Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[NotThePars]

15 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

51 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

I suppose the argument goes if you can have a Holyrood parliament where you have a pro-independence majority of parties beyond the SNP and their recycling wing then it might normalise a post-independence landscape and work to prevent a lot of the tension that comes with gaming the electoral system and winning with 51% in the next referendum. That's not why these people (coincidentally the most gung-ho UDI types) are intent on forming a new party, however, they're just having a tantrum.
 

You'll mebbe know: what are the odds of this kind of party budding off from Labour as opposed to SNP? Most of the quality analysis from Scottish Twitter (by this I mean like Flying Rodent, ACAB Rees Mogg etc not like Shafi types) is from Labour sympathetic folk who must be feeling a bit homeless at the moment.

I think you'll struggle to find anyone who hates the SNP more than Flying Rodent and presumably that includes any breakaways. Also doesn't he, or didn't he, post on here?

I'm in a few WhatsApps with some of the Labour sympathetic folk that are prominent online and I think they're committed to Scottish Labour out of spite and a grander vision of getting the labour and trade union movement to shift towards independence or at least supportive of another referendum. Again, I can't see them buying into this kind of party because what wider traction or ideology do they have outside of a grievance with the SNP? A space already occupied by the Baillie wing of Scottish Labour might I add.

Edited May 10, 2020 by NotThePars

[NotThePars]

3 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

What’s your thoughts on Shafi btw? I was at uni with him, hes a scary fellow.

In what way? I'm not pushing back I only know him from his tweets and vaguely seeing him at RIC events. Seems alright but I don't know really anything about him.

[NotThePars]

4 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Sorry I didn't mean they'd join these weirdos that have sprung up. I was more meaning would they get fed up with Baillie etc and form a left leaning pro indy party to pressure the SNP.

Yeah Flying Rodent isn't a fan of the SNP but he's still very good reading.

Nah. I think they (we?) are aware of the limitations of time and resources and the Scottish Labour party are ripe for being taken over or steered at this point. The civil war in the party when they get hammered next year is going to be some viewing.

Aye he goes a bit far with the flag wavers stuff but I think his basic viewpoint is correct. The pushback he got for suggesting Scottish nationalists would rather wave flags every so often than actually think about what they want an independent Scotland to be like was funny.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

In what way? I'm not pushing back I only know him from his tweets and vaguely seeing him at RIC events. Seems alright but I don't know really anything about him.

No its fair dos to ask, i just remember from sociology he basically seemed to live in a fuzzy world where he could somehow overthrow capitalism nae bother and anyone who disagreed was some kind of tory. I dont mean hes an evil dude or anything like that just found him to be very very strange, incapable of seeing the shades of grey around anything, people were either his side or not, perhaps he’s mellowed in later life? That said if there was any kind of protest at Strathclyde you’d see him, whether it was for lesbian frog rights(which i support) or palestine(which i support) suppose just saw him as someone who was only happy when campaigning regardless of the campaign. Kinda got the impression that if we lived in a communist state he’d be a pro-capitalist protester.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

"BROTHERS AND SISTERS, THE REVOLUTION STARTS NOW"

*Shafi springs from the crowd like a greyhound from its trap, sprinting at the line of riot police, swinging a stick round his head. He has been running for quite a long time and is surprised that the clamour of his brethren is so quiet. He slows to a jog and looks behind him. Nobody is there. A rubber bullet hits him in the throat and he crumples into a heap.*

Love it

[NotThePars]

45 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

To get over the independence hump do you not reckon that will at some point involve a new party that isn't affiliated to English Labour?

I don't think we have the time, finances or resources tbh! Starmer's position is shite but given the way he framed the relationship between both parties prior to his win, he has to concede authority over the direction of the Scottish party to the Scottish members. It'll be interesting to see what Starmer does as the branch office jibes, while applicable in some cases, were miles off the mark in terms of policy setting under Corbyn. If he was the Stalinist centralist maniac everyone insisted he was you would never have had the Welsh Labour Party that exist now persisting under his tenure.

I actually think Leonard might have played a blinder in ceding authority over the list selections and election strategy to Baillie because a wipeout is coming and if she's in effective command, then that failure should fall on her and it's her wing that are the kamikaze unionists driving policy around independence atm despite there being a lot of acceptance (lukewarm or otherwise) that the current opposition to indyref2 is unsustainable, anti-democratic and contradictory. 

And regardless of anything, it's some laugh isn't it? 

 

Edited May 10, 2020 by NotThePars

[NotThePars]

13 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

@NotThePars well well

 

 

Legit that was the tweet that got me thinking about his Scottish indy views again. What's your take?

[NotThePars]

5 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

He takes a dim view of independence -> ???? -> better society, but can't see what incentive there is for left leaning people in Scotland to persevere with the UK. As a committed magical bellyfeeler I can appreciate this criticism, I just don't think it's realistic to get the (comprehensively) better society first then independence second in the UK within the next 30 years.

yea, I agree. I've went from being certain of the inevitability of a radical independent Scotland to a more pessimistic view. I think the fact we didn't win in 2014, the SNP's continued pivoting to the centre, and the UK's swing to the far right leads me to my own hot take that an independent Scotland will be the true heirs to Blair at least in the short term.

[NotThePars]

2 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

P. much. You're not going to win it without persuading people who work for Baillie Gifford that it's the least worst option. The real prize which no c**t seems to keep in their heads for any length of time is it's *astoundingly* easier to change politics in a country of 5 million than 65 million.

It's less about the raw numbers and more about the forces arrayed against any sort of leftward drift. Corbyn won a substantial portion of the electorate in 2017 and took a markedly more radical tone than anyone else managed outside of the specific 2014 Yes campaign but the scale of opposition levelled by the media, security apparatus, the armed forces, civil services, and members of the apparently socialist party was an eye-opener. I think the specific case of trying to take a path to socialism in a state that's had centuries to build up a buffer to a genuinely radical shift versus a nascent state where everything is up in the air is important and why I'll always vote for indy. That window of everything being up in the air is rapidly closing as the forces of capital have been working overtime since independence looked like a genuine possibility rather than a pipe-dream.

Apologies for going a bit Shafi/ SSP there so I'll leave you with this: whatever happens it's some laugh, isn't it?

[welshbairn]

3 hours ago, NotThePars said:

It's less about the raw numbers and more about the forces arrayed against any sort of leftward drift. Corbyn won a substantial portion of the electorate in 2017 and took a markedly more radical tone than anyone else managed outside of the specific 2014 Yes campaign but the scale of opposition levelled by the media, security apparatus, the armed forces, civil services, and members of the apparently socialist party was an eye-opener. I think the specific case of trying to take a path to socialism in a state that's had centuries to build up a buffer to a genuinely radical shift versus a nascent state where everything is up in the air is important and why I'll always vote for indy. That window of everything being up in the air is rapidly closing as the forces of capital have been working overtime since independence looked like a genuine possibility rather than a pipe-dream.

Apologies for going a bit Shafi/ SSP there so I'll leave you with this: whatever happens it's some laugh, isn't it?

I think his own party working against Corbyn was more influential than all the dark forces of the State, especially after seeing bits of that leaked internal dossier. I'm also thinking of all the MP's who refused to say whether they supported him when interviewed.

Edited May 11, 2020 by welshbairn

[BawWatchin]

Never forget who the right sided with when they and their pals at the media were telling us all how antisemitic Corbyn is. They were literally siding with people who you could easily be forgiven for thinking are ISIS.

[NotThePars]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I think his own party working against Corbyn was more influential than all the dark forces of the State, especially after seeing bits of that leaked internal dossier. I'm also thinking of all the MP's who refused to say whether they supported him when interviewed.

You could argue all day about what did the most damage and I do think those working against him within the party ought to be yeeted out the party or preferably into the sun but it's a moot point now. They've destroyed their own party to rule the ashes, f**k them.

[BawWatchin]

29 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

You could argue all day about what did the most damage and I do think those working against him within the party ought to be yeeted out the party or preferably into the sun but it's a moot point now. They've destroyed their own party to rule the ashes, f**k them.

Labour was never their party though. It was always their intention to make Labour permanently un-electable. Tory moles the lot of them.

Edited May 11, 2020 by BawWatchin

[NotThePars]

48 minutes ago, BawWatchin said:

Labour was never their party though. It was always their intention to make Labour permanently un-electable. Tory moles the lot of them.

I think there's parallels with the Democrats across the pond. There's a substantial part of the party who'd rather control the wreckage than be bit part players of a popular insurgency.

ETA: They are the same people who bristle with horror at a) having a membership of over 500,000 people and b ) having their candidates be held directly accountable by that membership. Everyone that opposed mandatory reselection basically.

Edited May 11, 2020 by NotThePars

[Baxter Parp]

Independence here we come.

[Granny Danger]

4 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

Independence here we come.

I’m struggling to think what the 15% of people still voting Labour hope to achieve.

[Baxter Parp]

Just now, Granny Danger said:

I’m struggling to think what the 15% of people still voting Labour hope to achieve.

A socialist paradise.

[Granny Danger]

3 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

A socialist paradise.

Nothing wrong with that.  Far more chance of achieving it in an independent Scotland.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

I’m struggling to think what the 15% of people still voting Labour hope to achieve.

Still a very long way to go, lots can happen in a year. I agree 15% voting labour is an absolutely wasted vote. Im surprised that indy voters wouldn’t split a bit more to the greens in the list vote to increase the pro-indy lot given the electoral system at play?

[oneteaminglasgow]

33 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

Independence here we come.

Does it break down what the non-SNP constituency seats are?

I'm desperate for Edinburgh West to not vote in a Lib Dem, being represented by that smug c**t Cole-Hamilton is just the worst.