General Politics Thread

[capybara]

Looking forward to seeing Englands gers figures

Are Scottish exports that go from English ports in the English figures?

[doulikefish]

Are Scottish exports that go from English ports in the English figures?

Well they seemingly have a 4 billion plus whisky industry down there.

[capybara]

Exactly

[Ad Lib]

18 minutes ago, capybara said:

Are Scottish exports that go from English ports in the English figures?

This is a load of nonsense. Tax revenue from the spirits industry that takes place in Scotland is allocated to Scotland. It is not allocated based on whether it leaves via an English port. Like, read page 7 of GERS. It addresses this directly:

Q: How do taxes from the whisky industry feature in the GERS estimates?

A: Like any industry, the whisky industry‟s activity in Scotland generates tax revenue through a range of sources, such as corporation tax on profits, income tax and national insurance contributions on staff earnings, and non-domestic rates payments on business premises. These are all captured in the estimates of Scottish public sector receipts reported in GERS. In addition, whisky consumed in the UK is subject to VAT and alcohol duty. This is assigned to Scotland on the basis of how much is consumed in Scotland. Whisky which is exported does not generate UK VAT or alcohol duty. There is no export duty in the UK.

[doulikefish]

Looking forward to seeing Englands gers figures

Anyone?I mean surely they must publish each of the other 3 countries thats in the union

[Ad Lib]

5 hours ago, renton said:

Basically, despite the collapse in oil revenues from last year to this, Scotland's onshore revenue picked up the slack to leave us more or less in the same place as we were. Interestingly, while Scotland's deficit increased by 0.3%, the UK one increased by 0.7%.

Bollocks.

The UK's current budget balance and net fiscal balance both fell in absolute terms and as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product from 2014-15 to 2015-16 according to GERS. In contrast, the current budget balance for Scotland rose substantially and the net fiscal balance fell by nothing like as much as the UK. Here they are:

 

The current budget balance of Scotland:

2014-15  £11.9 billion (7.8 per cent of GDP)

2015-16  £12.6 billion (8.1 per cent of GDP)

Rise of 0.3% - So far so good

 

The current budget balance of the UK

2014-15  £59.8 billion (3.3 per cent of GDP)

2015-16  £41.5 billion (2.2 per cent of GDP)

Fall of 1.1% - Oh dear, literally the opposite of what you claimed

 

The net fiscal balance of Scotland

2014-15 £14.9 billion (9.7 per cent of GDP)

2015-16 £14.8 billion (9.5 per cent of GDP)

 

The net fiscal balance of the UK

2014-15 £89.1 billion (4.9 per cent of GDP)

2015-16 £75.3 billion (4.0 per cent of GDP)

Edited August 24, 2016 by Ad Lib
I've just noticed what you did wrong. You compared 2014-15's UK current fiscal balance with 2015-16's net fiscal balance. That was a bit stupid wasn't it?

[Ad Lib]

2 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Anyone?I mean surely they must publish each of the other 3 countries thats in the union

Why would the Scottish Government do that?

[doulikefish]

Why would the Scottish Government do that?

Who mentioned the sg?

[Ad Lib]

Just now, doulikefish said:

Who mentioned the sg?

Do you even know what "GERS" stands for you plamph? Asking for "England's GERS figures" is like asking for Celtic's Rangers Supporters Club.

[doulikefish]

Do you even know what "GERS" stands for you plamph? Asking for "England's GERS figures" is like asking for Celtic's Rangers Supporters Club.

Lol plamph

[doulikefish]

Lol plamph

Im sure everyone apart from yourself understood what i meant there but knock yourself out with a 5 paragraph reply

[renton]

13 minutes ago, Ad Lib said:

Bollocks.

The UK's current budget balance and net fiscal balance both fell in absolute terms and as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product from 2014-15 to 2015-16 according to GERS. In contrast, the current budget balance for Scotland rose substantially and the net fiscal balance fell by nothing like as much as the UK. Here they are:

 

The current budget balance of Scotland:

2014-15  £11.9 billion (7.8 per cent of GDP)

2015-16  £12.6 billion (8.1 per cent of GDP)

Rise of 0.3% - So far so good

 

The current budget balance of the UK

2014-15  £59.8 billion (3.3 per cent of GDP)

2015-16  £41.5 billion (2.2 per cent of GDP)

Fall of 1.1% - Oh dear, literally the opposite of what you claimed

 

The net fiscal balance of Scotland

2014-15 £14.9 billion (9.7 per cent of GDP)

2015-16 £14.8 billion (9.5 per cent of GDP)

 

The net fiscal balance of the UK

2014-15 £89.1 billion (4.9 per cent of GDP)

2015-16 £75.3 billion (4.0 per cent of GDP)

Meh, I had the wrong figures.

 

I'm guessing the current GERS figures destroy any notion of independence from your point? Did you not claim that the last set of figures would require the immolation of the Scottish public realm to balance the books?

[Ad Lib]

4 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Im sure everyone apart from yourself understood what i meant there but knock yourself out with a 5 paragraph reply

You are exactly the sort of person who would be complaining here if the UK Government were responsible for producing figures for all 4 nations of the UK on an equivalent basis to GERS. We'd hear all the bias nonsense with dials up to max. If the Welsh and/or Northern Irish Assemblies want to produce their own equivalent that's up to them. Such is the relative size of England, there is very little to be gained from it conducting the same exercise separately from the UK figures as a whole. England comprises such a large part of the UK economy that any deviations would not normally be statistically significant.

If you want to talk about a much more elaborate, complex and expensive undertaking to measure the extent to which English regions, none of which have substantial independence movements, to see the extent to which they were fiscally self-sustaining or subsidised, be my guest.

[doulikefish]

You are exactly the sort of person who would be complaining here if the UK Government were responsible for producing figures for all 4 nations of the UK on an equivalent basis to GERS. We'd hear all the bias nonsense with dials up to max. If the Welsh and/or Northern Irish Assemblies want to produce their own equivalent that's up to them. Such is the relative size of England, there is very little to be gained from it conducting the same exercise separately from the UK figures as a whole. England comprises such a large part of the UK economy that any deviations would not normally be statistically significant.

If you want to talk about a much more elaborate, complex and expensive undertaking to measure the extent to which English regions, none of which have substantial independence movements, to see the extent to which they were fiscally self-sustaining or subsidised, be my guest.

To short wont read

[Ad Lib]

5 minutes ago, renton said:

Meh, I had the wrong figures.

 

I'm guessing the current GERS figures destroy any notion of independence from your point? Did you not claim that the last set of figures would require the immolation of the Scottish public realm to balance the books?

It means any case for independence that isn't predicated on about £9 billion of structural cuts and tax rises to get to the UK's equivalent fiscal position isn't credible.

Edited August 24, 2016 by Ad Lib

[williemillersmoustache]

How much is trident again?

[Ad Lib]

Just now, williemillersmoustache said:

How much is trident again?

At the moment, the running costs of Trident represent between 5 and 6% of the total defence budget. The budget of the MoD is about £45 billion. Trident has in recent years cost between £2.5-2.8 billion a year. That cost is spread across the whole of the UK. Scotland is assigned a per-capita defence budget spend in GERS of about £3 billion. Working on that basis the notional Scottish contribution to trident is about £250 million a year.

If we include the costs of renewing the Vanguard submarines, the additional capital expenditure in the last five years was estimated at about £550-600million a year, again spread across the whole of the UK. The notional Scottish contribution, therefore, is about £45 million.

That means in total Scotland probably contributes about £300 million a year, notionally, towards Trident. This represents:

2.4% of our current fiscal balance

2.0% of our net fiscal balance

3.5% of the amount by which we are effectively subsidised by a fiscal transfer by the UK as a whole

 

Pocket money, in other words.

[renton]

Just now, Ad Lib said:

It means any case for independence that isn't predicated on about £9 billion of cuts and tax rises to get to the UK's equivalent fiscal position isn't credible.

On what deficit reduction time scale, months, years, a decade? Based on what level of liabilities assumed by the new Scottish state? Do we need to get to the same relative fiscal position as the rUK? It seems unlikely that any new case for independence will include the currency union of the last one, so the whole thing becomes complicated by the interest rates set around a new Scottish currency I guess. How about Brexit? One of the big lags on the UK vs Scotland is in income tax take, is it not a real possibility then, that Brexit will cause a flight of capital and industry - particularly financial - to a Scotland in the EU, dramatically changing in a short few years the potential tax base of Scotland? Will not an independent Scotland with it's own immigration policy not have a similar effect? Does all this not show that trying to pin any case for independence to GERS figures is not a particulalry illuminating exercise, given that it reflects only the current devolution settlement in the UK, rather than projecting the possible options for an independent Scotland in the future?

If a future poll does not make a case for £9 billion in cuts/tax rises central to it's programme, will you not support it - will that over ride your pro-European sensibilities and commit yourself to Brexit UK?

[renton]

Just now, Ad Lib said:

At the moment, the running costs of Trident represent between 5 and 6% of the total defence budget. The budget of the MoD is about £45 billion. Trident has in recent years cost between £2.5-2.8 billion a year. That cost is spread across the whole of the UK. Scotland is assigned a per-capita defence budget spend in GERS of about £3 billion. Working on that basis the notional Scottish contribution to trident is about £250 million a year.

If we include the costs of renewing the Vanguard submarines, the additional capital expenditure in the last five years was estimated at about £550-600million a year, again spread across the whole of the UK. The notional Scottish contribution, therefore, is about £45 million.

That means in total Scotland probably contributes about £300 million a year, notionally, towards Trident. This represents:

2.4% of our current fiscal balance

2.0% of our net fiscal balance

3.5% of the amount by which we are effectively subsidised by a fiscal transfer by the UK as a whole

 

Pocket money, in other words.

Not so much Trident, but there is certainly a defence overspend in Scotland with respect ot the actual units raised and stationed here, in otherwords a potential dividend of between £1.5 to £2 billion without really doing anything, not obviously anywhere close to closing the deficit, but certainly a low hanging fruit.

Any estimates on how much we pay into UK capital and non devolved spending, Crossrail, HS2 and the like, and how much we'd save via divorce?

[williemillersmoustache]

3 minutes ago, Ad Lib said:

At the moment, the running costs of Trident represent between 5 and 6% of the total defence budget. The budget of the MoD is about £45 billion. Trident has in recent years cost between £2.5-2.8 billion a year. That cost is spread across the whole of the UK. Scotland is assigned a per-capita defence budget spend in GERS of about £3 billion. Working on that basis the notional Scottish contribution to trident is about £250 million a year.

If we include the costs of renewing the Vanguard submarines, the additional capital expenditure in the last five years was estimated at about £550-600million a year, again spread across the whole of the UK. The notional Scottish contribution, therefore, is about £45 million.

That means in total Scotland probably contributes about £300 million a year, notionally, towards Trident. This represents:

2.4% of our current fiscal balance

2.0% of our net fiscal balance

3.5% of the amount by which we are effectively subsidised by a fiscal transfer by the UK as a whole

 

Pocket money, in other words.

They made it quite clear in parliament that they have no fucking idea how much it will cost. Thanks for the typically lengthy and incongruous reply tho.