ICTJohnboy Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: The level of stupidity knows no bounds. However the idea that a No Deal Brexit on 31 October will be the end of the issue will be hard to top in the stupidity stakes. Are you now accepting a No deal Brexit is more than a distinct possibility? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 On 11/08/2019 at 19:36, Granny Danger said: TBH I think what is happening now is on a totally different level to what has happened in the last 15 years and beyond. In the same way that Trump’s presidency cannot be compared to what has gone before. We have a Tory PM who is openly willing to impose a decision that will have an horrendous, long-term impact on the UK for populist reasons. In the knowledge of a likely election he is making spending promises that a Labour leader would be getting heavily scrutinised for. Regardless of what side of the debate you’re on I don’t think comparisons with the recent past have much relevance. I disagree. I think Brexit will be harmful but less so than Osborne's cutting of public spending in a recession. It's just that a largely technical debate about economic policy generated less media/public interest. Also, there are strong arguments that austerity caused brexit. The current demagogue is just bungling the implementation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 29 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: Are you now accepting a No deal Brexit is more than a distinct possibility? No I still don’t think it will happen. Equally I am convinced that the EU will not budge. I also suspect that Boris Johnson is desperately hoping that Parliament will stop him. It will be the best short term outcome for him and the one most likely to see victory for him in the inevitable GE. His big problem is that even if he’s returned with a majority then the EU still won’t budge but he his position be safe(r). At least until the shit really hits the fan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malky3 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: No I still don’t think it will happen. Equally I am convinced that the EU will not budge. I also suspect that Boris Johnson is desperately hoping that Parliament will stop him. It will be the best short term outcome for him and the one most likely to see victory for him in the inevitable GE. His big problem is that even if he’s returned with a majority then the EU still won’t budge but he his position be safe(r). At least until the shit really hits the fan. If Parliament block him that would see a surge in support for Farage that would damage the Conservatives and which may make the Brexit Party the biggest in the UK. Its highly unlikely that it would suit Boris Johnson. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 26 minutes ago, Malky3 said: If Parliament block him that would see a surge in support for Farage From gods mouth to your ear. Quote that would damage the Conservatives and which may make the Brexit Party the biggest in the UK. 2 years 8 months till there is a need for a new general election. Bozo has that long to come up with workable Brexit, a fudge around it or for voting to turn against it. Suspending parliament and pushing through a Brexit that has a serious risk of dishing long term damage to the UK economy is a stigma that would live with the conservatives for decades. With bond yields where they are for gilts, tbills and even German bunds, fixed income traders seem to be betting on a reasonable chance of a world recession. Even if Brexit did not cause a serious economic event, it would get the blame of any impact on the UK from a very large part of the population. Suspending parliament to force a no deal Brexit is the act of people desperately afraid of the knowledge that public sentiment is running against them. You can see passed the rhetoric when you look at the stakes they are gambling. Your shitting it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 50 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: No I still don’t think it will happen. Equally I am convinced that the EU will not budge. I also suspect that Boris Johnson is desperately hoping that Parliament will stop him. It will be the best short term outcome for him and the one most likely to see victory for him in the inevitable GE. His big problem is that even if he’s returned with a majority then the EU still won’t budge but he his position be safe(r). At least until the shit really hits the fan. I'm inclined to agree with that and the EU certainly aren't going to budge on the backstop issue. Why should they? Stupid as Boris is, I'm pretty sure he knows as well as anyone that a No Deal will cause untold damage to the economy. As you say he is living in hope that Parliament will stop him. That could be done relatively easily if the opposition had some kind of competent leader in place. If a No Deal was to be the final outcome, I'd blame Corbyn rather than Boris for the ensuing mayhem. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Malky3 said: If Parliament block him that would see a surge in support for Farage that would damage the Conservatives and which may make the Brexit Party the biggest in the UK. Its highly unlikely that it would suit Boris Johnson. It’s all conjecture but I’d like you to explain why there would be a surge in support for the Brexit Party at the expense of the Tories if Johnson is stymied (or perceived as being stymied) by Parliament. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/13/brexit-remain-radicalisation-fbpe-peoples-vote A good article about the FBPE mob with a wee bit of trolling and a lot of idiots hoisted by their own petard. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Bercow to the rescue? https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17834613.john-bercow-vows-fight-attempt-close-parliament-run-up-brexit/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Phillip Hammond writes to the PM asking him to re-think leaving without a deal, but stops short of explicitly threatening to vote down Johnson's government. 20 senior Tory MPs including Rory Stewart, David Gauke and Greg Clark co-signed the letter. No doubt fluffy will be there as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue-Toon Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 Boris off the hook. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49345223 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inanimate Carbon Rod Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 Its officially ok to lie if you’re a politician. Lol. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 According to the latest Survation poll only 19% want a No Deal Brexit. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteRoseKillie Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: According to the latest Survation poll only 19% want a No Deal Brexit. Higher than you'd expect - but then, wasn't there some poll or other that found a high percentage of people thinking "no deal" meant Status Quo Ante? I'd reckon the percentage who actually want no deal would be a) In very low single figures and either b) Very rich or c) Very, very stupid. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: According to the latest Survation poll only 19% want a No Deal Brexit. Quote When asked about their second preference outcome of the Brexit process, 58% of respondents said leaving the EU with a deal, 24% said leaving without a deal, and 10% stated remaining in the EU, with 8% unsure. https://www.survation.com/general-election-voting-intention-and-brexit-preferences-poll/ So long as people accept polling companies as being valid (i.e. dont dismiss polls they dont like) then this shows that the tories are in a tight spot. They have not the numbers in parliament to enforce leaving by any conceivable deal unless more relent to May's deal and going out without a deal will be a legacy they will live with for decades. The other set up is to set up a second referendum but that will tear their party apart. Both Labour and the Tories are split in a way that would make a mind bending "game theory" puzzle. Both face very significant risks with every move open to them. (Headline voting figures are notable in the way Survation has moved by I am wary of reading much into a big move when they also polled on such a key issue. ) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteRoseKillie Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, dorlomin said: https://www.survation.com/general-election-voting-intention-and-brexit-preferences-poll/ So long as people accept polling companies as being valid (i.e. dont dismiss polls they dont like) then this shows that the tories are in a tight spot. They have not the numbers in parliament to enforce leaving by any conceivable deal unless more relent to May's deal and going out without a deal will be a legacy they will live with for decades. The other set up is to set up a second referendum but that will tear their party apart. Both Labour and the Tories are split in a way that would make a mind bending "game theory" puzzle. Both face very significant risks with every move open to them. (Headline voting figures are notable in the way Survation has moved by I am wary of reading much into a big move when they also polled on such a key issue. ) The Tories have much more to be worried about in taking to the Public in an Election. Labourt have a radical set of policies which, like last time, will appeal across the spectrum. The Tories, already preparing for a GE, are simply making fantasy announcements which are about as substantial as single ply bogroll, and shaking an imaginary Money Tree that by now, even the BBC is starting to question. Leave or Remain is one thing, and the Tories have made it their thing. They have nothing else, and the above pie chart will not fill them with joy. Whether we want to have a chance of a fairer society which offers our kids and grandkids a future is a deeper question, and one which a lot of former WC Tories (see Weeping QT woman) are realising the answer to - a decent future under the Tories will never happen to anyone outside of the 1%. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dee_62 Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said: Higher than you'd expect - but then, wasn't there some poll or other that found a high percentage of people thinking "no deal" meant Status Quo Ante? I think the fact that the pollsters here have qualified "no deal" by adding "leave the EU with..." means that this should remove those numpties. Still shows that more people want to leave (with or without a deal) than remain in that original graph. It also shows why we're in such an almighty mess. By aggregating all forms of leaving under a single "leave" choice in a binary referendum, we've guaranteed years/decades of argument and counter argument. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteRoseKillie Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 1 minute ago, dee_62 said: I think the fact that the pollsters here have qualified "no deal" by adding "leave the EU with..." means that this should remove those numpties. Still shows that more people want to leave (with or without a deal) than remain in that original graph. It also shows why we're in such an almighty mess. By aggregating all forms of leaving under a single "leave" choice in a binary referendum, we've guaranteed years/decades of argument and counter argument. It'll remove some of them, but by no means all. There are some really stupid people out there.* Who do these companies actually approach? Not just me, but none of my work colleagues, Union friends or fellow LP members have ever participated. Obvious political leanings aside, my job wouldn't be seen as especially left-wing. *Who have the same number of votes as you or I. Which I have no problem with, if only they'd use it a bit more often. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 1 minute ago, WhiteRoseKillie said: The Tories have much more to be worried about in taking to the Public in an Election. Labourt have a radical set of policies which, like last time, will appeal across the spectrum. If every election was "like last time" we would not need elections. Last time they faced the worst general election campaign by one of the two main parties I have seen in my life. This time the tories will not be caught out by thinking they turn up with picture of May and waltz to a landslide. You and many on here seem to be in complete denial but about the only thing they have for a large number of people anymore is "its us or the tories", that will be the only source of a lift in the polls they can expect. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteRoseKillie Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, dorlomin said: If every election was "like last time" we would not need elections. Last time they faced the worst general election campaign by one of the two main parties I have seen in my life. This time the tories will not be caught out by thinking they turn up with picture of May and waltz to a landslide. You and many on here seem to be in complete denial but about the only thing they have for a large number of people anymore is "its us or the tories", that will be the only source of a lift in the polls they can expect. I meant the swing in favour of Labour once the Public actually got to hear the message. As I'm sure you are very well aware. Labour's policies gained massive public approval. The Tories piss-poor campaign helped, undoubtedly - when your flagship policy which actually makes it* is to retain free tv licenses for your core support**, they'd have got absolutely creamed without BBC and Press support. This time round, with Brexit completely fucked up, austerity (over or not) continuing to bite, and deeper, Public Services continuing to be decimated, more and more people are being personally affected by these horrible, horrible people. What exactly can a Tory tell a potential voter is a good enough reason to support them, given the collateral damage already evident to our society, status and our people after ten years of their policies? *Taxing the dead being a step too far - although I wouldn't rule it out next time around. If that traitor Patel can make a come-back, all bets are off on this. ** Which they reneged on, while sneakily trying to pretend it was all the nasty old Beeb. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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