Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

26 minutes ago, virginton said:

Disappointed that the thread is focused on the jakey tramp when there are so many fishermen to point and laugh at. Shafted by their gammon fellow travellers at the very end: you hate to see it happen.

Most groups would have seen that coming a mile off but as their rampant overfishing demonstrates, fishermen aren't very good when it comes to reasoned foresight.

Their ceaseless rage at all things independence really is fabulous. I imagine their next move will be to go cap in hand to the SG for a few handouts. I sincerely hope they are squarely told to f**k right off. Let us not forgot a considerable number of Tory farmers have been hilariously thrown under the bus as well. 

[vikingTON]

The farmers' fate was sealed a long time ago, but the fact that Johnson and co. engaged in ridiculous grandstanding over their beloved fishermen beyond multiple deadlines, only to then fold and chuck them overboard anyway is absolutely delicious.

[sophia]

11 minutes ago, virginton said:

The farmers' fate was sealed a long time ago, but the fact that Johnson and co. engaged in ridiculous grandstanding over their beloved fishermen beyond multiple deadlines, only to then fold and chuck them overboard anyway is absolutely delicious.

and if you will forgive the torture, it shoots another tory fox that there is a return to the glory days of black fish landings should we be free of the pesky shared scientific imperatives.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

RoI trying to fire into NI.

[Guest Jedi]

The FT kens...

Research from 2016 by the consultants Oliver Wyman shows why the prospect of Brexit worries London financial bosses. Only half the City’s wholesale business came from UK customers. Of the remainder, roughly half came from the EU. The rest emanated in the wider financial world, from the US to the Middle East and Asia. “It is hard to read Brexit as a positive for the City of London if you peer forward 20 years into the future,” says Philip Augar, the former banker turned author. “It may not be a catastrophe, but it will place restrictions and frictions where there were none before.” For the first time since the 1960s, the City’s reach will shrink

https://www.ft.com/content/b609553d-ec54-4765-a46e-016707537aaf

As does the Economist....

Thousands of jobs and well over £1trn ($1.3trn) of assets have already been shifted to continental Europe as City firms confront this new friction (of Brexit)

https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/10/24/what-brexit-will-do-to-the-city-of-london

 

[Baxter Parp]

7 hours ago, strichener said:

CGT is what you specifically stated, still awaiting evidence that this will be lost. 

Corporation Tax is what I specifically stated, CGT was a peripheral loss.

[Baxter Parp]

2 hours ago, The_Kincardine said:

As I said in reply:

It's fine to get 'shit' wrong as long as you acknowledge it.  I am one of the rare posters who does.

 

This from the arsehole that claims joining the EU is a fifteen year process.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

Farage, Boris, the right wing media, absolutely everyone who made Brexit about fish has thrown the actual fishermen into the gutter.

Outstanding. 

[Baxter Parp]

[Jacksgranda]

6 hours ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

RoI trying to fire into NI.

I've already posted that. And I think it's more about fostering the Belfast Agreement rather than "firing into NI".

[Bairnardo]

Imagine welching on a bet ffs.

What an absolute shitebag

[LongTimeLurker]

7 hours ago, Jedi said:

...” For the first time since the 1960s, the City’s reach will shrink

https://www.ft.com/content/b609553d-ec54-4765-a46e-016707537aaf

...

The EEC/EU was needed to replace the Empire as the internal market to support the City of London as a global player because the Commonwealth wasn't holding together as a coherent economic unit post-Empire and the UK is too small on its own.

2 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

Pro-Brexit Tories simply don't seem to be able to grasp emotionally that they are now the smaller party when they are neogotiating issues like fishing and the RoI:NI border.

London's ongoing global role to rival New York over the 45 years or so came through being the gateway to an EEC/EU market comparable in size to the American one. You need to have lots of legitimate business opportunities available to launder all that capital of dubious origin that the City could attract through places like the Cayman Islands and Jersey that stayed outside the EU (e.g. revenue from Colombia's main export and kleptocratic third world and post-Soviet elites hiding their stolen loot offshore) and Brexit makes that harder as the EU gets to unilaterally set the terms on access to EU assets now with no UK veto over future EU legislation and treaties.

The City of London isn't going to suddenly just collapse and shrivel up and die because that isn't in the EU's short to medium term interest but a long steady decline is likely now relative to New York and markets in the Far East as well as the business that will be lost to other European centres. Being in the EU was the key to a lot of its post-imperial vitality, but deluded Brexiteers thought Britannia still ruled the waves on financial services and the UK was the larger party in global terms as a standalone entity rather than by virtue of being an EU member.

Edited December 27, 2020 by LongTimeLurker

[LongTimeLurker]

29 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

I've already posted that. And I think it's more about fostering the Belfast Agreement rather than "firing into NI".

A lot of Irish passport holders involved in an NI context so nothing hugely new on that. SF will have to eclipse FF and FG's combined numbers electorally before rapid rather than eventual UI is on the RoI's agenda.

The deal is symbolically hard but in practice likely to be soft due to the level playing field concept so the rationale for a Border Poll to undo or alleviate some of the damage isn't going to be there to the extent it would be under No Deal. There is also less danger of SF taking power in Dublin in the short to medium term.

That probably puts the timeline on UI back to 20 years in most people's minds again as it has been for several decades giving Unionism some breathing space to hope the Little Englander nationalism at Westminster that was willing to jettison Ulster to get what it wants on Europe recedes.

Edited December 27, 2020 by LongTimeLurker

[bendan]

11 hours ago, The_Kincardine said:

 

This means no free movement of labour, capital or services within GB.

 

I agree that Scotland can't assume there would be free movement of labour and services within GB, but given the precedent of the situation with RoI and UK still having reciprocal rights it's reasonable to think the same situation would exist with Scotland. Pretty much all of us would have UK passports, too, so bit tricky to stop.

I'm more curious about your assertion that the free movement of capital would stop. What capital controls are going to exist between the EU and UK? 

[bendan]

2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

 

The City of London isn't going to suddenly just collapse and shrivel up and die because that isn't in the EU's short to medium term interest but a long steady decline is likely now relative to New York and markets in the Far East as well as the business that will be lost to other European centres. Being in the EU was the key to a lot of its post-imperial vitality, but deluded Brexiteers thought Britannia still ruled the waves on financial services and the UK was the larger party in global terms as a standalone entity rather than by virtue of being an EU member.

I'm not that convinced that London's rise has been largely because it was in the EU. A combination of deregulation under Thatcher and a location, language, legal system, history and timezone that suit a role as a global crossroads have created a period when it's been very successful. All things go in cycles, and Europe (inc the UK) is going to diminish in global importance over the next few decades, but it's hard to see a world where the only truly global financial centres are in New York and Asia.

[John Lambies Doos]

I've already posted that. And I think it's more about fostering the Belfast Agreement rather than "firing into NI".

Nope, small step closer to an United Ireland

Glorious

[Jacksgranda]

11 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Nope, small step closer to an United Ireland

Glorious

You'll be saying that to your grandchildren in 30 years time.

[LongTimeLurker]

22 minutes ago, bendan said:

..., but it's hard to see a world where the only truly global financial centres are in New York and Asia.

Nothing in what you quoted is predicated on that outcome. Long term the EU is going to want it to be Paris and/or Frankfurt rather than London and will craft legislation and treaties that the UK can no longer veto with that goal in mind. China, Japan and the USA have economies that produce goods or handle resources in a way that organically builds a market for a world class financial services centre. The UK on its own post-Brexit does not. Talk of deregulation under Thatcher was always a euphemism for money laundering and global pressure to drain the swamp on that is ongoing and won't go away.

Edited December 27, 2020 by LongTimeLurker

[bendan]

11 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Nothing in what you quoted in predicated on that outcome. Long term the EU is going to want it to be Paris and/or Frankfurt rather than London and will craft legislation and treaties that the UK can no longer veto with that goal in mind. China, Japan and the USA have economies that produce goods or handle resources in a way that organically builds a market for a world class financial services centre. The UK on its own post-Brexit does not. Talk of deregulation under Thatcher was always a euphemism for money laundering and global pressure to drain the swamp on that is ongoing and won't go away.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but one of the EU's problems is that it has lots of places vying for financial business and no governments will accept any artificial attempt to back a single winner. Another problem is that if it seeks to hinder London, for example by blocking Euro clearing outside of the EU, it also stops it in NY/Tokyo etc, which is not really in the EU's interest. 

I don't agree that in today's world the huge production of goods is required to create a world class financial centre. Singapore is more of a global centre than Shanghai. A large number of pretty intangible elements are involved, but perceptions of stability (through rule of law, political history and soft power) and social/cultural links can be quite important.

Edited December 27, 2020 by bendan

[LongTimeLurker]

Singapore is renowned for money laundering as are some other former British colonies like Cyprus and the Seychelles. The good o!d US of A is no stranger to these kinds of escapades. Puerto Rico's pseudo-colonial status has its uses for America's 1% just as Jersey and the Cayman Islands do for the UK's.

Edited December 27, 2020 by LongTimeLurker