd decided on using sterling for a short transition time then our own currency? Certainly my preferred option.

[Baxter Parp]

Thought we'd decided on using sterling for a short transition time then our own currency? Certainly my preferred option.

That's the Growth Commission's recommendation, certainly.

[Anonapersona]

26 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

Apparently we're never going to have indyref2 because no-one cares.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/ian-blackford-snp-brexit-house-of-commons-constitutional-crisis-a9299506.html

That was painful. They talk about Scotland like we're just some kind of novelty item.

[Malky3]

25 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Nobody knows if this is the case, just as nobody knows for sure if we'll be financially worse off outside the EU, which you voted for despite the numerous indications that we will be. An independent Scotland at least will be able to to make economic decisions taylored to our own economy and priorities rather than the South East and the English Tory majority.

Not whilst you are committed to a period of Sterlingisation and not if you intend to join the Eurozone you won't! 

It is also absolutely clear that Scotland as an Independent country will have less money to spend than we do today. Sturgeon talks of many more years of following the same Tory spending policies she called "austerity" to cut the fiscal deficit. Only rabid Nationalists can't hear what they are being told. 

 

[welshbairn]

10 minutes ago, Blinky said:

 

The difference being, the UK has much more power in negotiations with the EU (who are playing games but will come around eventually) and other large economies around the world. Scotland on its own won’t have that clout, and the UK will benefit little from helping them find a currency, whereas the EU will clearly benefit from trading with the UK.

 

The EU exports to the EU amount to 8%, Uk to EU is 44%. The EU as a trading bloc has far more leverage in trade negotiations with the likes of the US than the UK will ever have on its own, they offer a much bigger market for American exporters. Scotland would get better deals as part of the EU than an isolationist UK.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

So the two guys who interrupter NS at FMQ’s yesterday are confirmed white supremacists. I think when it comes to politics, if you’re annoying the white supremacists you’re kinda on to a good thing, charge on Nicola!

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Do we have names? 
They looked like SDL Britain First types.  

Yeh, they’ve been ID, both confirmed LOL members,

One even brazenly holding a white supremacist flag in profile picture. But yeh the SNP are the evil ones lol.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

Not whilst you are committed to a period of Sterlingisation and not if you intend to join the Eurozone you won't! 

It is also absolutely clear that Scotland as an Independent country will have less money to spend than we do today. Sturgeon talks of many more years of following the same Tory spending policies she called "austerity" to cut the fiscal deficit. Only rabid Nationalists can't hear what they are being told. 

 

We continuously go around in circles in this thread and get completely nowhere, simply because we can't use today's economic model to make assumptions on a future as an independent nation, whether that be part of, or outwith the European Union.

What we CAN do however, is look at the economic benefits that countries such as Ireland & Slovakia have gained since moving away from their domineering neighbours, in short they have flourished despite warnings of impending doom.

The bottom line is that Scotland has huge strategic value due to it's position within the continent, it also has a developed infrastructure, is stable politically and already adheres to all the required criteria set down by the European Union with regards to basic laws such as employment rights, anti corruption and legal representation. We have an educated population (for the most part) and all in all would be seen as an excellent addition to the EU collective, which of course would bring all the benefits if and when needed to advance our transport network and clean up our most deprived areas.

I've said it before, however one only need travel to the likes of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia or the Czech Republic to see how far these countries have come while we've gone backwards. They put us to shame and personally I don't blame the EU for that, I blame years of serious mismanagement / ignorance and general apathy by our OWN Governments towards most areas outwith London and the SE.

In short, an independent Scotland as part of the EU is the ONLY way I can see us prospering, otherwise we'll be a disadvantaged region of a failing country held to ransom by an unhinged megalomaniac across the Atlantic.......................

[git-intae-thum]

Scotland and Norway both started extracting oil at the same time. Indeed Scotland has extracted more.

The Norwegian public purse has received 30 times the amount Scotlands has over the period.

Norway is now one of the richest countries in the world. Scotland is most certainly not.

The reason Norway is so so much wealthier is obvious. It is an independent nation.

Norway has been able to construct a fiscal framework that maximises Norway's resources for the benefit of Norway's people.

Scotland has not.

[Ross.]

1 hour ago, Blinky said:

Scotland would be financially worse off as an independent nation, doesn’t know which currency it will use, questions about its healthcare and unlikely a member of the EU. So you are Scottish, and you want Scotland to be worse off?

Scotland may be financially worse off, but there is no guarantee.

Currency is largely irrelevant. Scotland could use GBP, USD, EUR, CAD, AUD, JPY or the much vaunted Smackeroony for all it matters. A short term currency union with rUK while a separate Scottish currency is established would suit all parties and would likely happen if it came to it.

There are significant questions about healthcare across the UK, particularly as it is likely to be a key part of any trade deal with the US.

Scotland definitely won't be a member of the EU as part of the UK.

As far as the UK goes, you are seeing increasing levels of poverty, increasing levels of inequality, decreasing workers rights, the removal of EU membership, a constant weakening of the currency, an ever increasing national debt, an over reliance on the financial sector and service sector jobs, increasing household debt and decreasing public service standards pretty much across the board. I fail to see many positives for the UK remaining as it is.

[Ross.]

5 minutes ago, Blinky said:

Not knowing what currency you are going to have, having no plan in place and a deal with the Conservative government being unlikely will lead to economic and financial uncertainty. Saying currency is ‘largely irrelevant’ shows how unfortunately naive and uneducated on the issue you are.

The currency initially would be GBP. There would be a currency sharing agreement in the interim, while long term a Scottish currency would be set up and integrated.

Whatever government is in place in rUK at the time would be absolutely begging Scotland to retain GBP. Losing what Scotland brings to the balance of payments would see a huge drop in GBP.

Please desist with the personal abuse. It is a shame that British Nationalists always stoop to this.

[Ross.]

12 minutes ago, Blinky said:

It’s really not abuse. This post and your last one shows how misinformed you are on the issue. The SNP, in 2014, weakly proposed a currency union with the UK. This is practically and politically impossible and never going to happen under the great leadership of Boris Johnson. Sterlingisation and pegging both have a weak case, and the Euro is off the table now. This uncertainty would lead to an poor economic period for Scotland. Until Sturgeon and the SNP can provide a solid currency plan, indyref2 shouldn’t even be considered.

It would be an act of economic suicide for rUK to reject Sterlingisation initially. Despite the protestations of David Cameron at the time, everyone knows that rUK would be begging Scotland not to use another currency.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments

What would happen if Scotland and all it brings in was removed from the GBP balance of payments?

[NotThePars]

I've said it before, however one only need travel to the likes of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia or the Czech Republic to see how far these countries have come while we've gone backwards. They put us to shame and personally I don't blame the EU for that, I blame years of serious mismanagement / ignorance and general apathy by our OWN Governments towards most areas outwith London and the SE.

Viktor Orban’s Hungary is not a model for an independent Scotland and neither is Poland really even if I don’t disagree with much else of what you’ve said.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

 

Viktor Orban’s Hungary is not a model for an independent Scotland and neither is Poland really even if I don’t disagree with much else of what you’ve said.

 

I was speaking more from the perspective of investment as opposed to political leanings but I get what you're saying.

[Guest]

I don't know about anyone else but I personally feel that modern politics is suffering due to a focus on individual people and personalities, collective cliques and choreographed party lines and buzzwords rather than actually fighting elections and putting points across based upon REAL LIFE policies and situations.

As an example, why do opposition parties not question the UK having the highest pension age in the developed world ?

Why do they not question us having one of the most expensive public transport systems and indeed one of the poorest ?

Why is homelessness and inequality only paid lip service rather than portrayed as the complete and utter disgrace that it is, especially in the 21st century in a so called world leading country ??

Why is our financial system so blatantly criminal ? Where Directors can continuously commit fraud by overstating profits or stock or move their loss making areas in to a pre pack, screw their workforce, screw the tax payer and then continue to trade with their other businesses making million after million and yet nothing is done as it's all perfectly legal. Green, Oliver etc, etc.

In this era of the huge focus on "discrimination", why are banks permitted to use "tailored pricing" in all their products where the poor or less fortunate are penalised financially due to their circumstances ?? Why does nobody call this out ?? Is it fair that Rich bloke borrows £15k and pays back £16k but poor guy borrows the same £15k from the same bank under the same term but has to pay back £21k ??? Is that not discrimination ???

I believe all parties are being run by "analysts" and marketing people as opposed to real politicians and most often these analysts and PR people are completely out of touch with both the electorate and reality, hence many people feel completely disillusioned and disenfranchised with the system.

Would this change in an independent Scotland ? Who knows as the world is a pretty small place nowadays with many policies intertwined, however I do believe that Britain currently is one of the worst examples of a failed capitalist system which only benefits the richest, strongest and elite in our society and quite frankly ANY change away from this system could only be positive in my book..................

 

[doulikefish]

We are screwed...George Galloway is returning to the only country he doesnt want indy for

[Malky3]

3 hours ago, welshbairn said:

The EU exports to the EU amount to 8%, Uk to EU is 44%. The EU as a trading bloc has far more leverage in trade negotiations with the likes of the US than the UK will ever have on its own, they offer a much bigger market for American exporters. Scotland would get better deals as part of the EU than an isolationist UK.

That is utter conjecture. Not just because we have no idea what deals the UK will be able to get after Brexit, but also because we'll never get to find out what sort of terms a rather desperate Scottish Government would have to make to join the EU having told it's biggest customer base - the UK - to go and do one. 

 

[Malky3]

2 hours ago, WATTOO said:

We continuously go around in circles in this thread and get completely nowhere, simply because we can't use today's economic model to make assumptions on a future as an independent nation, whether that be part of, or outwith the European Union.

What we CAN do however, is look at the economic benefits that countries such as Ireland & Slovakia have gained since moving away from their domineering neighbours, in short they have flourished despite warnings of impending doom.

The bottom line is that Scotland has huge strategic value due to it's position within the continent, it also has a developed infrastructure, is stable politically and already adheres to all the required criteria set down by the European Union with regards to basic laws such as employment rights, anti corruption and legal representation. We have an educated population (for the most part) and all in all would be seen as an excellent addition to the EU collective, which of course would bring all the benefits if and when needed to advance our transport network and clean up our most deprived areas.

I've said it before, however one only need travel to the likes of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia or the Czech Republic to see how far these countries have come while we've gone backwards. They put us to shame and personally I don't blame the EU for that, I blame years of serious mismanagement / ignorance and general apathy by our OWN Governments towards most areas outwith London and the SE.

In short, an independent Scotland as part of the EU is the ONLY way I can see us prospering, otherwise we'll be a disadvantaged region of a failing country held to ransom by an unhinged megalomaniac across the Atlantic.......................

Ireland didn't flourish. Ireland had 80 years of economic strife after leaving the UK and it was ONLY when they finally joined the EU that they had a period of relative economic prosperity before going being bankrupted by the banking collapse in Ireland and economic stagnation yet again. If you think Ireland is a model we should follow you're barking mad. 

 

[Malky3]

2 hours ago, git-intae-thum said:

Scotland and Norway both started extracting oil at the same time. Indeed Scotland has extracted more.

The Norwegian public purse has received 30 times the amount Scotlands has over the period.

Norway is now one of the richest countries in the world. Scotland is most certainly not.

The reason Norway is so so much wealthier is obvious. It is an independent nation.

Norway has been able to construct a fiscal framework that maximises Norway's resources for the benefit of Norway's people.

Scotland has not.

So how does that paint Scotlands future? 

You are looking at a past model that Norway adopted that meant not spending all of their wealth as soon as they got it. Do you HONESTLY think that the people of Scotland would have tolerated their government hoarding money whilst allowing the steelworks and coal mines to shut down? Do you honestly think Scots would have been happy to see large Scottish Government fiscal reserves whilst living in the slum housing that existed in the 70s? 

And even if the Scottish public were prepared to see massive unemployment and slum housing throughout the 70's whilst the government hoarded piles of cash, how is that relevant today where oil revenues are still low and the Scottish Government still relies on Barnett Formula hand outs to balance Scotlands books? 

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by Malky3