welshbairn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 With all the excitement over matched betting (which I don't really understand and would probably screw it up by being greedy if I tried) I thought I'd do a totally unscientific experiment to see how the returns for 30 days of normal punting might compare. I'll be sticking to a daily £10 treble and aiming for an average return of £300 so if I win once over the 30 days I break even. It's also a way of controlling my betting a bit which got a bit silly over Christmas with too many big accas and daft perms, despite having a few decent wins in December. I realise this topic may not be of interest to most people and I would urge people strongly not to take my bets as tips, but selfishly I hope posting the bets and outcomes on here will help me keep to the discipline. If anyone else wants to join in and post their own bets feel free. Day 1. (started yesterday) So Pot stands at £21 with £11 profit. Day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hampden Diehard Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'll watch with interest. I think betting's a mugs game (I always lost when I used to do it!) and guys I know who do bet either win or are only ever beaten by one game for a small fortune (aye, right), but watching this thread should be entertaining. As an aside,I think it's incredible that you can bet on under-20 matches. All the very best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo Stu Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Well I, for one, can see this being a spectacular success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davi3j Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Well I, for one, can see this being a spectacular success. If WB hits some wins, he could be better off than doing matched betting, but he could equally be out of pocket, but with matched betting you are guaranteed not to be out of pocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boostin' Kev Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Good idea, you won't match chapsticks but could end up similar to someone like myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Good idea, you won't match chapsticks but could end up similar to someone like myself. As Viper says it's like comparing apples and pears really. BTW chapstick's profits are considerably boosted by an inadvertent mug punt he made, they could have been reduced by £471 if the result had gone the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boostin' Kev Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You said in the first post you were running this as a comparison so it's not really apples and oranges. Fair point about chapticks but even without that I'd be surprised if you matched him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 You said in the first post you were running this as a comparison so it's not really apples and oranges. Fair point about chapticks but even without that I'd be surprised if you matched him. The battle between mugs and matchers is just for fun really, even if I pump you lot senseless it won't prove anything, I could just as easily lose every bet next time around. Well, I could if I didn't have a pet spider telling what games to pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boostin' Kev Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It'll be interesting, looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Update. Think I might allow myself to take cash outs in this experiment, was well tempted when Toon equalized, only £47 though with the the other 2 bets ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
54_and_counting Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Update. bet3.JPG Think I might allow myself to take cash outs in this experiment, was well tempted when Toon equalized, only £47 though with the the other 2 bets ahead. what made you bet against deportivo, shocking odds on them tonight, every bookie had them as stone cold favs and they got horsed all ends up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 what made you bet against deportivo, shocking odds on them tonight, every bookie had them as stone cold favs and they got horsed all ends up Bookies odds aren't about who they think will win, it's about how much money is piling in on which side. Around the world everyone's heard of Deportivo but who's heard of Mirandes? My tactic is to think punters tend to go for the famous teams so the bookies are forced to go along with it. Had a quick look at both teams records though, home and away. And more importantly I saw Deportivo play live a month or so ago, and remembered that they had a fixed way of playing that didn't change when the opposition went on full on attack and were very lucky to survive against Las Palmas. So a lower league team like Mirandes might have had a chance if they had a real go is what I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Day 3. Pot is £1, £9 down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well that was shit.. Day 4 Pot is zero, down £19 There weren't many games to choose from for tomorrow so the potential return is low, only £110, but the last couple were 4-5 hundred so I'm vaguely sticking to the £300 average target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo Stu Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 You seem to have a nack for picking long odds winners. Picking 3 though is tough. I know it's just a bit of fun but why not scale back to singles? I'd be predict you'd do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 If I get to twenty trebles without a win I might change the rules as you suggest, but at the moment I'm quite enjoying the restriction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 Looking good in a bar in Ullapool with no Wifi. Will probably go conservative again tomorrow with few games to choose from, but a bet that will shake the Y fronts loose from the matchers is coming on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 A return of £108.38 from Day 4 leaves me in profit to the tune of £79.38. Day 5 bet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Shite, 2 late penalties for Nice did for me. Profit now £69.38. Already have tomorrow's bet down as was wary of odds movement. Will post it later from laptop in hotel room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 Day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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