GTG_03 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 I have no doubt Scotland will be independent one day but not in the immediate future i.e not within the next 10 years. Even brexit couldn't shift the polls. Sturgeon is adopting a gradualist approach as she knows a hastily called second referendum followed by a loss will put independence on the back burner possibly for good, if the example of Quebec is anything to go by. It is a difficult one as if it's a no vote again then that's it for at least 10 years as you say. The folk who have moved from no to yes seem to have been just about evened out by former indy supporters who prefer the UK to the EU.It all depends on how the negotiations go for the UK. if we get a shit deal and it will hurt the economy then it may be enough for a yes vote. A few carrots will be dangled as well for the Scots if an indyref is called. 'Stay and we'll give you powers over fishing'. That sort of thing.I actually think it'll be a lot worse for the UK than previously suspected. A shit deal and theresa may telling us we need to make some sacrifices to 'make Britain great again'. Reduced maternity leave, less holidays, longer hours, later retirement age. That sort of thing. Hope I'm wrong but this tory party are nasty b*****ds. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevthedee Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 I have no doubt Scotland will be independent one day but not in the immediate future i.e not within the next 10 years. Even brexit couldn't shift the polls. Sturgeon is adopting a gradualist approach as she knows a hastily called second referendum followed by a loss will put independence on the back burner possibly for good, if the example of Quebec is anything to go by. Many people will expect/demand a 2nd Indyref far quicker because of this statement but I reckon Sturgeon will play the waiting game,she won't rush into anything even if she has the material change she spoke about. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 38 minutes ago, kevthedee said: Many people will expect/demand a 2nd Indyref far quicker because of this statement but I reckon Sturgeon will play the waiting game,she won't rush into anything even if she has the material change she spoke about. There'll be no referendum unless North Sea oil revenues recover and the deficit declines substantially. Then there is the issue of which currency an independent Scotland would use. May will be even less likely than Cameron to agree to a currency union. Sterlingisation, the Adam Smith Institute's idea which Salmond adopted, would be very risky 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williemillersmoustache Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 (edited) As if it would be May who gets to agree or disagree with anything post-indy. She'd be out on her ear, the PM that killed Britain. Edited January 17, 2017 by williemillersmoustache 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Brexit hasn't shifted the polls because Brexit hasn't happened yet. It's really that simple. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hehawhehaw Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 hour ago, kevthedee said: Many people will expect/demand a 2nd Indyref far quicker because of this statement but I reckon Sturgeon will play the waiting game,she won't rush into anything even if she has the material change she spoke about. Her latest statement is May's staement makes sepref2 more likely = theres no gonny be a sepref 2. Why? Because of Cui bono. It will not benefit weeseaweeds plans for separation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 I'm not at all convinced that a referendum is the correct response, but it's difficult to see what else can be done. May is a gormless clownshoes figure who possesses no actual mandate to set the terms of Brexit, leading a divided governing party with a slim majority in Parliament. In that scenario you'd expect a competent opposition to influence the government substantially through defeats and amendments, but the mumbleclown isn't even remotely up to the task. May gets a free ride to do whatever she wants, because England has only one, completely dominant political party. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capybara Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 http://derekbateman.scot/ Derek Bateman,s take on the Brexit Shambles. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 46 minutes ago, NotThePars said: Brexit hasn't shifted the polls because Brexit hasn't happened yet. It's really that simple. It shifted the polls in the Richmond park by election. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, sparky88 said: It shifted the polls in the Richmond park by election. The polls did shift though, in the immediate aftermath of the vote, two separate polls showed a majority for Independence, before sinking back to standard post IndyRef levels after the summer. The effect, no doubt of all those terrible things people said Brexit was going to be suddenly being made manifest, before a phoney war type attitude developed as nothing actually happened. That needle can be moved, and if Brexit is suddenly again the terrible thing robbing us of free market access, robbing the economy of billions etc etc, then there is every chance the polls will move again. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 hour ago, NotThePars said: Brexit hasn't shifted the polls because Brexit hasn't happened yet. It's really that simple. This is the simple truth. As we get closer to the real Brexit situation and we see the market responses and economic deterioration then the shit will finally hit the fan. No amount of politicking or spin will be able to mitigate the worst effects and the political situation throughout the UK will change. Can't see any beneficiaries in Scotland rather than the SNP; maybe the LibDems depending on their general standing by then. Support for Independence will increase. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, sparky88 said: It shifted the polls in the Richmond park by election. It was tactical voting that cost Goldsmith his seat. The local voters punished him for forcing a needless by-election on them. The Labour vote collapsed by several thousand (more than double Olney's majority) due to tactical voting. The Greens, strong in parts of the constituency, did not even field a candidate. Goldsmith stood as an independent in the by-election without the support of Conservative HQ. His local association was instructed not to campaign him. He had a much smaller number of activists working for him. A large proportion of Conservative voters simply stayed at home. The Lib Dems held that seat comfortably up to the 2010 general election. They controlled the council with a large majority up to 2010 too. Goldsmith had a massive personal vote, including voters who support the Lib Dems in council elections, in 2015. The Lib Dems bussed in hundreds of members from all over the country to campaign in the by-election. They won't be around at the next general election. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 Is Scotland independent yet? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 That fat clown Davidson is awfy quiet 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 It doesn't matter how hard Brexit is, or how hard the tories f**k Scotland, we still contain enough utter shitebags who will always happily vote "no" to Independence to ensure more of the same. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Time to dust off that yes badge, the campaign begins again. Or get new ones.I need one.Hard Brexit makes IndyRef2 in 2018 almost a certainty.And I'll be voting Yes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 It doesn't matter how hard Brexit is, or how hard the tories f**k Scotland, we still contain enough utter shitebags who will always happily vote "no" to Independence to ensure more of the same. We're such a proud nation...... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 I disagree and I think deep down you know this isnt true. Keep thinking that way if it makes you feel better though.It'll be much harder for another better together campaign due to brexit. I've no doubt the result will be more favourable to yes this time. Remains to be seen if it's enough to get over 50 % The No vote imho is a lot softer than the Yes vote - we saw that in the last referendum where No's massive lead was whittled down over just 6 months. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Connolly Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 One of the biggest issues for Indyref 2 would be the voter apathy - how many referendums, elections or others have the Scottish voting public had to show up for in the last 5 years? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mark Connolly said: One of the biggest issues for Indyref 2 would be the voter apathy - how many referendums, elections or others have the Scottish voting public had to show up for in the last 5 years? If 10% don't turn up compared to last time then YES wins imo. What the last couple of weeks of scaremongering before the last referendum ensured was that the unionist vote would get out. Also the yougov poll showing yes in the lead. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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