BFTD Posted June 6, 2017 Share Posted June 6, 2017 51 minutes ago, Sooky said: Anyway, I don't particularly buy it, but there's some Twitter gossip that Labour are concerned about Bolsover. Very large UKIP vote to squeeze and Dennis Skinner has apparently been fairly non-existent during the campaign. Could certainly see his majority being cut a fair bit, but not by enough for him to lose the seat. Surely the only reason Bolsover would kick out The Beast at this point would be out of kindness. He must be older than Granny Danger by now, which would surely explain a more subdued campaign. Still think he'll probably die from a stroke while offering out the speaker. Skinner, not GD. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dstuart82 Posted June 6, 2017 Share Posted June 6, 2017 59 minutes ago, Bring Your Own Socks said: The first two aren't seats in this election so they will definitely have a problem winning them. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine had a seven thousand majority for the SNP 2 years ago. And I was told by a farmer from Dumfriesshire last week that Mundell is haning by a thread. I'm struggling to find any level of evidence that the Tories will pick up seats. Happy to learn West Aberdeenshire is a strange one. Never realised the SNP majority was so large last time around. This will be the first time I've voted in this area having moved to Laurencekirk recently. Seen nothing but SNP posters/banners on display in the area, no Tory stuff at all. Yet the bookies (Bet365) have Torys @1/5 to win the seat, SNP are 7/2. Where are they getting this information from? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bring Your Own Socks Posted June 6, 2017 Share Posted June 6, 2017 West Aberdeenshire is a strange one. Never realised the SNP majority was so large last time around. This will be the first time I've voted in this area having moved to Laurencekirk recently. Seen nothing but SNP posters/banners on display in the area, no Tory stuff at all. Yet the bookies (Bet365) have Torys @1/5 to win the seat, SNP are 7/2. Where are they getting this information from? At those odds it has to be the BBC[emoji6] 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 6, 2017 Share Posted June 6, 2017 https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-election-2017-forecast-1-latest-prediction/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted June 6, 2017 Author Share Posted June 6, 2017 https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-election-2017-forecast-1-latest-prediction/ Pish 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glasgow-sheep Posted June 6, 2017 Share Posted June 6, 2017 West Aberdeenshire is a strange one. Never realised the SNP majority was so large last time around. This will be the first time I've voted in this area having moved to Laurencekirk recently. Seen nothing but SNP posters/banners on display in the area, no Tory stuff at all. Yet the bookies (Bet365) have Torys @1/5 to win the seat, SNP are 7/2. Where are they getting this information from? Head over the mounth. My dad lives in Banchory and apparently the surrounding area is drowning in tory banners. Farmers and landowners back in force with their tory support. The seat is traditionally a tory lib dem marginal and snp came from a distant third to win two years ago. Huge no vote too. I'd be utterly shocked if it doesn't go tory 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearbuyerbell Posted June 6, 2017 Share Posted June 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, glasgow-sheep said: Head over the mounth. My dad lives in Banchory and apparently the surrounding area is drowning in tory banners. Farmers and landowners back in force with their tory support. The seat is traditionally a tory lib dem marginal and snp came from a distant third to win two years ago. Huge no vote too. I'd be utterly shocked if it doesn't go tory Who's your old man backing? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 6, 2017 Share Posted June 6, 2017 Westminster voting intention:CON: 43% (-)LAB: 36% (-1)LDEM: 8% (+2)UKIP: 5% (-)GRN: 2%(-)(via @OpiniumResearch / 04 - 06 Jun)I assume there will be a rush of last day polls tomorrow? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bring Your Own Socks Posted June 6, 2017 Share Posted June 6, 2017 ..,the surrounding area is drowning in tory banners. Farmers and landowners back in force with their tory support. Presumably because they think a Tory government will prevent their subsidies and standard of living?The singular reason I voted remain was this. Whatever the number is that UK pays into the EU pot will eventually become zero. Consequently, the various EU funding schemes back into UK will also zero. Those currently benefitting will then become dependant on Westminster support. The Tory party has demonstrated that anyone outside London is just resource for the mother ship. In England they've been cleansing, over 30 years, inner cities and creating a dependency on debt and benefits, crippling the poor and working classes. They are now throttling the young professionals, laden with debt from their education, with horrendous build-to-rent housing, rampant rent costs and no property ownership for their later years. HS2 won't be built to prosper Birmingham and Manchester. It's to drain northern England of their best talent for the benefit of London. And it's going to get worse as the Establishment becomes more desperate to defend the remnants of the Empire.We're very lucky we have a credible option to get away from this shite. Farmers, in an increasingly competitive global market, should really start thinking about who will be looking after them in the next decade. Blinkered, selfish b*****ds. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludo*1 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 I can only speak from what I see and know, and a lot of SNP voters are having their head's turned by Jeremy Corbyn. I sincerely hope that doesn't transfer across the whole of Scotland. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAD Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 5 hours ago, Ludo*1 said: I can only speak from what I see and know, and a lot of SNP voters are having their head's turned by Jeremy Corbyn. I sincerely hope that doesn't transfer across the whole of Scotland. I'm seeing the same thing unfortunately. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 16 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said: In a Scottish context, if the Tories are picking up most of their extra support in former Labour seats to a greater extent than they are in their target constituencies they may be in for a bit of a dissappointment. They should win the Borders seat, Galloway and Upper Nithsdale, and West Aberdeenshire in addition to Mundell's seat without any problem, but after that local factors could limit their gains. There is no 'Galloway and Upper Nithsdale' seat. There hasn't been for a while. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McSpreader Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 6 hours ago, Ludo*1 said: I can only speak from what I see and know, and a lot of SNP voters are having their head's turned by Jeremy Corbyn. I sincerely hope that doesn't transfer across the whole of Scotland. Not helped by Sturgeon's incessant pitch for Indyref2...... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 (edited) Tomorrow will be all about who turns out and which polling teams models got that correct. Personally I expect the Tories to be closer to a 100 majority than no majority because the people they are relying on tend to turn up on polling day, the younger people the others are relying on tend not too. Perhaps this time will be different. IndtRef showed you can boost youth turn out, perhaps something similar will happen tomorrow. Britain Elects nowcast is grim, but I think it is overweighted to older polls, given the rate of change for the Lab vote and the drop on Con (including Scotland specific) That said voters often move to the Conservatives in the final couple of days as the happy fluffy message wears off and the "who will run the economy" comes to the fore i n peoples minds. One thing, May has murdered UKIPs pretensions at being a major national voice. Edited June 7, 2017 by dorlomin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkoRaj Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 May hasn't murdered anything. UKIP were a single issue waste of oxygen. Now that the single issue has been achieved, they are a complete irrelevance 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Monkey Tennis said: There is no 'Galloway and Upper Nithsdale' seat. There hasn't been for a while. I had better things to do with my time than googling to find out what the latest name for that constituency was. I think the meaning was still clear. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TartanWarrior Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheese Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, TartanWarrior said: Support for Indy is considerably higher in the younger age groups, making it inevitable that one day we'll eventually run our own affairs like every other country in the world. Unlucky. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TartanWarrior Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said: Support for Indy is considerably higher in the younger age groups, making it inevitable that one day we'll eventually run our own affairs like every other country in the world. Unlucky. No since as people get older they get more conservative and sensible (same thing really). This will cause a lot of them to abandon the yesser madness. Support for "independence" is dropping like a stone now. It's never happening. Unlucky. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Lots of final polls due out today - ICM, ComRes, YouGov, Panelbase, Kantar, Survation and Survey Monkey. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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