Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Sooky]

Scottish Westminster voting intention:

 

SNP: 40% (-3)

CON: 27% (-1)

LAB: 25% (+7)

LDEM: 6% (-3)

 

(via @Survation / 31 May - 02 Jun)

 

Labour taking votes from SNP/LDs mostly, it seems.

 

I don't think Tories would be too annoyed by this as Labour surge probably more likely in the central belt and not the seats they're trying to win off SNP. Especially as the SNP vote has declined further than the Tories.

[John Lambies Doos]

Split the unionist vote. Only show romp in.
Lovely

[LongTimeLurker]

The SNP need a couple more percentage points for that scenario to happen. The SNP could get anywhere from the high 30s to low 50s within the error margins on that poll.

[renton]

2 hours ago, Sooky said:

Scottish Westminster voting intention:

 

SNP: 40% (-3)

CON: 27% (-1)

LAB: 25% (+7)

LDEM: 6% (-3)

 

(via @Survation / 31 May - 02 Jun)

 

Labour taking votes from SNP/LDs mostly, it seems.

 

I don't think Tories would be too annoyed by this as Labour surge probably more likely in the central belt and not the seats they're trying to win off SNP. Especially as the SNP vote has declined further than the Tories.

Panelbase have a slightly different story:

SNP: 42 (-2)

Tories: 30 (-3)

Labour:20 (+7)

[LongTimeLurker]

The Scotland Votes calculator predicts SNP 45, Tories 11, LibDems 2, Lab 1 on those numbers.

Edited June 4, 2017 by LongTimeLurker

[John Lambies Doos]

Snp will get 50+

[1320Lichtie]

Snp will get 50+

Doubtful

Said it but people in SNP going back to the must vote for one or the other due to them liking Corbyn.

It's going to be brutal seeing Scottish Labour do well here.

[jakedee]

I just can't get my head around almost 1 in 3 Scots voting for the Conservatives

[git-intae-thum]

11 minutes ago, jakedee said:

I just can't get my head around almost 1 in 3 Scots voting for the Conservatives

I find that strange as well. I suppose we will soon see of the polls are accurate.

[1320Lichtie]

I just can't get my head around almost 1 in 3 Scots voting for the Conservatives

The Scottish Conservatives and UNIONISTS...

You've now got the Tories plus the diehard unionists plus ****.

[Londonwell]

22 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said:

 

Doubtful

Said it but people in SNP going back to the must vote for one or the other due to them liking Corbyn.

It's going to be brutal seeing Scottish Labour do well here.

 

I've seen you say this a few times about Slab now. What do you consider as them 'doing well'? 

They won't get more than a couple of seats up here. 

[Spain]

I suspect you'll have a few staunch unionists who claim they'll vote Tory to stop the SNP but may think twice when they're staring that ballot form in the face and go Lib Dem or Labour instead.

[DI Bruce Robertson]

I suspect you'll have a few staunch unionists who claim they'll vote Tory to stop the SNP but may think twice when they're staring that ballot form in the face and go Lib Dem or Labour instead.

I doubt this, a unionist is a unionist, first & foremost.
They'd rather kick the Tories in the ballsack in 5 years time than have the opportunity to change things within Scotland when independence arrives.
Basically, they don't trust themselves, Scotland as a nation, or Scottish Parliamentarians to run a rich small country.
And they are c***s to a man.

[Monkey Tennis]

I think there's a failure among some on this thread to recognise what's motivated lots of SNP and YES votes in recent years.

Clearly, a lot of people have only recently started voting in these ways and that's a reflection of such votes offering a way out of a right leaning UK, with a strong Tory party and until more recently, a Blairite opposition.

If there was a chance of a more leftie Corbyn inspired UK, the need/desire for independence from it would be diminished for a lot of SNP voters.

Lots of such people were never seduced by the flag waving anyway and might vote Labour if that part sounded more like it might represent their wishes or interests.  

As we know, groupings are not clear cut, but despite the mealy mouthed Scottish Labour party, Corbyn does have the potential to dent the SNP.  It's a pity he doesn't have the potential to form a government though.

[sparky88]

12 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

I think there's a failure among some on this thread to recognise what's motivated lots of SNP and YES votes in recent years.

Clearly, a lot of people have only recently started voting in these ways and that's a reflection of such votes offering a way out of a right leaning UK, with a strong Tory party and until more recently, a Blairite opposition.

If there was a chance of a more leftie Corbyn inspired UK, the need/desire for independence from it would be diminished for a lot of SNP voters.

Lots of such people were never seduced by the flag waving anyway and might vote Labour if that part sounded more like it might represent their wishes or interests.  

As we know, groupings are not clear cut, but despite the mealy mouthed Scottish Labour party, Corbyn does have the potential to dent the SNP.  It's a pity he doesn't have the potential to form a government though.

Good post, a successful corbyn led labour party is far more dangerous to the SNPs support than the Tories are (in fact the Tories are vital to the SNP and a possible yes in the next referendum)

[LongTimeLurker]

11 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

...As we know, groupings are not clear cut, but despite the mealy mouthed Scottish Labour party, Corbyn does have the potential to dent the SNP.  It's a pity he doesn't have the potential to form a government though.

Add to that the way that Nicola Sturgeon's plan for Indyref2 on a pro-Remain basis is likely to have alienated some pro-Brexit voters and the soon to lumber over the horizon prospect of EU entry for Scotland post-independence meaning a hard border at Carlisle and Berwick with the RoI-NI border providing an easily visible precedent on Scotland's doorstep and "peak-SNP" may well be behind us rather than ahead of us at least for another decade or two until today's OAP generation has exited the scene.

[Mastermind]

I doubt this, a unionist is a unionist, first & foremost.
They'd rather kick the Tories in the ballsack in 5 years time than have the opportunity to change things within Scotland when independence arrives.
Basically, they don't trust themselves, Scotland as a nation, or Scottish Parliamentarians to run a rich small country.
And they are c***s to a man.

Still seething nearly three years on. What a mess.

[Ira Gaines]

3 minutes ago, Mastermind said:

 

Still seething nearly three years on. What a mess.

Still mintering your entire life. What a mess.

[Monkey Tennis]

5 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Add to that the way that Nicola Sturgeon's plan for Indyref2 on a pro-Remain basis is likely to have alienated some pro-Brexit voters and the soon to lumber over the horizon prospect of EU entry for Scotland post-independence meaning a hard border at Carlisle and Berwick with the RoI-NI border providing an easily visible precedent on Scotland's doorstep and "peak-SNP" may well be behind us rather than ahead of us at least for another decade or two until today's OAP generation has exited the scene.

Yes, all true. 

The number of YES voters who also voted 'Leave' muddies it all a bit.

I hope the SNP do well this week because without that we're pretty much stuck with the Tories for the foreseeable.  

I can understand Scots wanting to vote Labour though. I'd maybe do it myself if I lived in another part of Scotland.

[DrewDon]

I have definitely noticed more enthusiasm amongst younger SNP 2015 and pro-independence voters for Labour - or, more specifically, Corbyn - over the past couple of weeks. How much of this translates into votes for Labour rather than the SNP in Scotland is another matter, but I do know some who plan on doing so and have a lingering concern that even a relatively small movement could allow the Tories to sneak into some Scottish seats on Thursday where they might otherwise have been squeezed out. Sadly, I don't think Labour growing in Scotland, as suggested by today's Survation poll, is as simple as the Unionist vote becoming more split.