Double Winning St Johnstone FC Thread

[PauloPerth]

Davidson was the right appointment. Still confident he'll come good and this period will be the making of him.

Dont agree with you RG about the squad. We were comfortably a top 8 squad at absolute minimum.  I still think we are in terms of quality, though results don't back that.  We turned our season around when Gordon got fit and also when McCart came in and we played 5-3-2.  If we started this season playing that way, or at least were prepared to mix it up more, we'd be well above where we are now.  Davidson's biggest error has been his inflexibility from moving away from a system that didn't get us goals at home, brought us very few clean sheets and not enough points.  There was a blind hope that our luck would turn rather than making the necessary adjustments to the set up.

Every error has been punished and we've probably not carried a lot of luck in terms of big refereeing decisions, though I don't accept those are reasonable excuses; deal with it and get on with it.

No need to panic. The players are good enough.  Time for them all to stop feeling sorry for themselves and deliver. 

[Radford]

5 minutes ago, Dick Van Dyke said:

Would you stick with him even if he takes us down? 

Think you need to wait and see but at the moment, I feel he'll build something good.

[Jamie_B]

The most infuriating thing this season has to be Dundee United consistently doing the absolute opposite of what we’ve been doing - namely taking points from games they’ve barely been in like today’s at Motherwell.

Next two games are a must win really. Do that and we take ourselves a good distance away from the real danger and give ourselves something to build on. Two defeats is unthinkable.

[The Real Saints]

Oaft.
There was this one time near Tannadice......

I didn’t realise that I’m the manager of a prodigious football club, Tam.

[tree house tam]

17 minutes ago, The Real Saints said:

 

I didn’t realise that I’m the manager of a prodigious football club, Tam.

 

He can talk like a wet wipe to the media all he wants. He's no Tommy Wright I'll give you that but he does have some redeeming skills. I don't think it's helping him that much knowing the squad as well as he does,  the players with questionable attitudes are playing up to type at the minute, Cal Hendry has attitude and can't keep his mouth shut and MOH is just a pretty thick footballer, both either need a punch in the puss and told to wisen up or GTF out of St Johnstone. If I was Callum I'd probably do both. 

We can all accept individual mistakes, they happen. It just seems that every player is having one week after week, that can't continue to happen. He has to deal with that and that'll be very new to him, let's just hope it's a pressure that he thrives on.

[RandomGuy.]

39 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

Dont agree with you RG about the squad. We were comfortably a top 8 squad at absolute minimum.  I still think we are in terms of quality, though results don't back that.  We turned our season around when Gordon got fit and also when McCart came in and we played 5-3-2.  If we started this season playing that way...

I think our squad last season was stronger than last season, and I don't see the current squad, as whole, being stronger than anyones outside the likes of Hamilton, County and probably Kilmarnock. Give me a choice of Jason Holt and Drey Wright, or Craig Bryson and Craig Conway, and despite Wrights flaws, I know I'm wanting the first two. Matt Butcher is one I'm still disappointed we couldn't get permanently tbh.

Biggest question around CD will be whether it was the right idea to try and implement such a change in tactic so early, and I guess we might only get an answer to that in the future. Don't disagree we'd have picked up more points if we'd followed on from last season, but I'm not totally unconvinced having a wee shake up tactically was a bad thing, and its probably something every manager has to go through to "find themselves".

[nelsjfc]

I think our squad last season was stronger than last season, and I don't see the current squad, as whole, being stronger than anyones outside the likes of Hamilton, County and probably Kilmarnock. Give me a choice of Jason Holt and Drey Wright, or Craig Bryson and Craig Conway, and despite Wrights flaws, I know I'm wanting the first two. Matt Butcher is one I'm still disappointed we couldn't get permanently tbh.
Biggest question around CD will be whether it was the right idea to try and implement such a change in tactic so early, and I guess we might only get an answer to that in the future. Don't disagree we'd have picked up more points if we'd followed on from last season, but I'm not totally unconvinced having a wee shake up tactically was a bad thing, and its probably something every manager has to go through to "find themselves".

I'd imagine Drey Wright wages would dwarf the others on the list there and he was scouted for years before signing. Davidson has come in at a really difficult time. He certainly hasn't been given free reign to build his own side yet.

The only really way I'd imagine Davidson would be under pressure is if he'd lost control of the dressing room and it certainly doesn't look likes that's the case. He was such an obvious choice at the time - a bright guy who absolutely everyone who has worked with seems to really rate and has links to the club. Shouldn't just give up on that 6 months in.

[RandomGuy.]

5 minutes ago, nelsjfc said:

I'd imagine Drey Wright wages would dwarf the others on the list there and he was scouted for years before signing. Davidson has come in at a really difficult time. He certainly hasn't been given free reign to build his own side yet.

Aye, this Summer was a complete disaster, and I'm don't think you can blame Davidson much for that at all.

See what January brings.

[PauloPerth]

52 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

I think our squad last season was stronger than last season, and I don't see the current squad, as whole, being stronger than anyones outside the likes of Hamilton, County and probably Kilmarnock. Give me a choice of Jason Holt and Drey Wright, or Craig Bryson and Craig Conway, and despite Wrights flaws, I know I'm wanting the first two. Matt Butcher is one I'm still disappointed we couldn't get permanently tbh.

Biggest question around CD will be whether it was the right idea to try and implement such a change in tactic so early, and I guess we might only get an answer to that in the future. Don't disagree we'd have picked up more points if we'd followed on from last season, but I'm not totally unconvinced having a wee shake up tactically was a bad thing, and its probably something every manager has to go through to "find themselves".

I agree last season's was stronger, but I'm saying he still inherited a good squad that was in the ascendency. Weren't we second or third in the form table from winter upto the season ending?

Same goalkeeper, defence the same other than Danny for Drey, midfield missing Butcher/ Holt looks weaker so far with Conway and Bryson, but you've got Wotherspoon who's been arguably our most creative player in there with McCann and one of Davidson/Craig/ Bryson.  Strikers the same.

The big difference has been players underperforming and the system employed. Down to Callum to play the squad to its strengths and get the most out of the players.

We haven't suddenly got a squad of bad players. You could argue in the second half of last season we maybe slightly overachieved in getting sixth, but no way do we have a bottom three squad.  

Even if there's no scope for significant changes in January, this squad should still easily be good enough to avoid the relegation places.  

[RandomGuy.]

11 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

I agree last season's was stronger, but I'm saying he still inherited a good squad that was in the ascendency. Weren't we second or third in the form table from winter upto the season ending?

I will forever maintain Hendrys form was unsustainable, and was winning us points we didn't necessarily "deserve".

I've not worded that right but don't know how else to say it. We were pretty poor last season IMO.

We've got a smaller, weaker, squad, and a weaker manager. That's not me saying CD is shit, just that he's not near TW yet as a manager. Last season we were a bottom half team, despite the "final" position, so realistically everything getting poorer pushes us down the league.

[The Saintee]

I'd not be expecting much in January.

What will have changed for Brown to shift in his attitude?

Edited December 26, 2020 by The Saintee

[RandomGuy.]

2 minutes ago, The Saintee said:

I'd not be expecting much in January.

What will have changed for Brown to shift in his attitude?

Rangers are top of the league...

In all seriousness, and I might be wrong, I felt like we cut the budget a lot this Summer. The Government funding doesn't need taken up, but would allow us to have a "normal" budget again if its needed, rather than 0% chance of it. Last season we paid a fee for McCart despite still being in relegation bother (only because Kennedy was sold maybe?).

Theres an argument, if possible, we should look to sell an asset (out of Kerr and McCann, Kerr is the one we'd miss least IMO) for a seven figure fee, and allow a mini-rebuild. Thats a bit of an "out there" thought though, and would depend entirely on a club wanting to buy Kerr for that amount.

Edited December 26, 2020 by RandomGuy.

[Hendo]

53 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Rangers are top of the league...

In all seriousness, and I might be wrong, I felt like we cut the budget a lot this Summer. The Government funding doesn't need taken up, but would allow us to have a "normal" budget again if its needed, rather than 0% chance of it. Last season we paid a fee for McCart despite still being in relegation bother (only because Kennedy was sold maybe?).

Theres an argument, if possible, we should look to sell an asset (out of Kerr and McCann, Kerr is the one we'd miss least IMO) for a seven figure fee, and allow a mini-rebuild. Thats a bit of an "out there" thought though, and would depend entirely on a club wanting to buy Kerr for that amount.

That made me laugh. Seven figure fee for Jason Kerr?

On the plus side for you guys, you are an infinitely better side than either Accies or County. You'll be fine this season.

[RandomGuy.]

19 minutes ago, Hendo said:

That made me laugh. Seven figure fee for Jason Kerr?

On the plus side for you guys, you are an infinitely better side than either Accies or County. You'll be fine this season.

I'd be disappointed if we sold him for under £1m tbh, but I doubt we'll get near the £1.75m we got for Davidson.

McCann is obviously our big hope for a fee. Hopefully can keep impressing for NI.

[Munoz]

3 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

I'd be disappointed if we sold him for under £1m tbh, but I doubt we'll get near the £1.75m we got for Davidson.

McCann is obviously our big hope for a fee. Hopefully can keep impressing for NI.

Delusional. 

[PauloPerth]

1 hour ago, RandomGuy. said:

I will forever maintain Hendrys form was unsustainable, and was winning us points we didn't necessarily "deserve".

I've not worded that right but don't know how else to say it. We were pretty poor last season IMO.

We've got a smaller, weaker, squad, and a weaker manager. That's not me saying CD is shit, just that he's not near TW yet as a manager. Last season we were a bottom half team, despite the "final" position, so realistically everything getting poorer pushes us down the league.

From that turning point back to being solid game at Rugby Park at the start of December, over 15 matches until the season ended, our record was 

W 6     D 7    L 2    Goals:    +15  -13.      7 clean sheets.  

 

Yes Hendry was in good form, but you go on about him during that period as if he was on some Ronaldo-like scoring run.  His goals per minute rate was excellent, but you makeout he was the sole reason we climbed the table.  Hendry scored 5 goals over those 15 matches.  For context, during the same period Ali McCann and Stevie May scored 4 goals each.  

As a team, we scored 15 in 15. This season we are on 18 in 20, so not that far off it.  We conceded 13 in 15 whereas this season it's 30 in 20. A much bigger jump.

Practically the same defence as we have now produced 7 clean sheets over those 15 matches.  3 clean sheets in 20 this season.

 

 

[RandomGuy.]

18 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

From that turning point back to being solid game at Rugby Park at the start of December, over 15 matches until the season ended, our record was 

W 6     D 7    L 2    Goals:    +15  -13.      7 clean sheets.  

Yes Hendry was in good form, but you go on about him during that period as if he was on some Ronaldo-like scoring run.  His goals per minute rate was excellent, but you makeout he was the sole reason we climbed the table.  Hendry scored 5 goals over those 15 matches.  For context, during the same period Ali McCann and Stevie May scored 4 goals each.  

As a team, we scored 15 in 15. This season we are on 18 in 20, so not that far off it.  We conceded 13 in 15 whereas this season it's 30 in 20. A much bigger jump.

Practically the same defence as we have now produced 7 clean sheets over those 15 matches.  3 clean sheets in 20 this season.

Zero question, to me, that the 5-2-3 set up has caused us to concede more, but Clark is also having one of the worst seasons I've seen a keeper have. He had one or two "episodes" last season, but this season seems unable to save anything.

I just think last season Hendry was plopping in goals he shouldn't be scoring, and this season he isn't scoring those goals, and that makes a difference. Hes had chances in tight games that hes fluffed, whereas last season he scores to give us lead etc., and mentally having that striker to rely on is a massive thing for a team as you're not terrified of falling behind.

As always, more than a chance I'm wrong.

[Kyle]

Hendrys goals weren’t all rakers from miles out or anything. Hearts and county games he scored front post headers from a cross/corner from the left, Livingston a volley from about 8 yards, rangers a decent finish from the angle about 6 yards out. The one against Motherwell was a good instinctive finish that I maybe wouldn’t expect him to score, but I would expect a striker of any repute to put the other chances away. 
 

As Paulo has said , most of last year’s strongest 11 are still at the club and I’d argue McNamara is an upgrade on Ralston at wing back. The difference is we can’t hold onto leads when we get ahead and we give away far too many chances which result in goals through a mix of lapses by defenders and shite goalkeeping. 

[PauloPerth]

Looking back at the stats, one thing that stands out is the number of late goals we grabbed over those matches in tight games.  The point was made last week about how many crucial late goals we've conceded this season.

Again, looking at that 15 match upturn in form, goals for us in the last 15 minutes;

Hendry at Tynecastle (1-0)

McCann at Accies (1-0)

Hendry home v County (1-1)

Wothersonn home v Killie (2-1)

Kane home v Motherwell (2-1)

May home v Rangers (2-2)

Hendry home v Livingston (1-0)

For balance, we lost points through late goals at home v Hearts (3-3) and away at County (1-1).

 

It shows the importance of being solid and staying in games, as well as having a strong mentality.  We don't need to be expansive and try to impress against Accies and County in the upcoming matches, we just need to be hard to break down and not give anything away cheaply and we'll get chances.

 

 

 

[RandomGuy.]

2 minutes ago, Kyle said:

Hendrys goals weren’t all rakers from miles out or anything. Hearts and county games he scored front post headers from a cross/corner from the left, Livingston a volley from about 8 yards, rangers a decent finish from the angle about 6 yards out. The one against Motherwell was a good instinctive finish that I maybe wouldn’t expect him to score, but I would expect a striker of any repute to put the other chances away. 

I know folk dont like xG, but I've got the xG figures, and relative goal figures, for 173 strikers in the top flight from 2015/16-2020/21. If you calculate how strikers compare to their xG in terms of goals, you find that the average is 95.55%, or a -4.45% underperformance.

Griffiths the most consistent striker over that period. His best was a 45.76% overperformance, averages a 11.64% over performance.

Last season Hendry had a 76% overperformance.

I know folk don't like this stuff, and will say its a lot of shite because of what their eyes told them, but the xG model used is 95.55% accurate over the past 5 years in predicting the average strikers goal return. That high of an overperformance by Hendry was not sustainable, he was scoring 1 in 8 chances every week. Take away his 3 biggest overperformance goals (winner v Hamilton, equaliser v County, goal v Rangers), and we're 4pts down, but also have the morale sapping draw late on v Hamilton and a shitty 1-0 loss at home to County to deal with. 

Football is full of fine margins. Hendry overperforming when TW needed him to, and then missing every chance that comes his way for CD early this season, is a tiny thing that can have massive effect. Last seasons Hendry scores the opening goal at Ibrox, scores in both games v Livi, and probably gets a goal away v Killie too. We'll never know, but if Hendry is bagging those chances then you've got two strikers who are scoring, and CD doesn't really have a choice but to play both, and we probably end up playing 3-5-2 more often which brings more results. 

Again, I expect pretty much everyone will say this is a lot of shite, but its just my thoughts and why I'm thinking what I am.