Shades75 Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, Sooky said: YouGov have just plucked a very random set of seat predictions out. National polling would surely have to see Labour at least even for this to occur? And their most favourable poll of the campaign has them 5% behind. I'd be very keen to know which 30 seats they see Labour gaining, so hopefully they publish a bit more in depth. But nice to know that Northern Ireland are getting the 10 seats back that they mysteriously lost last parliament... Seems like complete bullshit to get the Tory vote out. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 If the Tories lost 20 seats and the SNP came away with 50, I would laugh my cock off. Pretty sceptical about both scenarios though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 (edited) 51 minutes ago, Sooky said: YouGov have just plucked a very random set of seat predictions out. National polling would surely have to see Labour at least even for this to occur? And their most favourable poll of the campaign has them 5% behind. I'd be very keen to know which 30 seats they see Labour gaining, so hopefully they publish a bit more in depth. But nice to know that Northern Ireland are getting the 10 seats back that they mysteriously lost last parliament... As far as i'm aware Labour currently have a wee bit of a built in electoral advantage in terms if their urban base vs the Tory rural seats: It takes less votes to elect a Labour MP than it does a Tory one. Hence the Tories have to generally be a bit ahead just to be level. One reason they are so insistent on changing the seat boundaries up. Edited May 30, 2017 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearbuyerbell Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 I found this interesting. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rK4VM-kkQDT5YtmWGn8dkZH96nAXZUeFWs8u2KeadyM/edit#gid=0 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizfit Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 If the Tories lost 20 seats and the SNP came away with 50, I would laugh my cock off. Pretty sceptical about both scenarios though. I wouldn't be laughing if I lost my SNP MP for a Tory one though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearbuyerbell Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 42 minutes ago, Alan Stubbs said: If the Tories lost 20 seats and the SNP came away with 50, I would laugh my cock off. Pretty sceptical about both scenarios though. So you should be. You'd be cockless and 16 inches down 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrewDon Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 If that YouGov poll is underestimating the Tory lead, and I strongly suspect that it is, then that just helps the Tories to create a narrative that the election is closer than it is - helping them to drive out their 'soft' electorate. ComRes seemingly still has the Tories on course for a 100+ seat majority. Polls are now driving the news (as they did to an extent in 2015), which isn't a particularly positive trend. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 If that YouGov poll is underestimating the Tory lead, and I strongly suspect that it is, then that just helps the Tories to create a narrative that the election is closer than it is - helping them to drive out their 'soft' electorate. ComRes seemingly still has the Tories on course for a 100+ seat majority. Polls are now driving the news (as they did to an extent in 2015), which isn't a particularly positive trend. One of the main factors seems to be based around youth turnout. Different polling firms are expecting far different percentages to vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 The margin of error on that Yougov poll is not far off 10%- massive. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 9 hours ago, Sooky said: YouGov have just plucked a very random set of seat predictions out. National polling would surely have to see Labour at least even for this to occur?.. The current set of boundaries favour Labour as urban seats tend to be smaller in population terms than rural ones. Theresa May decided to call a snap election rather than wait for the new boundaries to be implemented, so only has herself to blame on that. It looks like it all depends on whether the 18-34 cohort actually bother to vote in numbers comparable to the 65+ demographic. The difference between the polls at the moments is that the ones with the larger Tory lead like the latest ICM one assume they won't, while other companies are assuming that they will. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 (edited) Scottish poll klaxon!! https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390009-stv-election-poll-snp-to-hold-50-seats-amid-tory-gains/ SNP 43% (50 seats) Labour 25% (1 seat) Tories 25% (7 seats) Lib Dems 6% (1 seat) Edit: Indy ref preferences: Yes 47% No 53% Edited May 31, 2017 by Kyle 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Just now, Kyle said: Scottish poll klaxon!! https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390009-stv-election-poll-snp-to-hold-50-seats-amid-tory-gains/ SNP 43% (50 seats) Labour 25% (1 seat) Tories 25% (7 seats) Lib Dems 6% (1 seat) That Tory surge = 3% No doubt they'll try to paint it as a glorious triumph anyway. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogmc Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 There would be no real realistic workable majority from that (from either side), would there? What a mess that would be! Guess it lets the Tories go all "coalition of chaos" x100. Problem with a lab / snp coalition would surely be evel? ? It would have to be repealed or the tories would be able to outvote the govt on many issues plus how could you have cabinet ministers from non English constituencies? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 (edited) Labour doesn't need to rise much higher than that to starting taking seats. A well balanced pair of Unionist chasing parties in the low to mid 20s is the ideal scenario for the SNP in terms of having another landslide even in the absence of the tactical No voters that pushed their support up to 50% last time around. Edited May 31, 2017 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 13 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said: That Tory surge = 3% No doubt they'll try to paint it as a glorious triumph anyway. Quite an incredible poll really (I think the lib dems may only be on 5%). SNP vote has obviously dropped, the Tory vote has risen. If that's directly, than you have to imagine the SNP/Tory marginals in Perth, Angus, the Borders and the North East will be tight. The Lib Dems vote share is so low that their vote will have to be concentrated to win back any seats (I think they'll win Edinburgh West at the very least to be honest). Perhaps a lot of the unionist tactical voters switching to the Tories is moving back to labour now that they're being faced with actually putting an X in the Tory box. I didn't expect Labour to be anywhere near level with the Tories by this stage though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Labour doesn't need to rise much higher than that to starting taking seats. A well balanced set of Unionist chasing parties in the low to mid 20s is the ideal scenario for the SNP in terms of having another landslide even in the absence of tactical No voters. There's a few seats they might be able to take, but the SNP's biggest majorities are in labour held areas. The Lib Dems did a much better job of keeping their seats tight at the last elections. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Scottish poll klaxon!! https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390009-stv-election-poll-snp-to-hold-50-seats-amid-tory-gains/ SNP 43% (50 seats) Labour 25% (1 seat) Tories 25% (7 seats) Lib Dems 6% (1 seat) Edit: Indy ref preferences: Yes 47% No 53% I'd happily take that right now tbh. I've always thought 12+ seats has been a fantasy, and this has been a fucking disaster of a campaign. All credit to Labour, they've ran a very good election so far. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Labour actually ahead of the Tories in the voting intentions #ToryRevival 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Kyle said: Quite an incredible poll really (I think the lib dems may only be on 5%). SNP vote has obviously dropped, the Tory vote has risen. If that's directly, than you have to imagine the SNP/Tory marginals in Perth, Angus, the Borders and the North East will be tight. The Lib Dems vote share is so low that their vote will have to be concentrated to win back any seats (I think they'll win Edinburgh West at the very least to be honest). Perhaps a lot of the unionist tactical voters switching to the Tories is moving back to labour now that they're being faced with actually putting an X in the Tory box. I didn't expect Labour to be anywhere near level with the Tories by this stage though. Any idea what the Greens/Others were on - I still think that might push the SNP a point or two higher. Thing is, an 18 point lead is higher for the SNP than the last set of full Scottish polls showed, and 25% a fair bit lower for the Tories (albeit different methodologies and pollsters). Interesting to see the Indy question ebb and flow with the focus put on it. Sturgeon was going great guns in March with putting Indyref 2 on the table, lots of positive publicity, etc and now it's ebbed a bit as the SNP GE strategy has made a point of not focusing all it's energy there, that and the SNP's lower profile this time round as opposed to 2015. Edited May 31, 2017 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Just now, renton said: Any idea what the Greens/Others were on - I still think that might push the SNP a point or two higher. Thing is, an 18 point lead is higher for the SNP than the last set of full Scottish polls showed, and 25% a fair bit lower for the Tories. Interesting to see the Indy question ebb and flow with the focus put on it. Sturgeon was going great guns in March with putting Indyref 2 on the table, lots of positive publicity, etc and now it's ebbed a bit as the SNP GE strategy has made a point of not focusing all it's energy there, that and the SNP's lower profile this time round as opposed to 2015. Others are 2%. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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