Granny Danger Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Looks like Johnson has conceded* on the issue of regulatory alignment. Good news for the country but it will offer an excuse to the Labour MPs wanting to support Johnson. * should that be “surrendered” rather than “conceded”. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the jambo-rocker Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 58 minutes ago, renton said: So here's a thing (and sorry to bring yet another thread back to independence) but I've never held with the view, most visibly espoused by Stuart Campbell, that the SNP should do a deal with the Tories to pass the Brexit deal for at least an s30 order for a referendum. If only because I believe Scottish voters would react poorly to what might be seen as a purely tactical move with little principle by the SNP. There is no point having a referendum if you can't win it. On the other hand, the deal Boris is trying to get though for N.Ireland looks now a lot like the paper the Scottish Government put out in 2016 about differentiating Scotland from the rUK over brexit. And I know that the Tories would never seriously dream of offering it, but if they did, and got EU buy in to differentiate Scotland willingly to get the votes to force differentiation on N.Ireland in spite of the DUP - would you take that? You lose the DUP and any Scottish Tory without a hope of career advancement but you still have a net gain of about 14.... I think if it gets to the point where after this Saturday, and any deal looks untenable (and I know it has been house of lords bill passed to ensure we can't leave no deal, but when has legality ever stopped us), then the SNP could play the "we had to make sure some deal went through or we'd be in LDC territory within WTO parameters" then I could absolutely see that being a good enough reason. Until then, keep giving Westminster all the rope they want until there's all but no coming back from it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Ulster says MAYBE! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Ulster says MAYBE! ... and there's your Tory majority in the next GE. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Brussels says MAYBE! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Then again.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, renton said: ... and there's your Tory majority in the next GE. Not so sure. If the deal goes ahead the election will be fought over the final settlement aims and/or a referendum. There will likely have to be a technical extension at least to get the i's dotted and the legislation ratified on both sides, giving time to force a general election before exit. If that happens the GE could go either way, especially if Labour campaign well to expose why the Tories want to diverge from EU regulations. Edited October 17, 2019 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 You were saying.....looks like they are lubbing up and about to be the Patsies. Good enough for the sectarian scum.The DUP could show Fat Eck, Angus Robertson and wee neddy Mhari exactly what it means to be The Only Show In Town. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Not so sure. If the deal goes ahead the election will be fought over the final settlement aims and/or a referendum. There will likely have to be a technical extension at least to get the i's dotted and the legislation ratified on both sides, giving time to force a general election before exit. If that happens the GE could go either way, especially if Labour campaign well to expose why the Tories want to diverge from EU regulations. I think there - ironically - always was something in Theresa May's Brexit means Brexit rhetoric. At this point, so long as it's done, most folk aren't going to give two fucks what it looks like and I can imagine the audible groan if Labour subsequently want to get back into it with another referendum with remain vs. the deal on the table. I also suspect that Labour would be happy to be relieved of the burden of talking about Brexit as well, and that Corbyn especially would feel on much safer ground without it. Edited October 17, 2019 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted October 17, 2019 Author Share Posted October 17, 2019 Johnson will now ignore the DUP, ask the EU not to extend, bring back that deal v no deal on Saturday and labour would be forced to back or abstain. I'd say Macron could be persuaded on this. He's clearly sick fed up of the Little Englanders Seer 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 (edited) 14 minutes ago, renton said: I think there - ironically - always was something in Theresa May's Brexit means Brexit rhetoric. At this point, so long as it's done, most folk aren't going to give two fucks what it looks like and I can imagine the audible groan if Labour subsequently want to get back into it with another referendum with remain vs. the deal on the table. I also suspect that Labour would be happy to be relieved of the burden of talking about Brexit as well, and that Corbyn especially would feel on much safer ground without it. Agree about a referendum. If Labour campaign on a closed alignment, workers rights, customs union etc settlement I think they could win a GE though. The Withdrawal Agreement doesn't preclude that, the Political Declaration (if they have one) isn't worth the paper it's written on. Edited October 17, 2019 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Northern Ireland to remain under eu customs rules etc [emoji23]The dinasour deniers will need a massive pay off to agree to this 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Just now, doulikefish said: Northern Ireland to remain under eu customs rules etc It’s not hard to imagine Johnson’s face and Trump’s voice. “It’s a great deal, it’s the best deal ever. Everyone said it couldn’t be done but I did it. OK so it won’t get past the losers in Parliament but then they don’t want a great deal”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Deal fails to pass. Labour offer to support it with confirmatory referendum. Will Johnson (or enough MPs in total) buy that? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Has the extension request been sent or does this mean it doesn't have to be requested? I struggle to see it getting parliamentary support whatever the case. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 31 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Not so sure. If the deal goes ahead the election will be fought over the final settlement aims and/or a referendum. There will likely have to be a technical extension at least to get the i's dotted and the legislation ratified on both sides, giving time to force a general election before exit. If that happens the GE could go either way, especially if Labour campaign well to expose why the Tories want to diverge from EU regulations. If there's a majority for a deal there will be a majority for holding off on a GE until after the deal is done. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ross. said: Has the extension request been sent or does this mean it doesn't have to be requested? I struggle to see it getting parliamentary support whatever the case. Doesn't have to be sent unless Parliament rejects the deal tomorrow. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Just now, welshbairn said: Doesn't have to be sent unless Parliament rejects the deal tomorrow. So if parliament rejects then we have to ask the EU to extend again when there is likely no chance of substantial change to the current agreement? Can't see the EU extending further in those circumstances. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DigOutYourSoul Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 I can’t see a deal getting through parliament, so still think no deal is likely. Can’t see many concessions being made on the Nay side, and also can’t see the EU budging much further. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Ross. said: So if parliament rejects then we have to ask the EU to extend again when there is likely no chance of substantial change to the current agreement? Can't see the EU extending further in those circumstances. It would likely be on the basis of holding a GE, or a confirmatory referendum if they can amend the withdrawal bill accordingly. Can't see the EU refusing that when the alternative is a no deal Brexit in 2 weeks. Edited October 17, 2019 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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