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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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Looks like some polling companies are looking for a headline. Or it could be a ploy that some pollsters will get it right and some will get it wrong, rather than all of them getting it wrong again

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I'm struggling to believe that labour are 10% behind the Tories after the last couple of weeks. SNP have been at 43% in pretty much every poll, except for that survey monkey one which looks like an outlier. 

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which leads to SNP 47 Cons 8 LibDems 3 and Labour 1 according to the ScotlandVotes seat calculator.

Edit: 43:28 for SNP and Cons seems to be a bit of a tipping point. If it's 44:27 instead the Tories don't win East Renfrewshire (which I suspect they may not anyway if Unionist voters have latched onto Labour instead as the tactical voting vehicle), Moray, Perthshire North and Aberdeen South.

Edited by LongTimeLurker
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Just now, Kyle said:

Snp 43%

Tories 28% 

Labour 18% 

Lib Dems 9%

Others 2%. 

2% more to the SNP and 2% less for Tories would be so vital on the day. Might get the SNP over 50 and Tories down to 4/5.

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According to what I'm reading on Twitter, the Scottish sub-sample of Survation's UK poll - which has the Tories only a solitary point ahead of Labour - has Scottish Labour well ahead of the Tories. It also suggests that 19 million voters watched all or some of the Question Time debate live. 72% said they heard about it, which is unbelievably high. If so, I think that is enough to call their numbers into serious doubt. 

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The Busted Flushes simply aren't getting 9% of the vote in Scotland, higher than their share in two-party England - that's a margin of error caveat right there. They could slither three seats if clever tactical voting by the Unionists takes place but I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up with just Carmichael again.

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