Ross. Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 11 hours ago, Baxter Parp said: UK banking system 'resilient' to no-deal Brexit, says Bank of England The scenario, which goes beyond what most analysts would expect even from a worst-case Brexit, involves a UK recession with GDP falling by 4.7%, with interest rates rising to 4% and the unemployment rate going up to 9.2% and is the toughest "war game" test yet thrown at the UK banks. https://news.sky.com/story/bank-of-england-uk-banking-system-prepared-for-any-no-deal-brexit-11888391 We're fucked but the banks will be fine. Retail banking will suffer, investment banking will do well, especially those who have already shifted operations teams and departments to Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 26 minutes ago, Ross. said: Retail banking will suffer, investment banking will do well, especially those who have already shifted operations teams and departments to Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt. The City of London has used trusts set up in non-EU tax havens within what's left of the Empire like Jersey and the Cayman Islands to attract vast amounts of money from all kinds of shady characters and maintain London's role as the dominant financial services centre globally. If anything, Brexit probably makes that easier to do. It's more manufacturing and agriculture that potentially have major problems ahead. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pet Jeden Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 26 minutes ago, MixuFixit said: The EU. I said what. Not who. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Seems less of a negotiating tactic and more of Boris trying to re-affirm his 'Get Brexit Done' mantra post election. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 40 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: The City of London has used trusts set up in non-EU tax havens within what's left of the Empire like Jersey and the Cayman Islands to attract vast amounts of money from all kinds of shady characters and maintain London's role as the dominant financial services centre globally. If anything, Brexit probably makes that easier to do. It's more manufacturing and agriculture that potentially have major problems ahead. The City of London is largely investment banking, which, as I said, will do ok. Retail banks may be headquartered there but any significant rise in interest rates will hammer their bottom line and profits. I have no idea what a typical rate is on a personal loan or a mortgage at the moment, but I do know that if banks were to try and pass on a 3.5-4% rise in rates directly to customers, they would have a lot less people borrowing. Instead, they will have to absorb a large part of the rise themselves. A loan with a rate of 6.9% at the moment gives a good 6% to the bank. If the base rate goes up 4%, the banks will most likely initially bump their rates up by a couple of % max. 8.9% loans would only leave a 4% margin. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 I was expanding on what you were saying more than arguing with it. A thought that crossed my mind when writing that post was what happens on banking if NI is permanently inside the EU customs union but still in the UK due to the backstop and whether that provides a useful loophole for the financial services industry? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 36 minutes ago, Ross. said: The City of London is largely investment banking, which, as I said, will do ok. Retail banks may be headquartered there but any significant rise in interest rates will hammer their bottom line and profits. I have no idea what a typical rate is on a personal loan or a mortgage at the moment, but I do know that if banks were to try and pass on a 3.5-4% rise in rates directly to customers, they would have a lot less people borrowing. Instead, they will have to absorb a large part of the rise themselves. A loan with a rate of 6.9% at the moment gives a good 6% to the bank. If the base rate goes up 4%, the banks will most likely initially bump their rates up by a couple of % max. 8.9% loans would only leave a 4% margin. If the base rate went up 4% the UK economy would crash. Banks are lending and people are taking out mortgages on the assumption rates will be staying low for the long term. There is no reason to put them up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 13 hours ago, Baxter Parp said: UK banking system 'resilient' to no-deal Brexit, says Bank of England The scenario, which goes beyond what most analysts would expect even from a worst-case Brexit, involves a UK recession with GDP falling by 4.7%, with interest rates rising to 4% and the unemployment rate going up to 9.2% and is the toughest "war game" test yet thrown at the UK banks. https://news.sky.com/story/bank-of-england-uk-banking-system-prepared-for-any-no-deal-brexit-11888391 We're fucked but the banks will be fine. 4 minutes ago, Detournement said: If the base rate went up 4% the UK economy would crash. Banks are lending and people are taking out mortgages on the assumption rates will be staying low for the long term. There is no reason to put them up. It was based on the above post and link. I'm not saying it would or it should happen, just adding comment to another effect if it did happen. 16 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: I was expanding on what you were saying more than arguing with it. A thought that crossed my mind when writing that post was what happens on banking if NI is permanently inside the EU customs union but still in the UK due to the backstop and whether that provides a useful loophole for the financial services industry? Not sure many would bother with NI. Dublin has been a popular choice for anyone moving bodies from London though. Common language, "All the way" in the EU as it is so more stable than NI politically in that respect, and already has a fairly solid and well established financial services industry. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 WTO again. Same story but from a Canadian perspective. Quote At the heart of Trump’s ire is the WTO’s existing trade-dispute arrangements — or the so-called seven-member Appellate Body of adjudicators. By constantly blocking any new appointments to the court, he has made it clear that he will cripple the body by not allowing it to maintain its minimum number of three trade judges (there is now only one judge remaining). In effect, Trump has single-handedly shut down the WTO’s only mechanism for resolving trade disputes between countries. For some reason, Trump is of the belief that the U.S. does not get a fair shake within the WTO. What he really means is that Washington doesn’t win all of its trade disputes with other countries because of what he sees as a decidedly anti-American bias in WTO trade rulings. He is particularly exercised about the way that trade decisions have favoured China — one of Trump’s incessant targets of his ill-tempered tweets and tariffs. He is upset that the WTO, at least according to The Donald, looks the other way when it comes to China’s penchant for unfair subsidies and the dumping of cheapgoods. Quote According to Joao Aguiar Machado, the European Union’s WTO ambassador, “we will (now) have an unprecedented situation in the World Trade Organization, which will no longer be able to deliver binding resolution of trade disputes and will no longer guarantee the right to appeal review.” He goes on to say pointedly: “The actions of one member will deprive other members of their right to a binding and two-step dispute settlement system, even though this right is specifically envisaged in the WTO contract.” As a major trading nation, this is obviously very bad news for Canada. Starkly put, trade comprises over 60 per cent of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). And as a country that depends heavily on a rules-based global system, Trump’s insouciance leaves us tremendously exposed economically. Because Canada is a small to middling power in the world, it doesn’t have the influence to bend other countries to its will. It thus has to rely on multilateral institutions like the WTO to protect and advance its commercial interests. Trump, the trade disrupter-in-chief, poses a serious threat to those interests. https://www.theguardian.pe.ca/opinion/local-perspectives/peter-mckenna-trumps-attempt-to-neutralize-wto-leaves-canada-vulnerable-388837/ Canada has already been forced to swallow a rewritten NAFTA. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 9 hours ago, Ross. said: I have no idea what a typical rate is on a personal loan or a mortgage at the moment, but I do know that if banks were to try and pass on a 3.5-4% rise in rates directly to customers, they would have a lot less people borrowing. Instead, they will have to absorb a large part of the rise themselves. A loan with a rate of 6.9% at the moment gives a good 6% to the bank. If the base rate goes up 4%, the banks will most likely initially bump their rates up by a couple of % max. 8.9% loans would only leave a 4% margin. I renewed my mortgage this month so happen to have the rate at hand. Checks notes... Drum roll... 1.74%. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 9 hours ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said: I renewed my mortgage this month so happen to have the rate at hand. Checks notes... Drum roll... 1.74%. In my defence, my figures were based on an unsecured personal loan rather than secured. The same logic applies, albeit with smaller margins in terms of %. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyderspaceman Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 The instant rise in the value of Pound v Euro was a small silver lining for me in the black cloud of Tory victory, but now the fat fucker has even fucked that up. c**t. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 These people are Mark Corrigan when he tries to get his mugged belongings back. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 3 hours ago, cyderspaceman said: The instant rise in the value of Pound v Euro was a small silver lining for me in the black cloud of Tory victory, but now the fat fucker has even fucked that up. c**t. Dropping quite nicely again before I head home tomorrow night for a few days. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 I renewed my mortgage this month so happen to have the rate at hand. Checks notes... Drum roll... 1.74%. That's an excellent deal.Have 2 years left on my fixed interest deal - by that point will only have 3 years left of my mortgage - thankfully!! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 The new brexit bill is introduced and chapter 34 is missing.......workers rights 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, doulikefish said: The new brexit bill is introduced and chapter 34 is missing.......workers rights And the minimum wage rise will only happen "provided economic conditions allow", and over 5 years. But there will be bridge to Northern Ireland, so that's ok. (will there f**k, like his garden bridge in London and an airport on the Thames estuary) Edited December 19, 2019 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zidane's child Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 4 hours ago, doulikefish said: The new brexit bill is introduced and chapter 34 is missing.......workers rights F**k it into them for voting Tory. What else did they expect? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GNU_Linux Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-withdrawal-bill-brexit-child-refugees-dubs-amendment-a9253841.html?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=FeedThem bloody immigrants comin 'ere to be reunited with their families 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 17 hours ago, doulikefish said: The new brexit bill is introduced and chapter 34 is missing.......workers rights And will sail through today and not a thing anyone can do about it. No Deal will now be firmly back on the table. Come on Scotland - we don't have to be part of this fucking mess. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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