June 8th General Election

[mikedafc]

Putting aside the completely undemocratic nature of HoL if it's members oppose Brexit it's because they think it's a bad thing for the country, which it is of course.  That's not playing party politics.

Until you see final deal we get you can't say either way whether leaving EU is a bad thing or not. Unelected Labour/Lib Dems Lords should not get in the way of democrat process

Sent from my Hudl HT7S3 using Pie and Bovril mobile app

[Granny Danger]

Yeah I can.  Leaving the EU will be a bad thing.  There, I said it.

[Fide]

16 minutes ago, mikedafc said:

Until you see final deal we get you can't say either way whether leaving EU is a bad thing or not. Unelected Labour/Lib Dems Lords should not get in the way of democrat process

Sent from my Hudl HT7S3 using Pie and Bovril mobile app
 

f**k me.

You've got a Hudl.

[Jamaldo]

Yeah I can.  Leaving the EU will be a bad thing.  There, I said it.

Didn't you tactically vote to leave for shits and giggles? Why should anyone trust your analysis?

[Sooky]

Putting aside the completely undemocratic nature of HoL if it's members oppose Brexit it's because they think it's a bad thing for the country, which it is of course.  That's not playing party politics.

I suppose one reason is that depending on what May puts in the manifesto regarding the Brexit negotiations, the HoL will be bound by an extent to to Salisbury Convention? They are much freer to vote against whatever they want now regarding the EU.

[eez-eh]

7 hours ago, beermonkey said:

First chance to come on here since this announcement, but what a shock, a general election !!

It's just an excuse to keep us in the EU, pure & simple, i've always said brexit would never happen, the c***s in charge never wanted it to happen, so don't be surprised if whoever wins the GE wants another brexit vote....Or cancels the whole thing completely.

Democracy is an illusion.

 

7 hours ago, beermonkey said:

It's not fanciful...it's the truth...we're never going to leave the eu, there is no other logical reason to have an election now.

 

6 hours ago, beermonkey said:

Ok....any other logical reason to call an election?

Brexit negotiations will take 2 years (so we're told)

next election will be in 3 years.

why the rush if the tories are keen on brexit? 

 

Brexit was never gonna happen.

 

6 hours ago, beermonkey said:

You think different political parties make a difference?

If i say nothing else on this thread......trust me on this...brexit was never gonna happen & it will not happen, there is no such thing as democracy.

 

6 hours ago, beermonkey said:

Someone else posted this on facebook, pretty much sums up the whole plan.

 

Here's how this general election bollocks is going to play out if we allow it. Theresa May has been told by her Bilderberg masters that it's time to bring Brexit to an end and stick the UK firmly back in the EU before we've even left. They've told her this is how we're gong to do it. Call a general election and make up some bollocks reason for it. Corbyns pro EU Labour Party will then be given strong backing in the media and will use anti-elitist propaganda with slogans like 'power to the people' -- Interesting they believe you can give the people more power by sticking them back In the EU, thus removing over 75% of decision making from UK parliament and then giving a percentage of the 25% remaining to the people lol -- this is designed to appeal to the waining middle class, the working class and in general anyone sick of elitism, which is mostly everybody. Next, Corbyn, predictably, says he won't rule out a second referendum resulting in every Remainer in the country, and those disillusioned with the referendum result, who voted leave, also voting labour. The conservatives are already massively unpopular and Theresa May looks like a dishevelled wicked witch of the West so Labour already has a big advantage. Labour win the election and immediately call for a second EU referendum, which this time will be rigged in favour of remain. And there we go, the UK back in the EU. No doubt the elites also made a financial killing by Brexit happening in the first place through inside knowledge trading, while all along knowing exactly how they were going to stick us back in their dirty little centralisation of power cooking pot. Then on they go with the imposition of the European Superstate, along with an EU army to fight alongside the US against Russia, China, North Korea and Iran -- job done!!!

 

[grazza]

Given its only a month after council elections I think Scottish labour will have a really bad time of it. Losing control of many councils and in particular Glasgow will be massive blow for them. Even if result is worse than expected is Kez likely to stand down or be binned within that month probably not so they will crawl into general election with members and politicians at all time low. It is reasonably possible Murray could lose his seat and they fail to make any ground elsewhere and not have a single MP. Tories will make gains on their share of vote and maybe sneak a few seats with tactical voting.

The few remaining Labour voters will going forward may consider being tactical in future on how they vote whether that's on unionist ground with Tories or anti Tory with SNP. Politicians I think more and more will move to either party for their career. 

Just thought tonight that actually this will likely bring the next Scottish election forward a year to 2020 as it will no longer clash with Westminster elections. If no Indy ref before that point that election will be purely an election on that issue and implementing a referendum before the end of the year whether or not westminister approves. This will possibly force hand of westminister to not contest having an referendum in 2019.

 

 

[Crossbill]

I really don't see Ian Murray losing his seat, in fact I  expect him to come back with a bigger majority.  Same goes for Mundell as well, I'm afraid.

Unfortunately the constitutional issue is going to overshadow all party politics (and lets face it you could barely slip a fag paper between the three unionist parties in Scotland anyway) - far more than it was in 2015 when it seemed like independence was off the table for the foreseeable future.  Tactical voting will be the order of the day with unionists willing to back anyone best placed to upset the SNP.  This is exactly what happened in the Holyrood elections.  Any seat with less than 50% SNP backing is a genuine potential target.

Hope I'm wrong, but I can see the SNP being reduced to somewhere in the 40s.  

[McSpreader]

12 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Putting aside the completely undemocratic nature of HoL if it's members oppose Brexit it's because they think it's a bad thing for the country, which it is of course.  That's not playing party politics.

There's no 'of course' about it . Leaving the undemocratic, unaccountable EU  Expansionist Empire that supports globalisation, the primacy of multi-national businesses and rides roughshod over the wishes of individual nation states  in it's quest for power and influence and totally fails to deal effectively or timely to any crisis it faces is not bad for the UK at all.

In fact, it's bloody fantastic!

[McSpreader]

11 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Yeah I can.  Leaving the EU will be a bad thing.  There, I said it.

^^^^ I refer you to the answer above !!

[renton]

46 minutes ago, Crossbill said:

I really don't see Ian Murray losing his seat, in fact I  expect him to come back with a bigger majority.  Same goes for Mundell as well, I'm afraid.

Unfortunately the constitutional issue is going to overshadow all party politics (and lets face it you could barely slip a fag paper between the three unionist parties in Scotland anyway) - far more than it was in 2015 when it seemed like independence was off the table for the foreseeable future.  Tactical voting will be the order of the day with unionists willing to back anyone best placed to upset the SNP.  This is exactly what happened in the Holyrood elections.  Any seat with less than 50% SNP backing is a genuine potential target.

Hope I'm wrong, but I can see the SNP being reduced to somewhere in the 40s.  

Perhaps, but tactical voting is bloody hard to organize in places where there is more than one viable opposition - actually exacerbated now by the Tories resurgence to 25% in the polls. Labour have the 2nd most votes in many seats, but the Tories have the polling numbers - so who stands aside? The EU debate, and the shape of brexit will be the UK national story of this election and must  percolate into the Scottish part of the election - so how do you convince Lib Dem Remain voters to back a Tory candidate who must by definition be riding May's coattails onto a hard Brexit outside the single market?

bear in mind as well, that for all the tactical voting in '16, the Tories managed a whole two constituency seat gains from the SNP, one of them enabled by a strong Green showing in Edinburgh Central. And the Liberal Democrats managed twice in their old stomping grounds to regain seats, admittedly due to a collapse in the Labour vote.

[renton]

37 minutes ago, McSpreader said:

There's no 'of course' about it . Leaving the undemocratic, unaccountable EU  Expansionist Empire that supports globalisation, the primacy of multi-national businesses and rides roughshod over the wishes of individual nation states  in it's quest for power and influence and totally fails to deal effectively or timely to any crisis it faces is not bad for the UK at all.

In fact, it's bloody fantastic!

Unlike the historically expansionist UK, with an unaccountable head of state and 2nd chamber, that supports globalization and is actively threatening to enhance the primacy of multi-national businesses to keep itself afloat post Brexit, that rides roughshod over the wishes of it's constituent devolved nations, and is famous for it's sclerotic and ineffectual response to most major political, social and economic crises. 

[jmothecat]

The unionist tactical voting thing boggles my mind a little bit. I don't like the SNP but I'm struggling to understand how any Labour voter could see a Tory MP as better than an SNP one, particularly with the hardline traditional Tory politics Theresa May is representative of. Unless the issue of independence is pretty much the be all and end all of your politics, which I think is a lot less likely in no voters than yes voters but that's purely anecdotal and could be total rubbish, then why would you vote for there to be another Tory MP?

I see the Tories have come out to say that Labour and Lib Dem voters should vote Conservative tactically to stop the SNP. I live in an SNP/Labour marginal (not that I expect it to be anything other than an SNP victory), if I get any Tory doorknockers during this campaign I'm going to ask them if they are planning on voting Labour to stop the SNP.

[strichener]

14 hours ago, invergowrie arab said:

Will they f**k. There aren't enough spare votes out there for the Tories to take off other parties. 

I would hardly mention independence in this campagn, back to basics, only the SNP will stop a Tory MP filing through the lobbies for Theresa Mays programme of government

How are they going to stop this programme at Westminster?  Are the SNP standing in seats outside of Scotland?  Even with 59 MPs, the majority of the electorate know that the SNP in Westminster are toothless.

[Londonwell]

10 minutes ago, strichener said:

How are they going to stop this programme at Westminster?  Are the SNP standing in seats outside of Scotland?  Even with 59 MPs, the majority of the electorate know that the SNP in Westminster are toothless.

The point is the SNP will do their job as an opposition party and y'know actually oppose things.

Its a novel political tactic that Labour may pick up one day. 

[Wee Willie]

10 minutes ago, strichener said:

How are they going to stop this programme at Westminster?  Are the SNP standing in seats outside of Scotland?  Even with 59 MPs, the majority of the electorate know that the SNP in Westminster are toothless.

And the majority of the electorate know that the 59 Scottish MPs are toothless unless they support the winning Westminster lot.
So what's new ?

[Fide]

2 hours ago, renton said:

Unlike the historically expansionist UK, with an unaccountable head of state and 2nd chamber, that supports globalization and is actively threatening to enhance the primacy of multi-national businesses to keep itself afloat post Brexit, that rides roughshod over the wishes of it's constituent devolved nations, and is famous for it's sclerotic and ineffectual response to most major political, social and economic crises. 

I was just about to say the exact same thing verbatim.

[Anonapersona]

2 hours ago, jmothecat said:

The unionist tactical voting thing boggles my mind a little bit. I don't like the SNP but I'm struggling to understand how any Labour voter could see a Tory MP as better than an SNP one, particularly with the hardline traditional Tory politics Theresa May is representative of. Unless the issue of independence is pretty much the be all and end all of your politics, which I think is a lot less likely in no voters than yes voters but that's purely anecdotal and could be total rubbish, then why would you vote for there to be another Tory MP?

I see the Tories have come out to say that Labour and Lib Dem voters should vote Conservative tactically to stop the SNP. I live in an SNP/Labour marginal (not that I expect it to be anything other than an SNP victory), if I get any Tory doorknockers during this campaign I'm going to ask them if they are planning on voting Labour to stop the SNP.

Maybe it's time to accept that your Labour vote is not helpful. Maybe one day Labour will be a force but... ummmm... now is not the time.

[strichener]

1 hour ago, Londonwell said:

The point is the SNP will do their job as an opposition party and y'know actually oppose things.

Its a novel political tactic that Labour may pick up one day. 

You are going to have to explain to me how voting for the SNP will "stop a Tory MP filing through the lobbies for Theresa Mays programme of government".

 

[Gordon EF]

2 hours ago, jmothecat said:

The unionist tactical voting thing boggles my mind a little bit. I don't like the SNP but I'm struggling to understand how any Labour voter could see a Tory MP as better than an SNP one, particularly with the hardline traditional Tory politics Theresa May is representative of. Unless the issue of independence is pretty much the be all and end all of your politics, which I think is a lot less likely in no voters than yes voters but that's purely anecdotal and could be total rubbish, then why would you vote for there to be another Tory MP?

I see the Tories have come out to say that Labour and Lib Dem voters should vote Conservative tactically to stop the SNP. I live in an SNP/Labour marginal (not that I expect it to be anything other than an SNP victory), if I get any Tory doorknockers during this campaign I'm going to ask them if they are planning on voting Labour to stop the SNP.

I think you need to re-assess the bit in bold.

I'm sure there are a significant number of unionists for whom the union is the most important / only issue they'll vote on.

A = Traditional Labour voters are willing to vote tactically for the Tories to keep out the SNP.
B = Someone who does this must value the union above all else.

If A is true and for A to be true, B must be true, then B is true.