Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[John Lambies Doos]

 

Great example of how weightings can dramatically effect polls. Alba only on 2% here.

[NotThePars]

Polling for Yes should begin to substantially increase and solidify once a campaign begins again which is why it's stupid to be overly reliant on a poll lead in the first place. I don't really have much doubts that a competently run campaign will win but apart from having the means to trigger the campaign at an especially opportune time (like the darkest days of Covid or immediately after Brexit) these polls are going to shift up and down depending on what's going on in the news and shouldn't be the measure for justifying the beginning for a second push.

I kinda have a little bit of sympathy for the fundie wing as well because I think they are correct to be concerned about the long term approach because the longer we're tethered to the CDU the worse the conditions will be when we eventually gain independence. 

Edited April 29, 2021 by NotThePars

[tamthebam]

3 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Tonypandy was probably all forgotten about post-WW2 if you didn't have older relatives from mining villages basically, but Churchill was always hated in some parts of the UK.

He never got the freedom of towns in Fife because the mining communities remembered what he'd got up to in the General Strike.

It would be a nice idea post independence to put all the statues of folk like Dundas into a statue garden like they did with all those Lenin and Stalin statues in parts of Eastern Europe. What to replace them with though- I don't like the idea of anything kitsch like that awful Braveheart statue they had at the Wallace Monument. I believe there's a statue of Frank Zappa in Bosnia so how about statues of Alex Harvey,  Billy McKenzie, the Average White Band etc?

[GNU_Linux]

6 minutes ago, tamthebam said:

He never got the freedom of towns in Fife because the mining communities remembered what he'd got up to in the General Strike.

It would be a nice idea post independence to put all the statues of folk like Dundas into a statue garden like they did with all those Lenin and Stalin statues in parts of Eastern Europe. What to replace them with though- I don't like the idea of anything kitsch like that awful Braveheart statue they had at the Wallace Monument. I believe there's a statue of Frank Zappa in Bosnia so how about statues of Alex Harvey,  Billy McKenzie, the Average White Band etc?

Alexandra statue in Peterhead.

[tamthebam]

5 minutes ago, GNU_Linux said:

Alexandra statue in Peterhead.

I had to Google that and ended up finding a photo of the Alexandra Fountain in Dundee which looks like Charlie Drake molesting a salmon...

[Salt n Vinegar]

4 hours ago, ayrmad said:

Hopefully the folk trumpeting a consistent 60% for independence realise that that equates to 85 to 95% of those that are ever likely to vote Yes, fantasy land if you think such a high percentage of those available will support independence for any meaningful length of time. 

Taken for mugs and we're falling for it at every election. 

I wouldn't be surprised if Westminster tries the same pish as they did in the 1979 devolution referendum with the 40% rule. Anyone who didn't vote was effectively a "no" meaning that even the dead who were still on the electoral register counted as "no". Curiously, there was no such requirement for the Euro referendum, which was a far more significant proposal than delegation of powers within a state.  Another reason never to trust Westminster with constitutional issues for Scotland.  I trust them as far as I could throw a bus. 

[tamthebam]

2 minutes ago, andrew21 said:

How many towns in Fife offered him the freedom of their town?

As far as I know none.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Some of the polling organisations are going to end up with egg on their face come election day - the list vote seems to be all over the place plus the SNP constituency vote is at that level where a few points either way could be a real difference.

It also should be noted that those latest polls are before all the Johnson shenanigans - wonder if there will be an effect there?

[SandyCromarty]

1 hour ago, GordonS said:

Are you aware that political polls are a trivial part of the work of polling companies, and probably none of their profits at all?

And when ComRes showed a 10 point lead for Yes in December, did you accuse them of loading the sample then?

Polling companies use political polls as a marketing tool. If they're close to the result of an election it helps them get business. The idea that the few tens of thousands (at most) they get from the Daily Mail each year would cause them to put at risk the millions they get from the agencies working with Sky, Sainsbury's, Proctor & Gamble etc is just obviously mistaken. They're not going to deliberately get polls wrong and end up looking like idiots come election time, while their competitors are much closer to the result.

You should join the YouGov panel and see what sort of things make up the vast bulk of their work. What did you watch on TV, what do you think about these brands, when did you last see an advert for them, it's all that kind of stuff.

Accusations of bias at the main polling companies are just conspiracy theories. Systemic inaccuracies, that's another thing though...

I pay little attention to polls, this particular one caught my eye as with a week to go to the election I found it's result personally questionable.

As you say they are a money making business, and any business must be attractive to their paying customers such as the Daily Mail.

Do I believe they can be loaded, YES.

You appear to take them seriously and I truly wish you well with it.

I have no more to say on the matter.

 

[Baxter Parp]

10 hours ago, virginton said:

Oh dear, so now it's the pandemic's fault that the SG didn't push through a vote in the current Parliament. Yet five minutes ago, you were claiming that the lack of an SNP majority prevented  the SG from doing so since 2016.

I did no such thing. I'm not wasting my time arguing with someone who consistently and constantly lies about  my position.  Feel free to f**k off.

[Baxter Parp]

From a poll of 990 Grindr users.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Polls usually?always/ come with a margin of error which means the bit in bold is usually covered by that. 

I meant more the predictions over constituency seats.

[John Lambies Doos]

Ok

Thats my shtick

[GordonS]

4 hours ago, SandyCromarty said:

I pay little attention to polls, this particular one caught my eye as with a week to go to the election I found it's result personally questionable.

As you say they are a money making business, and any business must be attractive to their paying customers such as the Daily Mail.

Do I believe they can be loaded, YES.

You appear to take them seriously and I truly wish you well with it.

I have no more to say on the matter.

 

Ok. Polls can be loaded, but that doesn't mean that they are. BPC members don't do it with polls that will be published, because it would ruin their credibility. There just isn't any evidence that it happens and it's only ever claimed by people who don't like the numbers.

It's a shame you ignored what I said about the Daily Mail - they won't be paying more than a few tens of thousand a year on polling and they're not remotely important clients to a polling firm.

[Baxter Parp]

1 hour ago, GordonS said:

Ok. Polls can be loaded, but that doesn't mean that they are. BPC members don't do it with polls that will be published, because it would ruin their credibility.

Apart from when Scotland In Union want polls using Remain/Leave instead of Yes/No.

[wirez]

On 28/04/2021 at 19:27, Baxter Parp said:

You're welcome.

But they're not in the least bit random.

A reply to my post about you continually posting random bollocks from twitter. Some comeback there, you again posting some random bollocks from twitter.

kudos.

Didny see that coming.

[Baxter Parp]

22 minutes ago, wirez said:

A reply to my post about you continually posting random bollocks from twitter. Some comeback there, you again posting some random bollocks from twitter.

kudos.

Didny see that coming.

It's not random.  That's the point.

[wirez]

1 hour ago, Baxter Parp said:

It's not random.  That's the point.

But it is.

You zone in on twitter accounts that promote ALBA and then have a go at the SNP or Sturgeon.

That is not proof. That is you going looking for what confirms your raging bias.

What about the majority of ALBA supporters that are promoting an SNP1 ALBA2 message?

This bollocks that you stir up is really no better behaviour than unionists that constantly whined about "abusive cybernats", while their own side were even worse and got a free pass.

 

Edited April 30, 2021 by wirez

[Baxter Parp]

1 hour ago, wirez said:

That is you going looking for what confirms your raging bias.

I don't "go looking" for anything.  I don't have to. Alba are a stinking mess right across the internet.

[vikingTON]

10 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

I did no such thing. I'm not wasting my time arguing with someone who consistently and constantly lies about  my position.  Feel free to f**k off.

^^^ verge of tears