DrewDon Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Those Survation numbers for Scotland, according to Electoral Calculus, would give a result of: SNP 43, Tories 10, Labour 5, Lib Dems 1. Survation does appear to be out of line with pretty much every other major polling company, though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Prefer this tbh. Worth noting, this is Labours official polling company that they use for internals. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-MAN Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Those Survation numbers for Scotland, according to Electoral Calculus, would give a result of: SNP 43, Tories 10, Labour 5, Lib Dems 1. Survation does appear to be out of line with pretty much every other major polling company, though. Looking at the constituencies I cannot see where SNP will not win 16 seats. 48 minimum. (Fingers crossed) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, ayrmad said: How can anyone possibly dismiss any regular pollster as an outlier after the last few years. Ermm because they are literally an outlier. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrewDon Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, G-MAN said: Looking at the constituencies I cannot see where SNP will not win 16 seats. 48 minimum. (Fingers crossed) I combed through them individually the other day (not the sign of a life well lived, by the way), and I just about found a viable route to the SNP falling to c. 40 seats. It would, however, require a very disciplined Unionist tactical voting operation and younger SNP 2015/2016 voters transferring to Labour in enough numbers for the Tories to sneak ahead and win a few more seats than they might otherwise have done. I think the SNP will win somewhere between 42 and 46 seats, primarily depending on the aforementioned factors and how strong the respective GOTV operations are in the marginals. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedford White Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Yougov herding- changing methodology in last poll. Qriously who are not on polling panel but got Brexit right give Labour 3% lead. Start the car Jeremy we are off to Buck House. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Just now, invergowrie arab said: Ermm because they are literally an outlier. That's not what you said though, being an outlier doesn't mean it can't be the accurate one, your statement will be no more correct on Friday than it is now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Average of about 8% to the torys in the final polls 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry94 Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 1 hour ago, doulikefish said: Average of about 8% to the torys in the final polls Ipsos Mori due at 11.30am according to twitter so that may change things slightly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Survation poll results SNP - 39%Lab - 29%Con - 26%Under this model the SNP lose the following seats 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 1 minute ago, ICTChris said: Survation poll results SNP - 39% Lab - 29% Con - 26% Under this model the SNP lose the following seats 42 to 46 seats seems to be the normal range going on these polls and a universal swing type model. That Survation one is a bit of an outlier as well. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizfit Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Was trying to figure out what would happen if May wasn't reflected and the Tories won a majority. However she has a 20'000 majority so no chance of that happening. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Was trying to figure out what would happen if May wasn't reflected and the Tories won a majority. However she has a 20'000 majority so no chance of that happening. Dream scenario is Lord Buckethead beating May and Mr Fish Finger beating Farron. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Just ICM and Ipsos guys having a gentle mock of the Survation chief exec... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepundit Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 3 hours ago, ICTChris said: Survation poll results SNP - 39% Lab - 29% Con - 26% The poll also asked the question on independence with support for No at 61% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearbuyerbell Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, thepundit said: The poll also asked the question on independence with support for No at 61% ...thanks for confirming it's an outlier. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Electoral calculus predictions 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedford White Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Tory majority lengthened on Hills. Was 1/7 this morning - now 1/4. Are they hearing evidence of higher than normal turnout or is it covering of money? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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