Motherwell FC - A Thread For All Seasons

[RandomGuy.]

3 minutes ago, welldaft said:

Certainly it looks like for the foreseeable future we would be unable to compete with every top flights side bar from maybe Livingston, St Johnstone and St Mirren.

Discovered a few days ago that St Mirren are one of only two teams who havent started paying back their covid loan yet.

Be interesting where they end up once they burn through that money then have to pay it back in a lump sum.

A lot riding on them making Europe this year. 

[welldaft]

4 minutes ago, Casagolda said:

The current Scottish Football Writers Player of the year came through our academy just last season.  

Meanwhile Lennon Miller, widely acknowledged to be one of the brightest young talents in Scotland, is contracted with us until 2026. Which, if the club play it right, should be another 7 figure fee received for an academy product to add to Turnbull and Scott in recent years.  

Not to mention what we got in compensation/fee’s for the likes of Hastie, Campbell, Johnston, Cornelius, McAlear and McKinstry etc. Or what a lot of these boys have contributed to the first team during their time at the club. 

We’ve always lost a few, always will- it’s the nature of the beast. However any plan going forward that involves cuts to or has a negative impact on the academy would be a major no no for me. 

I understand all that. And it would be last on my list also.

However the problem we face is if we have to save circa £500k PA as an example then something has to give and cuts will have to be made. All whilst protecting the 1st team squad to keep us competitive in whatever league we are in. 

I certainly hope it does not come to that. I am merely making suggestions at where cuts could be targeted. 

 

[welldaft]

5 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Discovered a few days ago that St Mirren are one of only two teams who havent started paying back their covid loan yet.

Be interesting where they end up once they burn through that money then have to pay it back in a lump sum.

A lot riding on them making Europe this year. 

I was probably going to add a rider on St Mirren. They are probably similar to us but a year or so behind. They don’t have an owner with deep pockets and are fan owned. Their crowds are up and have finished in decent league positions and will again this year. But it will become harder to do so like we are finding out just now. 

[thisGRAEME]

St. Mirren are also, y'know, operating with a clear business plan and strategy to grow the support and the club.

It's almost like having a chief exec, board and club in general working towards a common goal with an idea of the benefits that can bring has a tangible effect on the way in which your club operates.

Rather than, for example, just sticking a wee £17,000 video out there with the hope that someone will see it and give you money. 

[wellboy1991]

2 minutes ago, thisGRAEME said:

St. Mirren are also, y'know, operating with a clear business plan and strategy to grow the support and the club.

It's almost like having a chief exec, board and club in general working towards a common goal with an idea of the benefits that can bring has a tangible effect on the way in which your club operates.

Rather than, for example, just sticking a wee £17,000 video out there with the hope that someone will see it and give you money. 

They also didn’t spend or have to spend a couple million on a pitch and f**k ups to the stadium. Let’s not forget that aswell. That money by us could Definately have been spent elsewhere. 

[YassinMoutaouakil]

Moving away from fan ownership probably sounds like the "riskier" option but I'm not fully sure it is. Genuinely the way I see it is if we stick with the current setup then most seasons for the foreseeable will be spent hoping someone else does a Livi this season or a 2023 Dundee United until our luck runs out and we go down. Its fair enough to say that we're "due" a relegation and that it wouldn't be the end of the world but also that it doesn't mean we have to just accept it years in advance. 

Unless we manage to do zero due diligence and hand the club over to the worst shysters in the world I don't think the outside investment route has any more of an obvious downside than the status quo. Best case scenario everything does work out as planned and we're able to punch above our weight/box clever etc. Worst case scenario is what, we end up in the Championship anyway? Maybe League One? Falkirk are the obvious cautionary tale but they're notable mainly for how ludicrous it is for a club with our sort of fanbase to end up in the third tier for this length of time. 

I'm maybe being naive but for the size of club we are, unless we end up totally asset stripped or something I think most likely bottom out as a midtable Championship team in the medium to long term. Feels like we might as well roll the dice to try and avoid that- with the addendum that if things work out it doesn't actually take that much to go right for us to finish 3rd, 4th or 5th in the top flight.

[Handsome_Devil]

1 hour ago, Vietnam91 said:

caveat: In a poor year with no player sales, two early cup exits, not paying for 6 managers and assistants simultaneously.

The club's previous model was basically three year accounting where we plan to overspend by X compared to what we know we'll definitely make on two years but nibble away at that with small transfers or slightly higher finishes and every third year have a big sale or significant over performance. And tbf, that has pretty much worked.

The obvious issue is when the planned overspend needed to be competitive gets higher and higher the room for error is less and less.

This is where our stagnation/extended transition off the park has been killing us. A new CEO will take a little of column A and a little of column B and try to make things add up but to massively simplify things:

Hypothetical boss A, let's call him Werek Deir, looks at firstly at incomings and his priority is to cut outgoings to match.

Hypothetical boss B, let's call him, er Rrant Gussel, looks first at outgoings and his priority is to raise incomings to match.

Boss A brings huge sporting risk - we're eventually going to relegated - but financially we're totally safe long-term. Ask Mr Micawber.

Boss B has less short-term sporting risk but much more immediate financial risk. It costs money to grow revenues and there's no guarantee it'll work. And if it goes wrong the sporting risk obviously goes up as you pay it off.

Now rather than really risk the farm by going to investors, I would much prefer the calculated risk of Boss B...will it work? f**k knows but if it goes wrong there are plenty ways to salvage things which don't endanger the existence of the club, even it'll likely come with the prospect of relegation - however given we're looking at that in the next two to three years anyway if we do nothing, personally this risk-reward ratio is infinitely more palatable.

[eliphas]

23 minutes ago, thisGRAEME said:

St. Mirren are also, y'know, operating with a clear business plan and strategy to grow the support and the club.

Aye they nicked it from us. The absolute scoundrels. 

[thisGRAEME]

3 minutes ago, eliphas said:

Aye they nicked it from us. The absolute scoundrels. 

Well as (presumably) as much of a gag as this is, it does speak to again; things like 'succession planning' and 'talent identification'. 

So y'know, stuff that businesses do!

[CoF]

I like to think Kettlewell also found out about his extension in the middle of the AGM. 

[crazylegsjoe_mfc]

Regardless of my view on what he's done well, what he's done badly and what's been out of his control, I actually feel really sorry for Ketts on how this has new has been presented.

The club could have and should have announced this at the end of the last season, when the extension kicked in. I'm sure eyebrows would have been raised, given what happened with Alexander's extension, but surely there's no better time to announce it? Obviously, due to form, but mainly because that was when it was kicking in?

There are obviously two very different ways to look at our form. The optimists will say 2 defeats in 10, the pessimists 2 wins in 22 - but I'm sure even the most glass half-full among us would agree that a contract extension announcement for any manager with the latter stat is only going to heap more unwanted pressure on him.

He now has to navigate the rest of the season with many of the supporters now not only just raging about our form, but now also raging that he has a contract extension.

[capt_oats]

A point that has kind of got lost in all of this (especially the hand-wringing about plugging shortfalls etc) is that through the fan-ownership model the club has actually been profitable.

Posted it before but these are our Profit/Losses since 16/17:

16/17: (£104,000)
17/18: £1,720,000
18/19: (£436,000)
19/20: £346,590
20/21: £3,575,615
21/22: (£1,082,000)
22/23: (£1,605,000)

Net profit: £2,415,205

Yes, that profit is largely generated by a quirk in which we reached two cup finals and sold 1 (ONE) generational talent but there's a certain mentality from folk who are talking like us posting £1.6m losses has been a regular occurrence or that that's an amount the amount that needs to be bridged when it's simply not the case.

Sure, that's the loss in the last financial year but that's easily explainable...we were cash rich with £4.2m in the bank so spent a chunk of it on capital investment projects.

Presumably if we hadn't had £4.2m sat in the bank we wouldn't have been spending £1.2m on a pitch. We spent that money because we had it (and the work needed done).

@thisGRAEME's post above really speaks to where it seems things have gone wrong post-Burrows and I'd ask the question as to how much the current board have actively sought investment or progressed any sort of strategy to grow the club?

We absolutely need fresh investment but as I said it at the time when McMahon's video went live that was not the work of serious people.

Having read @JayMFC's posts both here and on SO along with hearing both Sean and Derek last night it feels like there's a willingness to treat the WS with a degree of seriousness rather than have it stymied by a bowling club mentality.

Edited February 23 by capt_oats

[MurrayWell]

23 minutes ago, crazylegsjoe_mfc said:

Regardless of my view on what he's done well, what he's done badly and what's been out of his control, I actually feel really sorry for Ketts on how this has new has been presented.

Absolutely, feel for Kettlewell big time here. Those in charge have hung him out to dry, probably not intentionally but I'm past trying to find logic and reason in some of the bizarre decisions, or non-decisions, McMahon and Co have made recently. Today's statement is absolutely shambolic, and I don't mean the extension itself, that's another debate. 

Those currently running the club have learned the hard way that their communications haven't been good, despite what their echo chamber may tell them, and, whether they like it or not, it's actually important to keep fans informed. 

Edited February 22 by MurrayWell

[eliphas]

1 hour ago, thisGRAEME said:

Well as (presumably) as much of a gag as this is, it does speak to again; things like 'succession planning' and 'talent identification'. 

So y'know, stuff that businesses do!

It was an incredibly funny gag. Correct. 

I'd like all that stuff you mention.

[Randolphtops]

2 hours ago, YassinMoutaouakil said:

Moving away from fan ownership probably sounds like the "riskier" option but I'm not fully sure it is. Genuinely the way I see it is if we stick with the current setup then most seasons for the foreseeable will be spent hoping someone else does a Livi this season or a 2023 Dundee United until our luck runs out and we go down. Its fair enough to say that we're "due" a relegation and that it wouldn't be the end of the world but also that it doesn't mean we have to just accept it years in advance. 

Unless we manage to do zero due diligence and hand the club over to the worst shysters in the world I don't think the outside investment route has any more of an obvious downside than the status quo. Best case scenario everything does work out as planned and we're able to punch above our weight/box clever etc. Worst case scenario is what, we end up in the Championship anyway? Maybe League One? Falkirk are the obvious cautionary tale but they're notable mainly for how ludicrous it is for a club with our sort of fanbase to end up in the third tier for this length of time. 

I'm maybe being naive but for the size of club we are, unless we end up totally asset stripped or something I think most likely bottom out as a midtable Championship team in the medium to long term. Feels like we might as well roll the dice to try and avoid that- with the addendum that if things work out it doesn't actually take that much to go right for us to finish 3rd, 4th or 5th in the top flight.

The quality of the debate here and on SO is really good, no matter where you are on the fan ownership is sacrosant scale some great points have been raised, but this post has struck a chord with me, its where I am at moment (as a shareholder and WS member)

[Handsome_Devil]

Just now, MurrayWell said:

Absolutely, feel for Kettlewell big time here, those in charge have hung him out to dry, probably not intentionally but I'm past trying to find logic and reason in some of the bizarre decisions, or non-decisions, McMahon and Co have made recently. Today's statement is absolutely shambolic, and I don't mean the extension itself, that's another debate. 

Those currently running the club have learned the hard way that their communications haven't been good, despite what their echo chamber may tell them, and, whether they like it or not, it's actually important to keep fans informed. 

Off the top of my head that's SOD, McGinn, Mahon and now the actual manager who have had an extra year somehow which nobody saw coming. There's no way this was an accident or coincidence. And given most of these, had they been clauses, would have been considered fair I have no problem with any of them.

But...how many people actually knew we had a manager for next season? The fucking Society board didn't. How could JM and DW possibly think this was justifiable behaviour?! And that's not just a question of comms to the public but reporting back to the actual owners of the business how you've dealt with arguably the most key member staff in the club. 

As for the glib comment about it coming to attention on 'social media', it has been the main discussion of every Motherwell spot online, every pub chat and at every game for months...how the hell can you tell an AGM with a straight face you're surprised there's confusion?!

I'm very forgiving of mistakes in the club but this one, and all it symbolises, is very close to making their positions immediately untenable.

Jesus Christ, that's the blood pressure away again having calmed earlier...I imagine it was only utter shock that stopped those there asking wtaf they were playing at. f**k sake, I'm off for a lie down!

[crazylegsjoe_mfc]

1 minute ago, Handsome_Devil said:

Off the top of my head that's SOD, McGinn, Mahon and now the actual manager who have had an extra year somehow which nobody saw coming.

Joe Efford as well. We tried all summer to get rid of someone, we all thought was out of contract in May.

[YassinMoutaouakil]

Did Obika not just sort of hang about too?

[Handsome_Devil]

1 minute ago, YassinMoutaouakil said:

Did Obika not just sort of hang about too?

No, tbf he signed a new one-year deal with an option... unspecified ofc. Given recent evidence suggests it's simply a requirement to still be alive, I fully expect he'll be on our treatment table next season.

[StAndrew7]

6 minutes ago, Handsome_Devil said:

No, tbf he signed a new one-year deal with an option... unspecified ofc. Given recent evidence suggests it's simply a requirement to still be alive, I fully expect he'll be on our treatment table next season.

The option for a further year is in the post the club made last summer when he signed https://www.motherwellfc.co.uk/2023/06/19/jon-obika-returns/) (unless you mean unspecified in the terms of what triggers it, in which case fair enough).

I assume that's at the discretion of the club rather than the player, which was alluded to last night during the discussions.

Edited February 22 by StAndrew7