Donathan Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 Nothing will change really even if May did resign. The Irish backstop problem will still be there and unsolvable. It's going to dawn on Brexiteers one day that if they want to exit the EU in the near future then they will have to sacrifice N.Ireland. There may be an outside chance of winning a GE majority if they decided to go for it, but I can't see that scenario for either the Tories or Labour. Both will rely on either the DUP (for the Tories) or the SNP (for Labour). A united Ireland will inevitably lead to an independent Scotland and England with perhaps Wales will go it alone. If they don't want that to happen then they need to ditch leaving the EU until they are strong enough to win an outright majority in parliament. For some, that wait is too long. Independent Scotland is a serious possibility in the next 5-10 years.United Ireland is slightly more far fetched though. As much as they don’t want the backstop/Brexit in general, there’s still a Protestant majority that don’t want United Ireland, and a successful border poll is contingent on the Republic approving a United Ireland which isn’t a sure thing either. I almost wonder if an independent NI within the EU is a more workable solution that United Ireland albeit that would be a very small country.As for Wales, there is absolutely no chance they’ll be independent in my lifetime (I’m 24). Not only is public support for it in single figures according to opinion polls, but they voted for Brexit and even Plaid Cymru policy focuses on further devolution rather than outright independence. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Donathan said: Independent Scotland is a serious possibility in the next 5-10 years. United Ireland is slightly more far fetched though. As much as they don’t want the backstop/Brexit in general, there’s still a Protestant majority that don’t want United Ireland, and a successful border poll is contingent on the Republic approving a United Ireland which isn’t a sure thing either. I almost wonder if an independent NI within the EU is a more workable solution that United Ireland albeit that would be a very small country. As for Wales, there is absolutely no chance they’ll be independent in my lifetime (I’m 24). Not only is public support for it in single figures according to opinion polls, but they voted for Brexit and even Plaid Cymru policy focuses on further devolution rather than outright independence. I wouldn't say a United Ireland is that far fetched. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 Forecasts indicating another heavy defeat for May's deal on Tuesday - probably well into 3 figures. My hope is that they will revoke A50 - not just delay it. It should be kicked into touch for at least 5 years with the promise then of another referendum which would hopefully shut the brexiteers up for a while. That would give business some certainty and lets face it, the best deal we have right now is the one we are in at the moment. Anything else would be a recipe for varying degrees of chaos.May, the ERG and the DUP are now desperately taking the piss; in the face of all evidence and reason they are playing the democratic deficit card.If there is an extension I hope the EU makes it conditional on a further public vote but my real fear is that THEIR bottle crashes in the final days and May gets to push her shite deal across the line. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 I wouldn't say a United Ireland is that far fetched. NI voters are unhappy with Brexit, agreed, but this doesn’t suggests that the Protestant majority would prefer to join the Republic, nor pea it suggest that the Republic wants them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 1 hour ago, ICTJohnboy said: Forecasts indicating another heavy defeat for May's deal on Tuesday - probably well into 3 figures. My hope is that they will revoke A50 - not just delay it. It should be kicked into touch for at least 5 years with the promise then of another referendum which would hopefully shut the brexiteers up for a while. That would give business some certainty and lets face it, the best deal we have right now is the one we are in at the moment. Anything else would be a recipe for varying degrees of chaos. I totally agree, but equally the Brexiters know that if they lose the battle this time around that they’ve probably lost it for good. The democratic deficit argument that some/most/all Brexiteers are mouthing is absolute nonsense. They know that there is no desire for Brexit now and that the overwhelming majority of new voters are opposed to Brexit. The democratic deficit is forcing Brexit upon these folk. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: I totally agree, but equally the Brexiters know that if they lose the battle this time around that they’ve probably lost it for good. The democratic deficit argument that some/most/all Brexiteers are mouthing is absolute nonsense. They know that there is no desire for Brexit now and that the overwhelming majority of new voters are opposed to Brexit. The democratic deficit is forcing Brexit upon these folk. Presumably they changed their tune when they heard that you had changed yours! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: Presumably they changed their tune when they heard that you had changed yours! Three-quarters of newly eligible voters would back remain in second poll https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/09/new-young-voters-want-peoples-vote-strongly-remain-survey 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Three-quarters of newly eligible voters would back remain in second poll https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/09/new-young-voters-want-peoples-vote-strongly-remain-survey Interesting and encouraging but I'm inclined to wonder if that would apply across the UK as a whole. I suspect that newly eligible voters in Accrington would vote leave - and that would be right across Accrington as a hole. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: Interesting and encouraging but I'm inclined to wonder if that would apply across the UK as a whole. I suspect that newly eligible voters in Accrington would vote leave - and that would be right across Accrington as a hole. Do you have any other evidence to back up his up or is it just speculation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 Alistair Campbell now arguing in the Guardian that May’s deal has to fail first before a second referendum can be pushed for. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanburn Dave Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 Polls are voluntary and most people asked for their views probably didn't want to speak to some random. Reckon for every 1 person who participates there's another 10 that tell the pollster to bolt. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Do you have any other evidence to back up his up or is it just speculation. Evidence to back up my assertion that Accrington is a hole? Yes, tons. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 22 minutes ago, NotThePars said: Alistair Campbell now arguing in the Guardian that May’s deal has to fail first before a second referendum can be pushed for. That won't necessarily solve anything. What if the result was 52 to 48 for remain? The UK as a whole will always be divided on this issue, but no reason why Scotland shouldn't ramp up the process of an Indyref2 with guarantees, that we would remain part of, or rejoin the EU. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: That won't necessarily solve anything. What if the result was 52 to 48 for remain? The UK as a whole will always be divided on this issue, but no reason why Scotland shouldn't ramp up the process of an Indyref2 with guarantees, that we would remain part of, or rejoin the EU. Quite. It's more that Campbell now seems to be suggesting that a People's Vote is actually quite a complicated prospect that can't just be flung out on a whim. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 I like the Kyle plan for a referendum on May's deal or Remain if she loses the vote. You can't just ignore the first referendum result and revoke article 50 without asking the question again but with a more informed electorate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, welshbairn said: I like the Kyle plan for a referendum on May's deal or Remain if she loses the vote. You can't just ignore the first referendum result and revoke article 50 without asking the question again but with a more informed electorate. The lack of an informed electorate/debate last time has much, if not everything to do with the chaotic mess we are in now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbitterandgrumpy Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: The lack of an informed electorate/debate last time has much, if not everything to do with the chaotic mess we are in now. And would an informed Accrington electorate have voted different? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, oldbitterandgrumpy said: And would an informed Accrington electorate have voted different? Sadly, there's no such thing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbitterandgrumpy Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, oldbitterandgrumpy said: And would an informed Accrington electorate have voted different? Actually, daft question, some folk are just on auto-pilot when they vote. You're right about the almost criminal mis-information that was spread about at the time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 Hopefully it will have sunk in that quite a few leave voters' jobs could be at risk if we leave, and they won't really be risking anything if we stay. ie. Self interest trumping emotion. Lot of lemmings about though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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