Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Boo Khaki]

Fair play to the SFA for being able to gaslight people into getting '55' tattooed on their bodies after their club won it's first ever major trophy. 

That's an act of wool-pulling that even the Tory government would be proud of.

[dirty dingus]

5 hours ago, Boo Khaki said:

Fair play to the SFA for being able to gaslight people into getting '55' tattooed on their bodies after their club won it's first ever major trophy. 

That's an act of wool-pulling that even the Tory government would be proud of.

With the blue bigots lording it over Celtic and the 10 in a row in tatters will they actively push the new club agenda or is there too much money to be made in continuing the sectarian rivalry? I seen they have started by trying to dissown the other cheek of the Old Firm brand because of their fans performance last week.

[Baxter Parp]

Labour down 10% in Livingston. That can't be good.

[Granny Danger]

12 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

Labour down 10% in Livingston. That can't be good.

Two observations.

UKIP is still a thing?  After Brexit?  At local council elections?

SNP elected at stage 7 shows the mindset of unionists.

[John Lambies Doos]

Labour down 10% in Livingston. That can't be good.

Who was the independent candidate. Completely appreciate local guys and council local electron but interesting to see his independence stance (if known)

[John Lambies Doos]

Two observations.
UKIP is still a thing?  After Brexit?  At local council elections?
SNP elected at stage 7 shows the mindset of unionists.

Absolutely, Union at all costs

[tamthebam]

11 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

12 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

Labour down 10% in Livingston. That can't be good.

Who was the independent candidate. Completely appreciate local guys and council local electron but interesting to see his independence stance (if known)

Eddie Millar. Was once in the SNP, disagreed with their policies "too much focus on independence" for him (!) and he was a Brexiteer. Stood for the Tories and now he's an independent might tell you something...  

[Highland Capital]

On 11/03/2021 at 21:12, cdisaaccie said:

Stands for "Action For Independence"

Tommy Sheridan is involved, along with the remnants of his Solidarity party & a few Ex-SNP Twitter folk with ideas above their station in terms of their own importance.

Could be wrong but think the SSP have thrown their lot in with AFI this time as don't think they are standing at all.

So you have AFI, ISP, Scotia Future & the Scottish Libertarian Party on the fringe pro-indy side standing.

Then on the fringe unionist side you have UKIP, Reform UK & George Galloway's 'Alliance For Unity' mob standing.

Would reckon 1-2% of the list vote between all of them at very best.

I see former Labour MEP Hugh Kerr has resigned from the SNP to stand for Action for Independence.  He's running on their list in Lothian.  I see the bonkers Craig Murray is also one of their candidates.

Edited March 13, 2021 by Highland Capital

[Highland Capital]

I see the Conservatives have put three descriptions to the Electoral Commission.  Two are anti-indyref2 and the other is 'More police, safer streets'.  I can only imagine that one will be scrapped after recent events.

The SNP have gone with 'Both Votes SNP', 'Nicola Sturgeon for SNP First Minister' and 'Vote SNP for Indyref2'.

[John Lambies Doos]

#VoteSNPforIndy2

[Ned Nederlander]

12 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

#VoteSNPforIndy2

#BothVotesSNPforIndyref2

[Boo Khaki]

1 hour ago, Highland Capital said:

I see the Conservatives have put three descriptions to the Electoral Commission.  Two are anti-indyref2 and the other is 'More police, safer streets'.  I can only imagine that one will be scrapped after recent events.

The SNP have gone with 'Both Votes SNP', 'Nicola Sturgeon for SNP First Minister' and 'Vote SNP for Indyref2'.

First sign of them 'shutting up about Indi Ref2' and 'getting on with the day job' in years.

Wait.... is this some sort of Ross-inspired implied gypsy crackdown?

[SandyCromarty]

9 hours ago, Ned Nederlander said:

#BothVotesSNPforIndyref2

I'll be doing the same though I do admire some of the Green's Policies, but being a party member my allegiance is to one flag.

[Granny Danger]

19 minutes ago, SandyCromarty said:

I'll be doing the same though I do admire some of the Green's Policies, but being a party member my allegiance is to one flag.

I’m a party member too but will give my second vote to the Greens if there’s a chance it means more pro Independence MSPs elected.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I’m a party member too but will give my second vote to the Greens if there’s a chance it means more pro Independence MSPs elected.

Someone did the analysis a while back for NE Scotland - is it worth using the list vote for the Greens?

Just concerned that we'll let a Tory in through the back door.

[Granny Danger]

49 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Someone did the analysis a while back for NE Scotland - is it worth using the list vote for the Greens?

Just concerned that we'll let a Tory in through the back door.

Im not sure if such an analysis has been done but will be looking for one prior to making a decision as I share your concern.

 

[Highland Capital]

3 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Someone did the analysis a while back for NE Scotland - is it worth using the list vote for the Greens?

Just concerned that we'll let a Tory in through the back door.

In the North East (if polling is correct), a list vote for the SNP could let a Tory in through the back door more than a Green vote.  I know the party will hammer 'both votes SNP' at every opportunity but unless you're in the Highlands or the South, a Green vote would hold a lot more weight.  Unless there's some major shock, the threshold for the SNP to win a list seat in the NE will probably be too high.

Edited March 14, 2021 by Highland Capital

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

39 minutes ago, Highland Capital said:

In the North East (if polling is correct), a list vote for the SNP could let a Tory in through the back door more than a Green vote.  I know the party will hammer 'both votes SNP' at every opportunity but unless you're in the Highlands or the South, a Green vote would hold a lot more weight.  Unless there's some major shock, the threshold for the SNP to win a list seat in the NE will probably be too high.

Absolutely. 

As I understand it, the only area of the country where it's worth voting 2X SNP is the south of Scotland. (I wasn't sure about the Highlands).

Anywhere else, a list vote for the SNP risks letting another Tory in.

[Highland Capital]

2 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

Absolutely. 

As I understand it, the only area of the country where it's worth voting 2X SNP is the south of Scotland. (I wasn't sure about the Highlands).

Anywhere else, a list vote for the SNP risks letting another Tory in.

Yep.  A Green vote still looks stronger in the Highlands (for the moment), but you can still vote SNP on the list with a degree of confidence.  Can't say that for anywhere else expect the south.

[Dunning1874]

20 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Someone did the analysis a while back for NE Scotland - is it worth using the list vote for the Greens?

Just concerned that we'll let a Tory in through the back door.

In 2016 the NE list seats went 4 Tory, 2 Labour & 1 Lib Dem with Tories taking the final seat. The Greens took 15123 list votes and would have needed another 2048 to take a seat ahead of the Tories. The SNP took 137,086 list votes and would have needed another 34000+ to take a seat. To put that into context that's needing more than the combined Lib Dem and Green vote or almost the entire Labour vote to swing SNP in addition to the existing 137K votes. Never going to happen, in other words.

In the unlikely event the SNP lost constituencies the picture could change drastically, but in 2016 the constituencies went nine SNP and one Tory; the SNP seats all had comfortable majorities while the one Tory seat was less than 1000. If anything's going to change it's most likely to be the SNP taking Aberdeenshire West back, which would put the SNP even further away from a list seat.

Edited March 15, 2021 by Dunning1874