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June 8th General Election


Mudder

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44 minutes ago, mjw said:

Is there anyone (apart from those that sleep under a union jack duvet) who give a f**k about Corbyn not condemning the IRA?

It's a shame that, living where I do, I'm unlikely to get a knock on the door from the local Tory candidate. As I would quite like the opportunity to tell them that their (Scottish) leader's attempts to appeal to the worst elements of Scottish society has lost them any chance of getting my vote.

Not that I'd be voting for them in the first place, but they wouldn't know that.

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It's a shame that, living where I do, I'm unlikely to get a knock on the door from the local Tory candidate. As I would quite like the opportunity to tell them that their (Scottish) leader's attempts to appeal to the worst elements of Scottish society has lost them any chance of getting my vote. Not that I'd be voting for them in the first place, but they wouldn't know that.

 

Watched her performance at her party's manifesto launch (they could have saved money and squeezed it into a single A4 sheet). She's completely away with herself. Utterly deluded by the squinty results in the Cooncil. Torypeak.

 

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The Tory policies of

Ending free primary school meals
Care fees to be paid from selling houses
Bring back fox hunting
Bring back ivory trade
Raise taxes........

It's almost is if they announcing new things every day in an effort to lose so that Corbyn and Labour have to deal with BREXIT.

And this country such a clusterfuck it ain't working

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7 hours ago, mjw said:

Is there anyone (apart from those that sleep under a union jack duvet) who give a f**k about Corbyn not condemning the IRA?

Combine that with the way he has also cosied up to Hamas and it's a red flag for a lot of people that don't fit a William Ulsterman stereotype. If the gap in the opinion polls narrows sufficiently that there is a chance of him actually winning (and Theresa May seems to be doing her best to facilitate that possibility with her policies where pensioners are concerned), that will become one of the main talking points again along with his views on Trident.

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Combine that with the way he has also cosied up to Hamas and it's a red flag for a lot of people that don't fit a William Ulsterman stereotype. If the gap in the opinion polls narrows sufficiently that there is a chance of him actually winning (and Theresa May seems to be doing her best to facilitate that possibility with her policies where pensioners are concerned), that will become one of the main talking points again along with his views on Trident.

He got grilled on it on SKY this morning and Andrew Neil went after a labour man on his show,coincidence?

Meanwhile actually being in the IRA won't stop you being a Tory councillor.


Maria Gatland is a Tory councillor in Croydon, South London. But in a previouslife she was known as Maria McGuire; a member of the Provisional IRA and lover of one of it’s top dogs David O’Connell. She detailed her life in the group in a book called To Take Arms: My Year With The IRA Provisionals. And she pulled no punches in describing just what she was involved in.
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Senior labour sources saying that May is 'home and dry' and the labour candidate in Blair's old constituency says he doesn't support his party's leadership.

Are they actually purposely throwing this election now that Corbyn may have a squeak of a chance? :rolleyes:

 

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I'm sceptical regarding the extent of recent movements in the opinion polls. It is possible, under FPTP, that any increase to Labour's overall vote share is essentially being built up in areas where they are - or should be - fairly safe.

It is reminiscent of 2015, to an extent: Labour growing in the opinion polls during the election campaign, but the reality on the ground not quite matching up. A spike in the polls for Labour might even be a good thing for the Tories. If it reignites the possibility of Labour winning - or Corbyn becoming PM - in the minds of a section of the electorate who are opposed to such a prospect but might not have bothered to vote if they had assumed that the result was a foregone conclusion, it is a useful tool to maximise the 'soft Tory' turnout. 

This isn't to say that Labour aren't having a fairly decent campaign, mind - I think they are doing the fundamentals pretty well. I could be wrong, but I just suspect that people are reading too much into these shifts. It also helps the media to build them up slightly, just so it allows for some sort of competition narrative. I still think it will be a case of Labour just hoping and trying to minimise their losses. 

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I'm sceptical regarding the extent of recent movements in the opinion polls. It is possible, under FPTP, that any increase to Labour's overall vote share is essentially being built up in areas where they are - or should be - fairly safe.

 

Works both ways that one, another few thousand more votes in Chipping Norton does nothing for May overall. We all know it comes down to the "key marginals". Have we had polling in a selection of these seats yet? We usually get a few in the run up to a GE.

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1 minute ago, Enigma said:

 

Works both ways that one, another few thousand more votes in Chipping Norton does nothing for May overall. We all know it comes down to the "key marginals". Have we had polling in a selection of these seats yet? We usually get a few in the run up to a GE.

It can work both ways, but the base Labour is starting from renders it more important for them to ensure that they are not merely increasing their vote shares in 'safe' constituencies if they are to be remotely competitive. I haven't seen anything specifically on individual marginals yet, but YouGov did publish some sort of regional breakdown of voting intentions the other week.

I do also wonder whether some wavering voters might be more relaxed about backing Labour if they are sure that the Tories will win overall, as strange as that sounds. A voter who isn't particularly keen on the prospect of Corbyn becoming Prime Minister, for example, but also isn't delighted about having a local MP who is essentially a nodding dog on the Tory backbenches. If Labour's rating in the opinion polls is going up, it will be interesting to see if this group sticks with Labour in June or goes with the Tories. That could be a key group in the marginals deciding the size of May's victory. 

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