Dunning1874 Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Highly unlikely IMHO. A second referendum would require another Referendum Act to be passed in Westminster. Do you honestly think that a future Conservative or Labour government would introduce and support it? While I think 2021 would be far too soon, if the SNP had an independence referendum as a manifesto commitment and were then elected as a majority government, all that would be achieved by the UK government attempting to stop them holding a referendum at all would be guaranteeing a Yes vote when it was eventually held. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 While I think 2021 would be far too soon, if the SNP had an independence referendum as a manifesto commitment and were then elected as a majority government, all that would be achieved by the UK government attempting to stop them holding a referendum at all would be guaranteeing a Yes vote when it was eventually held. The UK government cannot stop the Scottish government holding a referendum but such a referendum would only be consultative in the absence of another Referendum Act. Westminster has the supreme political, legislative and legal powers so the British government could simply ignore a Yes vote. The only possibility of the Act being passed is the SNP doing a deal with Labour at Westminster, possibly as part of a Coalition. Such a deal would kill off the Labour's future electoral prospects in England so the chances of it happening are negligible. If Scotland tried to declare UDI, it would have huge political and financial issues to address immediately, e.g. the currency, recognition by other countries and international bodies, borders, defence of its waters etc. The EU, under pressure from rUK, Spain and Italy, would refuse entry. In practice, who wins the independence/union argument or even the unilateral referendum is irrelevant. it's raw political and legal power that counts. The politicians in London and (to a lesser extent) Brussels, not Edinburgh, will always have the final say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Highly unlikely IMHO. A second referendum would require another Referendum Act to be passed in Westminster. Do you honestly think that a future Conservative or Labour government would introduce and support it? The previously unresolved issues would need to be dealt with or negotiated conclusively - EU membership, currency (Scottish Pound/Sterling/Euro), defence, government, debt allocation, etc. They would affect the polls and the result of a second referendum. Alex Salmond said that last year's referendum was a "once in a lifetime opportunity". He was right then and it's difficult to see how he could be proved wrong. If the UK gov refused a referendum it would be curtains for the union. They know it, I know it, everyone knows it... Apart from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 If the UK gov refused a referendum it would be curtains for the union. They know it, I know it, everyone knows it... Apart from you. Cameron has his overall majority and would simply ignore demands for another referendum. He's only got one MP in Scotland has very little to lose. His priority is to secure EVEL and have a bigger majority on English laws. Even if the Government introduced a new Referendum Bill, there is no guarantee that it would be passed. It would be opposed by a lot of Conservative, Labour MPs who have nothing but contempt for the SNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 If the UK gov refused a referendum it would be curtains for the union. They know it, I know it, everyone knows it... Apart from you. This. It will happen within next 10yrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 This. It will happen within next 10yrs Which party will introduce and pass the necessary legislation in Westminster? A Labour-SNP coalition government led by Jeremy Corbyn? The Conservative government has no incentive to antagonise its core vote or the pro-Union media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogmc Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 The UK government cannot stop the Scottish government holding a referendum but such a referendum would only be consultative in the absence of another Referendum Act. Westminster has the supreme political, legislative and legal powers so the British government could simply ignore a Yes vote. The only possibility of the Act being passed is the SNP doing a deal with Labour at Westminster, possibly as part of a Coalition. Such a deal would kill off the Labour's future electoral prospects in England so the chances of it happening are negligible. If Scotland tried to declare UDI, it would have huge political and financial issues to address immediately, e.g. the currency, recognition by other countries and international bodies, borders, defence of its waters etc. The EU, under pressure from rUK, Spain and Italy, would refuse entry. In practice, who wins the independence/union argument or even the unilateral referendum is irrelevant. it's raw political and legal power that counts. The politicians in London and (to a lesser extent) Brussels, not Edinburgh, will always have the final say. The eu wouldn't want see a nation with our oil agro and fisheries resources outside of the eu.....pragmatism rules in Brussels and if it was to piss off Westminster theyd see that as a welcome bonus. All of scotlands institutions and legislation are already eu compliant. Unionists waving loss of eu membership as a reason to stay in union are deluded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 The eu wouldn't want see a nation with our oil agro and fisheries resources outside of the eu.....pragmatism rules in Brussels and if it was to piss off Westminster theyd see that as a welcome bonus. All of scotlands institutions and legislation are already eu compliant. Unionists waving loss of eu membership as a reason to stay in union are deludedAnd even if they didn't want us would anyone who had just voted yes actually give a shit ? I think it would be a big "f**k ye then" from an entire country if Brussels decided to play hard ball. Not that that would ever happen of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Any chance of posting the poll on how the majority of the electorate feel the Scottish Government is performing at present. They've got plenty of time to continue on this downward spiral, before people decide whether the SNP are fit to govern an independent Scotland again, because let's face it, they are going to be the only choice eh!? Another five years is about right to judge and reverse the trend. It isn't the Nap you think it is Stubbsy. We'll beg to differ then. First of all the SNP's record running a devolved government is by no means the be all and end all for Independence. It's mostly No voters who seem to focus on this is a slowly shrinking group of people (imo). There's nothing one political party could do to make me think Scotland couldn't or shouldn't be an independent country. Secondly even if it was, "downward spiral" definitely aren't the words I'd choose to describe the SNP's popularity. They're 3/1 to win every mainland constituency seat in the country ffs. They're pretty much running out of ways to pump every opposition party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim O'Grady Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I saw a car (in Edinburgh) today with YES2 stickers in the windaes. I've still got my original ones in. But what if when Westminster allow another referendum they say it has to say on the ballot paper. Do you want to stay part of the UK? That would be a pisher eh? Grimbo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 The eu wouldn't want see a nation with our oil agro and fisheries resources outside of the eu.....pragmatism rules in Brussels and if it was to piss off Westminster theyd see that as a welcome bonus. All of scotlands institutions and legislation are already eu compliant. Unionists waving loss of eu membership as a reason to stay in union are deluded And even if they didn't want us would anyone who had just voted yes actually give a shit ? I think it would be a big "f**k ye then" from an entire country if Brussels decided to play hard ball. Not that that would ever happen of course. Don't bet on it. Scotland's entry would set a precedent. The EU and powerful Member States have vital vested interests that will override institutional pragmatism. The Spanish government, worried about growing support for Basque Nationalism and Catalonian independence, has said that it would veto iScotland's entry. The last thing that the EU wants is for Spain's richest regions to break away. Belgium is in a similar position as the Flemish independence parties are gaining popularity. The New Flemish Alliance, largest party in Flanders and the Belgian Parliaments, wants Flemish independence inside the EU. Vlaams Belang also supports Flemish independence but outside the EU. The EU, based in Flanders, would do anything to thwart Belgian separation. Italy is concerned that support for independence in Venice is about 60%. Then there is the Lega Nord which has campaigned for Padanian independence. ETA - For clarification, as a localist rather than a nationalist, I support the independence parties. But I am a realist too and recognise that that the supra-national institutions like the EU will do everything to stop them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 My attitude towards Europe is pretty different from a UK and Scotland perspective. At the moment, I don't feel even slightly more represented by a Tory MP in Oxfordshire than I do a Belgian MEP. I'd be happy for Britan to cede way more power to Europe if anything. If Scotland was a sovereign state, it'd be a different story for me. I'd probably just about favour EU membership but I wouldn't be that bothered if didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Don't bet on it. Scotland's entry would set a precedent. The EU and powerful Member States have vital vested interests that will override institutional pragmatism. The Spanish government, worried about growing support for Basque Nationalism and Catalonian independence, has said that it would veto iScotland's entry. The last thing that the EU wants is for Spain's richest regions to break away. Belgium is in a similar position as the Flemish independence parties are gaining popularity. The New Flemish Alliance, largest party in Flanders and the Belgian Parliaments, wants Flemish independence inside the EU. Vlaams Belang also supports Flemish independence but outside the EU. The EU, based in Flanders, would do anything to thwart Belgian separation. Italy is concerned that support for independence in Venice is about 60%. Then there is the Lega Nord which has campaigned for Padanian independence. ETA - For clarification, as a localist rather than a nationalist, I support the independence parties. But I am a realist too and recognise that that the supra-national institutions like the EU will do everything to stop them. Scotland would get in to the EU no problem at all, if it wanted to. No point going round in circles. If you genuinely believe that Spain would veto us then fair enough. We'll agree to disagree. Not that I would give the shiniest of shites whether we were in or not. It's the lopsided union closer to home that bothers me more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Scotland would get in to the EU no problem at all, if it wanted to. No point going round in circles. If you genuinely believe that Spain would veto us then fair enough. We'll agree to disagree. Not that I would give the shiniest of shites whether we were in or not. It's the lopsided union closer to home that bothers me more. Fair enough. I would pleased if any EU Member State vetoed an independent Scotland. It would have total control of its laws. We'd be better off out of the EU and in EFTA instead like Norway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Fair enough. I would pleased if any EU Member State vetoed an independent Scotland. It would have total control of its laws. We'd be better off out of the EU and in EFTA instead like Norway. ^ukiper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 ^ukiper I have no time at all for UKIP or Farage. They don't have a monopoly on campaigning to leave the EU. Labour included EU withdrawal in its 1983 manifesto when Michael Foot was leader. Tony Benn and Eric Heffer are just two leading left-wingers who opposed EU membership. Bob Crow founded the NO2EU party in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 My attitude towards Europe is pretty different from a UK and Scotland perspective. At the moment, I don't feel even slightly more represented by a Tory MP in Oxfordshire than I do a Belgian MEP. I'd be happy for Britan to cede way more power to Europe if anything. Leaving all my morals at the door, I wouldn't say no to the Tory MP for Oxford West representing me, if you know what I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Exactly what I predict http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/13713599.Scots_will_vote_Yes_to_independence_in_2021__predicts_Blair_Jenkins/?ref=ebln Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevthedee Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Exactly what I predict http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/13713599.Scots_will_vote_Yes_to_independence_in_2021__predicts_Blair_Jenkins/?ref=ebln So he was a Former head of bbc news scotland, going by the logic of yes voters on here that means he is corrupt,biased and talks a load of s**t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 So he was a Former head of bbc news scotland, going by the logic of yes voters on here that means he is corrupt,biased and talks a load of s**t. The clue is in the word 'former'. He led the yes campaign and was quite critical about the state broadcaster. As usual Kevboy, im struggling to understand your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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