Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

Another point and laugh moment for the EU.

[Detournement]

The ERG loons have rallied and are adamant they won't vote for this.

That leaves May relying on the Blairite Labour MPs to get this through. 

[DrewDon]

RT if you want this legend to come back and sort out Brexit!

[falkirkthebigclub]

Turmoils coming home.

[dorlomin]

Clusterfarce. 

[zidane's child]

Step forward Dominic Raab

[Bully Wee Villa]

Raab C Brexit. 

[harry94]

Apparently SNP, Labour and Lib Dems have all been briefed by Downing Street.

If May can convince 50%+1 of Tory MPs to back a soft Brexit plan (which she will feel she can), her position as leader is secure for 12 months which would let her hunt votes cross-party. Reverting to EFTA & EEA seems the only way that Brexit can really be done in the short term while they work on a long-term plan and I think she would win support across parliament for it. It'd actually cause a lot of disruption to the independence movement if the debate was argued on the basis of the UK being out of these.

[ayrshire_nomad]

Scenes

[John Lambies Doos]

Apparently SNP, Labour and Lib Dems have all been briefed by Downing Street.
If May can convince 50%+1 of Tory MPs to back a soft Brexit plan (which she will feel she can), her position as leader is secure for 12 months which would let her hunt votes cross-party. Reverting to EFTA & EEA seems the only way that Brexit can really be done in the short term while they work on a long-term plan and I think she would win support across parliament for it. It'd actually cause a lot of disruption to the independence movement if the debate was argued on the basis of the UK being out of these.

Nonsense if she does that Rees Mogg will bring her down.

[Mackie The Staggie]

Wait....the same Dominic Raab who suggested that immigration was the cause of rising house prices.  When pushed to provide the evidence for such a claim, he produced a document based on an out of date model which was never meant to used for that kind of analysis.  That Dominic Raab?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/13/housing-minister-dominic-raab-defends-claim-of-immigration-pushing-up-house-prices

 

[dirty dingus]

13 minutes ago, harry94 said:

Apparently SNP, Labour and Lib Dems have all been briefed by Downing Street.

If May can convince 50%+1 of Tory MPs to back a soft Brexit plan (which she will feel she can), her position as leader is secure for 12 months which would let her hunt votes cross-party. Reverting to EFTA & EEA seems the only way that Brexit can really be done in the short term while they work on a long-term plan and I think she would win support across parliament for it. It'd actually cause a lot of disruption to the independence movement if the debate was argued on the basis of the UK being out of these.

Why would the SNP support a party that is trying to shut down the Scottish Parliament. She would have to offer to cancel the power grab and  to give the SP the right to call a referendum. Never trust a Tory. 

[NotThePars]

Daily Politics is some laugh right now.

[doulikefish]

Step forward Dominic Raab

Workhouses for the poor Raab

[Granny Danger]

46 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Nonsense if she does that Rees Mogg will bring her down.

Rees Mogg cannot bring May down.

There are two distinct things he can do.  He possibly has enough support to force a leadership election; if he does and it's a two horse race May will win.

He can oppose the issue in Parliament, though I am not sure exactly how and when Parliament votes on this next.  If he does that successfully it would probably lead to a GE, but the arithmetic is unclear.  If there was a chance to force an election I imagine all the opposition parties other than the DUP would be on one side.  There is a possibility that Brexiteer Labour MP's might side with May but if they passed up the chance of bringing down the government then they would surely be finished.

Whilst the hard line Brexiteers in the Tory Party have been the most vocal I reckon they are still very much in the minority.  Most Tories want a) the appearance of Brexit; b) minimum flak in both political and economic terms; and c) to avoid a GE.

Of course the response from the EU to may's proposal may render all discussion superfluous.

 

[John Lambies Doos]

Rees Mogg cannot bring May down.
There are two distinct things he can do.  He possibly has enough support to force a leadership election; if he does and it's a two horse race May will win.
He can oppose the issue in Parliament, though I am not sure exactly how and when Parliament votes on this next.  If he does that successfully it would probably lead to a GE, but the arithmetic is unclear.  If there was a chance to force an election I imagine all the opposition parties other than the DUP would be on one side.  There is a possibility that Brexiteer Labour MP's might side with May but if they passed up the chance of bringing down the government then they would surely be finished.
Whilst the hard line Brexiteers in the Tory Party have been the most vocal I reckon they are still very much in the minority.  Most Tories want a) the appearance of Brexit; b) minimum flak in both political and economic terms; and c) to avoid a GE.
Of course the response from the EU to may's proposal may render all discussion superfluous.
 

Of course he can GD. Him and his 60extreme colleagues just stop voting with government. Gov have no majority even with the DUP. They collapse

[Mark Connolly]

Heard a Tory backbencher on 5Live describing the reasons for Davies going, and saying that May's plan does not appeal to the Tory "eurosceptics"

Its still amazing to hear this word being used, given that scepticism is based in doubt, rather than a total hatred of everything EU.

[harry94]

1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Nonsense if she does that Rees Mogg will bring her down.

But how? There needs to be a majority of Conservative MPs to vote against her in the confidence motion if the vote is triggered. A majority of the parliamentary party despise Rees-Mogg.

1 hour ago, dirty dingus said:

Why would the SNP support a party that is trying to shut down the Scottish Parliament. She would have to offer to cancel the power grab and  to give the SP the right to call a referendum. Never trust a Tory. 

There's no way on hell the SNP would reject an offer as good as EEA. Reject that and they then share the responsibility for the job losses and the damaged economy that then occurs. Also simplifies a fair bit down the line.

[harry94]

14 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Of course he can GD. Him and his 60extreme colleagues just stop voting with government. Gov have no majority even with the DUP. They collapse

They'd never ever vote against a confidence motion of the government itself, that'd be batshit crazy even by their standards. They'd be held responsible for an election which could put Corbyn in power.

The only way the government collapses before the general election is voluntarily (which is unlikely after the last debacle) or by-election defeats. It's just not happening. May might go and there may be multiple PMs but the Conservative government will stay in power in one form or another.

[Adamski]

Jeremy Corbyn isn't going to be winning any elections. 2017 was his high watermark, and his narrative on Brexit since then will continue to turn off remainers in droves. If May did go (and I don't think she will) then the Tories could pick pretty much anyone they liked without worrying about a challenge from a Corbyn-led Labour party.