Why no polls?

[Colkitto]

The independence vote is creeping up which is good to see, but until article 50 is invoked then we don't know what leaving the EU means.

Wouldn't say polls just now are pointless but to a certain extent we need to see the deal the UK gets from the EU before you can put a proper independence case to the people of Scotland 

[Gordon EF]

A cold snap this winter could push us up to 48%.

[Loondave1]

A cold snap this winter could push us up to 48%.

Does this mean the SNP could lobby Westminster to remove the heating allowance for the final push...[emoji6]

[Gordon EF]

26 minutes ago, Loondave1 said:

Does this mean the SNP could lobby Westminster to remove the heating allowance for the final push...

Good idea. Will upload this to the collective tonight.

[ScotSquid]

The latest polls just reinforce why there won't be an indyRef2 any time soon. 

[renton]

9 minutes ago, ScotSquid said:

The latest polls just reinforce why there won't be an indyRef2 any time soon. 

Even if the polls were the other way around there still wouldn't be an Indyref "any time soon". Expectations for a 2nd indyref are entirely dependent on the shape of Brexit.

The polls immediately after the vote showed a sharp increase in the yes vote, the probability is that surge has now subsided as panic over brexit has subsided. It's a phoney war, however. I don't think enough Scots are wedded to the concept of the EU to mourn our passing from it, but a hard Brexit, or non access to the Free market? I think that would move people's passions well enough. I don't think the UK government will get that, so once article 50 is invoked (assuming it is) I still think we'll see another Indy ref within that two year time frame.

 

[Alan Stubbs]

The polls still seem pretty tempermental around Brexit. There were the ridiculous outliers straight after, which were obviously an overly emotional reaction. Then we had really poor numbers during a period of radio silence with nobdoy having a clue when, or even if, Brexit would happen. After the camera's being in for May's cabinet meeting and some (vague and unconvincing) talk about timeframes and plans, the polls have crept back up slightly.

I still think Brexit and the economy are by a distance the two biggest deciding factors here. Those issues are strengthening and hampering the case for Independence respecively. There are no shortage of votes to be won as Brexit progresses but whilst Scotland's economy is seen to lag behind the UK's, there's the potential for the opportunity to be missed. We have a few years to get our finger our and get the house in order.

[Antlion]

1 hour ago, Alan Stubbs said:

The polls still seem pretty tempermental around Brexit. There were the ridiculous outliers straight after, which were obviously an overly emotional reaction. Then we had really poor numbers during a period of radio silence with nobdoy having a clue when, or even if, Brexit would happen. After the camera's being in for May's cabinet meeting and some (vague and unconvincing) talk about timeframes and plans, the polls have crept back up slightly.

I still think Brexit and the economy are by a distance the two biggest deciding factors here. Those issues are strengthening and hampering the case for Independence respecively. There are no shortage of votes to be won as Brexit progresses but whilst Scotland's economy is seen to lag behind the UK's, there's the potential for the opportunity to be missed. We have a few years to get our finger our and get the house in order.

And of course when and if Scotland's economy boomed, it would cited as a reason to remain - and all thanks to the strength of the British state. It's a difficult one - if the economy does well, it will be claimed by regionalists as a reason not to rock the boat by regaining statehood; if the economy does badly, it will be claimed as a reason why we must suckle on the UK's teat even just to manage that.

The flaw in regionalist thinking is that, by their argument, if Scotland does badly economically then they should be demanding more reliance on Westminster - in effect, "more union" and a reversal of devolution - but they won't go that far. It's strange - if Indy supporters say "we're strong and could be stronger by being a nation state", then surely regionalists should be saying "the UK is what's keeping us safe and could keep us safer by having more control".

[Alan Stubbs]

29 minutes ago, Antlion said:

And of course when and if Scotland's economy boomed, it would cited as a reason to remain - and all thanks to the strength of the British state. It's a difficult one - if the economy does well, it will be claimed by regionalists as a reason not to rock the boat by regaining statehood; if the economy does badly, it will be claimed as a reason why we must suckle on the UK's teat even just to manage that.

The flaw in regionalist thinking is that, by their argument, if Scotland does badly economically then they should be demanding more reliance on Westminster - in effect, "more union" and a reversal of devolution - but they won't go that far. It's strange - if Indy supporters say "we're strong and could be stronger by being a nation state", then surely regionalists should be saying "the UK is what's keeping us safe and could keep us safer by having more control".

I disagree, there's a reason the last Referendum basically became a debate around whether Independence was viable or not. There were tiny smatterings of British pariotism allowed but Unionists knew themselves that this is a minority viewpoint in Scotland and that telling people that it can't happen is their best bet. The question isn't whether Scotland is booming but it's economic strength relative to the UK. All things being economically equal, a post-Brexit Union is in big trouble.

There is something to be said for your second paragraph re the direction of travel when it comes to powes for Scotland. The process of Unionists arguing against devolution that they evetually claim as a success can be traced from 1979 to Smith. The idea that maybe Scotland making its own decisions is a good thing doesn't seem to be something that can be reigned in.

[ScotSquid]

6 hours ago, renton said:

Even if the polls were the other way around there still wouldn't be an Indyref "any time soon". Expectations for a 2nd indyref are entirely dependent on the shape of Brexit.

The polls immediately after the vote showed a sharp increase in the yes vote, the probability is that surge has now subsided as panic over brexit has subsided. It's a phoney war, however. I don't think enough Scots are wedded to the concept of the EU to mourn our passing from it, but a hard Brexit, or non access to the Free market? I think that would move people's passions well enough. I don't think the UK government will get that, so once article 50 is invoked (assuming it is) I still think we'll see another Indy ref within that two year time frame.

 

I don't think your first paragraph is true. The second indyref is only 'dependent on the shape of Brexit' precisely because the polls aren't favourable at the moment. 

If polling showed 60% Yes currently and consistently the rowing back from an actual referendum being held would not be happening in my view.

'Lets see what happens' is just a convenient excuse not to have to actually go ahead with it. That is allied of course to the terrible GERS figures . 

So the problem the SNP currently have is that polling is bad, the GERS figures were awful and people are noticing that a iScot in the EU when the UK isn't is potentially in a very dangerous trading position given the preponderance of our intra UK trade . The harder it is for the UK to trade with Europe, the worse things get for Scotland. Then you have the shambles of the oil price and the open goal of the White Papers laughable predictions there which looked ridiculous at the time and become more risible by the day.

It's a really dreadful scenario currently for an indyref. There's no way there's going to be one this Parliament no matter what Brexit looks like. Post 2020? Who knows. Will there be a majority SNP or SNP plus Green administration? Maybe. Maybe not.

Sturgeon is tiptoeing along a precipice just now. She has to keep putting off an indyref and she needs to keep finding excuses to do so. This 'lets see about Brexit' is a pretty good one and should run for another year or so. After that there will be the delay whilst British withdrawal is finalised. That will take her too close to the next elections to run it then, which leaves it til the next Parliament . She can easily spin this out til 2022 or later. But in doing so she has to keep onside the idiot cannon fodder who want one now and every 6 months until they win.

 

[ScotSquid]

4 hours ago, Alan Stubbs said:

I disagree, there's a reason the last Referendum basically became a debate around whether Independence was viable or not. There were tiny smatterings of British pariotism allowed but Unionists knew themselves that this is a minority viewpoint in Scotland and that telling people that it can't happen is their best bet. The question isn't whether Scotland is booming but it's economic strength relative to the UK. All things being economically equal, a post-Brexit Union is in big trouble.

There is something to be said for your second paragraph re the direction of travel when it comes to powes for Scotland. The process of Unionists arguing against devolution that they evetually claim as a success can be traced from 1979 to Smith. The idea that maybe Scotland making its own decisions is a good thing doesn't seem to be something that can be reigned in.

I'd say it was more about the level of public spending . Not the strength of the economy although I know the two are obviously linked.

It's not that Scotland is doing badly as such, it's that our spending commitments make it look that way.

Rightly or wrongly long term and from a structural point of view, we can have a higher level of public spending now than if we were Indy. Short term. 

So an indyScot govt faces huge problems (and opportunities!) Post Indy.

For those absolutely wedded to the idea of Indy, they have to look at the climate and think are people going to vote for a more sober and realistic vision. Maybe yes , maybe no.

But there's a reason the White Paper cherry picked data when it did. It can't do so again . Also sharing the pound on a currency union is completely out the window if the view is iScot will be in the EU and the UK not.

So you have to think any economic debate will not be won by the SNP. Meaning you are reliant far more on people looking far down the line for longer term gain. Something that isn't I think plausible. 

I think the right time for another referendum is between 2022 and 2025. At the earliest.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Even if the polls were the other way around there still wouldn't be an Indyref "any time soon". Expectations for a 2nd indyref are entirely dependent on the shape of Brexit.

The polls immediately after the vote showed a sharp increase in the yes vote, the probability is that surge has now subsided as panic over brexit has subsided. It's a phoney war, however. I don't think enough Scots are wedded to the concept of the EU to mourn our passing from it, but a hard Brexit, or non access to the Free market? I think that would move people's passions well enough. I don't think the UK government will get that, so once article 50 is invoked (assuming it is) I still think we'll see another Indy ref within that two year time frame.

 

Have to agree with this.

If the deal on Brexit is not a good one there will be an increase in the Yes vote.

[Colkitto]

9 hours ago, renton said:

Even if the polls were the other way around there still wouldn't be an Indyref "any time soon". Expectations for a 2nd indyref are entirely dependent on the shape of Brexit.

The polls immediately after the vote showed a sharp increase in the yes vote, the probability is that surge has now subsided as panic over brexit has subsided. It's a phoney war, however. I don't think enough Scots are wedded to the concept of the EU to mourn our passing from it, but a hard Brexit, or non access to the Free market? I think that would move people's passions well enough. I don't think the UK government will get that, so once article 50 is invoked (assuming it is) I still think we'll see another Indy ref within that two year time frame.

 

Agree with all of that

[bob the tank]

The old adage " paper takes on anything" has never been truer than now where polls are concerned

[Thistle_do_nicely]

I still have a strange gut feeling that it's more likely than not that the UK is going to stay in the EU, even if on some sort of "substance rather than form" basis ie EU in all but name. Maybe a restructured EU?

It's hard to reconcile that with there not being a massive surge in UKIP across England (in all likelihood snatching more seats from disaffected Labour voters than even the Tories but hammering both at the polling booth), so how the Tories can find a fudge that doesn't still result in a surge in a UKIP who remain heavily anti-immigration and EU is beyond me - beyond my pay grade too though tbh so perhaps there is a way somehow. If the UK does genuinely leave the EU then I could see UKIP becoming the "let's hammer Jockistan" party since, once the boogeyman of the EU fades away as Article 50 is triggered, it seems likely that the best way to target the thick English "sausage beans n' mash" demographic they aim to confirm the biases of is to start making noises about us pesky subsidy junkies, especially if we're making noises about another referendum...

[Colkitto]

New Ipsos poll for STV 

Yes 48% No 52% 

Oh, and Ruth Davidson is now more popular than Nicola Sturgeon 

 

[capybara]

6 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

New Ipsos poll for STV 

Yes 48% No 52% 

Oh, and Ruth Davidson is now more popular than Nicola Sturgeon 

 

Of course all reports you read claim the polling for Indie is static. But it is narrowing point by point.

 

As for Ruth it will not last. A Tory does not change its spots  but she is a media darling eh....

[doulikefish]

18 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

New Ipsos poll for STV 

Yes 48% No 52% 

Oh, and Ruth Davidson is now more popular than Nicola Sturgeon 

 

Are 16-18 year olds and european nationals included ??

[Colkitto]

18 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Are 16-18 year olds and european nationals included ??

Aye.

[Colkitto]

Bizarrely, the Ipsos poll find PM May more popular than Sturgeon