Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Michael W]

The Tories have gone very quiet recently, pretty much since that social care policy was announced, in fact. It seems to have absolutely sunk them and they've gone into hiding, albeit with their polling seemingly holding up even if Labour gaining. 

Their activists were apparently fuming about the policy and it shows - they've totally lost their confidence. Shows what poor thinking can cause; even an unpopular opposition leader can be excused if your policies are wrong. They've thought now was the time to push through unpopular policies and it has backfired. 

[Fide]

6 hours ago, kevthedee said:

Polls are w**k

I'm not in the habit of agreeing with Kev, but in this case you're bang on.

Has 2015 taught us nada?  Polls are in no way to be trusted.  The Tories, sadly, will still romp this.

Throughout every election in the past 40 years, the oppostion has had a bounce in the polls roughly two weeks before election day.  This is due to the public cooing over their brave manifesto and disillusionment over the ruling party.  However, come election day, in most cases, the electorate revert to the idiotic bams that they are, which, in this case, is a vote for our upper class, sociopathic Tory overlords.

[McSpreader]

2 hours ago, Fide said:

I'm not in the habit of agreeing with Kev, but in this case you're bang on.

Has 2015 taught us nada?  Polls are in no way to be trusted.  The Tories, sadly, will still romp this.

Throughout every election in the past 40 years, the oppostion has had a bounce in the polls roughly two weeks before election day.  This is due to the public cooing over their brave manifesto and disillusionment over the ruling party.  However, come election day, in most cases, the electorate revert to the idiotic bams that they are, which, in this case, is a vote for our upper class, sociopathic Tory overlords.

Which says everything you need to know about the shambolic alternative choices to be had.

[McSpreader]

7 hours ago, kilbowie2002 said:

Is that a mcspreader quote?

Are you not impressed that I didn't bite  ?

[Fide]

25 minutes ago, McSpreader said:

Which says everything you need to know about the shambolic alternative choices to be had.

No.  No it doesn't.  What it does tell you is how monumentally stupid large swathes of the population are.

[vikingTON]

Hung Parliament or even reduced Tory majority would be scenes.

A hung parliament is the best possible scenario. Plenty of opportunities for King Alex to effortlessly troll the chamber and KB whatever shan 'deal' either May or the Munbleclown gets handed to them.

[Alan Stubbs]

I will love, I will loooove it if this election backfires on the Tories

Not going to happen though, unfortunately.

[HibsFan]

7 hours ago, Alan Stubbs said:

I will love, I will loooove it if this election backfires on the Tories

Not going to happen though, unfortunately.

Them not winning by the 100+ seats they were expecting to win by is backfire enough to be honest.

[ayrmad]

38 minutes ago, HibsFan said:

Them not winning by the 100+ seats they were expecting to win by is backfire enough to be honest.

It's only a few weeks ago that 170 was maybe out of reach and 130 was more probable amongst commentators, 40 or 50 will be a disaster for May that her,her party and the Tory chums in the MSM will all pass off as job done..

[paolo2143]

What worries me is that  a few SNP voters who used to vote Labour may return to the fold and help give Ruthie and her Tory chums more seats up here than people think

[vikingTON]

There is no sign of a Labour recovery in Scotland so far. And there almost certainly won't be, given that Kezia has gone all in with their raging Britnat stance. Conceding the entire 45% to The Only Show In Town; while three Britnat parties try to out-Yoon each other over a slightly larger sum of voters.

You don't need to be John Curtice to work out that spells crushing hegemony for The Only Show in Town.

[git-intae-thum]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

There is no sign of a Labour recovery in Scotland so far. And there almost certainly won't be, given that Kezia has gone all in with their raging Britnat stance. Conceding the entire 45% to The Only Show In Town; while three Britnat parties try to out-Yoon each other over a slightly larger sum of voters.

You don't need to be John Curtice to work out that spells crushing hegemony for The Only Show in Town.


 

Exactly.

Braw for the snp.

But....small steps.

Still to convince the wider potential yes vote (ie about 75% of Scotlands population) of the benfits of independence.

 Cave and spiders come tae mind 

[renton]

A modest Labour revival in Scotland might be a good thing. While I don't expect the SNP to lose votes to them, on the unionist side there are a few borrowed Labour votes currently backing the Tories. The Tories dropping a couple of points to Labour makes it much harder for either to gain at the SNP expense. A more competitive Labour party at UK level means mire splits in the Unionist camp here.

[Crùbag]

Tory surge more of a flop.

 

Quote

Poll suggests Tory support falling in Scotland too as Labour close the gap in England and overturn a Tory lead in Wales. The SNP pull away again and even In Scotland too, Labour close the gap.

 

https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/05/27/poll-suggests-tory-support-falling-in-scotland-too-as-labour-close-the-gap-in-england-and-overturn-a-tory-lead-in-wales-the-snp-pull-away-again-and-even-in-scotland-too-labour-close-the-gap/

[LongTimeLurker]

4 hours ago, renton said:

While I don't expect the SNP to lose votes to them, on the unionist side there are a few borrowed Labour votes currently backing the Tories. The Tories dropping a couple of points to Labour makes it much harder for either to gain at the SNP expense. A more competitive Labour party at UK level means mire splits in the Unionist camp here.

That pretty much sums up the state of play. That would leave only the likes of the Borders seat, East Lothian, Edinburgh West and Dunbartonshire East as probable SNP losses due to scope for a lot of pro-Union tactical voting and a relatively weak base of SNP support. The other angle is that if Labour gets to be competitive south of the border as is starting to be the case Labour voters have to seriously consider the possibility that the SNP beating the Tories in their constituency can help get rid of Theresa May in a hung parliament. It's much easier to make a statement where the Union is concerned when it is likely to have no effect whatsoever on the overall outcome.

[Sooky]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 46% (-2)
LAB: 34% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-2)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)

(via @ComRes / 24 - 26 May)


Think Tories will be somewhat relieved at this. Gap has still closed, but even in these polls the Tories are still mid-40s and as the minor parties fall back, the margin you're winning by nationally is less important. Plus, incumbent governments generally get a boost in the days leading up to the election.

[Shades75]

17 minutes ago, Sooky said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 46% (-2)
LAB: 34% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-2)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)

(via @ComRes / 24 - 26 May)


Think Tories will be somewhat relieved at this. Gap has still closed, but even in these polls the Tories are still mid-40s and as the minor parties fall back, the margin you're winning by nationally is less important. Plus, incumbent governments generally get a boost in the days leading up to the election.

By "these polls" you mean "this poll"?

The others show a considerable drop.

If voters in Scotland take note, and vote accordingly then some unionists will migrate back to Labour and that will mean less seats for the Tories.  We might see some tactical voting for the SNP to keep the Tories out by Labour voters if they think that the numbers of Tory MPs in Scotland look like becoming important.

This will probably still be a win for the Tories, but what will contribute to that, hugely, is how much they can avoid being on TV, how little scrutiny they are put under and how much their attack dogs in the right wing media can engineer compliance.

The more influential social media can become and the more the negative aspects of the Tory campaign can be spread will, hopefully, make a difference.

The question Theresa May has asked has been to choose between her and Jeremy Corbyn and that hasn't worked at all well.  She comes across as wholly disingenuous, aloof and disconnected.  That's really because she is IMO.

Now there is some momentum on the Labour side I hope that some of the resigned and apathetic voters in England take note.

 

Edited May 27, 2017 by Shades75

[Cheese]

There's an Opinium Scottish subsample showing SNP 46% Labour 26% Tories 22%.

I have no idea of the numbers involved in the sample.

[The_Kincardine]

Just now, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

There's an Opinium Scottish subsample showing SNP 46% Labour 26% Tories 22%.

I have no idea of the numbers involved in the sample.

Opium sub-sample more like.

[Crùbag]

Swathe of polls out tonight. High point for Labour is 38%. Average lead for Tory is just under 9% apparently.