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General Election 2017: Scottish Seat Predictions


Stephen Malkmus

General Election - Scottish Seats  

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Did this for the last election and fewer than 5% of voters correctly guessed that the SNP would win more than 51 seats. So try to guess better this time, idiots.

I can't add more than three questions so please post the number of seats you think Labour will win in the thread. I think they'll win 1.

Bonus points for guessing which seats the three challengers will win:

Labour - Edinburgh South

Lib Dem - Northern Isles, East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West

Conservatives - The three Borders seats and West Aberdeenshire

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Tories will hold on to what they've got and pick up West Aberdeenshire, Dumfries and Galloway and Berwickshire. They'll probably also close the gap significantly in their former seats and give a couple of established SNP MPs a scare but I think they're too far behind to win anything else.

The Lib Dems will probably win back Edinburgh West and have a decent chance in East Dunbartonshire and North East Fife.

Labour will be lucky to hold on to the one seat they do have.

SNP 51

Tories 4

Lib Dem 3

Labour 1

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Feeling smug in the knowledge that the Clyde Riviera would not lower itself to electing any of these craven Britnat candidates. A crushing, 14,000 majority for the good guys this time IMO. 

29pdkia.jpg

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On 20 April 2017 at 18:34, Stephen Malkmus said:

Did this for the last election and fewer than 5% of voters correctly guessed that the SNP would win more than 51 seats. So try to guess better this time, idiots.

I can't add more than three questions so please post the number of seats you think Labour will win in the thread. I think they'll win 1.

Bonus points for guessing which seats the three challengers will win:

Labour - Edinburgh South

Lib Dem - Northern Isles, East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West

Conservatives - The three Borders seats and West Aberdeenshire

Plus East Ren, Ayr South and parts of the North East

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Did this for the last election and fewer than 5% of voters correctly guessed that the SNP would win more than 51 seats. So try to guess better this time, idiots.
I can't add more than three questions so please post the number of seats you think Labour will win in the thread. I think they'll win 1.
Bonus points for guessing which seats the three challengers will win:
Labour - Edinburgh South
Lib Dem - Northern Isles, East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West
Conservatives - The three Borders seats and West Aberdeenshire


Labour 0
Lib dems 3 Northern Isles, Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire
Tories 5 three border seats, East Renfrewshire and Aberdeenshire West.
SNP 51
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Did my prediction on another thread. But here it is again.

Tories - Mundell keeps seat and take Berwickshire - they'll the narrow gap in Aberdeenshire West and other similar seats but not enough to take them.

SNP - lose Berwickshire but take Edinburgh South

Lib Dems - Carmichael will (sadly) hold on to Orkney and Shetland and run the SNP close but not enough to win East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West.

Labour are fucked - bye bye to their only MP in Edinburgh South.

SNP - 56
Tories - 2
Lib Dems - 1
Labour - 0

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44 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Did my prediction on another thread. But here it is again.

Tories - Mundell keeps seat and take Berwickshire - they'll the narrow gap in Aberdeenshire West and other similar seats but not enough to take them.

SNP - lose Berwickshire but take Edinburgh South

Lib Dems - Carmichael will (sadly) hold on to Orkney and Shetland and run the SNP close but not enough to win East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West.

Labour are fucked - bye bye to their only MP in Edinburgh South.

SNP - 56
Tories - 2
Lib Dems - 1
Labour - 0

My thoughts exactly.  It will almost be worth losing a couple of SNP seats to have zero Scottish Labour MPs.

Anything over 52/53 for the SNP will be massive.

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Did this for the last election and fewer than 5% of voters correctly guessed that the SNP would win more than 51 seats. So try to guess better this time, idiots.

I can't add more than three questions so please post the number of seats you think Labour will win in the thread. I think they'll win 1.

Bonus points for guessing which seats the three challengers will win:

Labour - Edinburgh South

Lib Dem - Northern Isles, East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West

Conservatives - The three Borders seats and West Aberdeenshire

 

I think I agree with that exact analysis. Is the Scottish Parliament seat Labour won from the SNP in Edinburgh the same as the UK seat? If it is, Murray should just about be okay.

 

Actually, I'll say NE Fife could be a LD gain also.

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12 hours ago, Sooky said:

 

I think I agree with that exact analysis. Is the Scottish Parliament seat Labour won from the SNP in Edinburgh the same as the UK seat? If it is, Murray should just about be okay.

 

Actually, I'll say NE Fife could be a LD gain also.

There is some talk here that Edinburgh South might go SNP. I think it might be possible as there isn't as much support for Labour and I am not sure Murray's popularity is enough to overcome that. There is a high proportion of students and academics around here so anything that looks like support for brexit puts a Tory vote out of the window - I think SNP's pro EU stance could swing it for them.

Then again I am notoriously hopeless at predicting election results so I might be totally wrong. I'll be voting for them anyway, so will the OH.

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7 minutes ago, Jambomo said:

There is some talk here that Edinburgh South might go SNP. I think it might be possible as there isn't as much support for Labour and I am not sure Murray's popularity is enough to overcome that. There is a high proportion of students and academics around here so anything that looks like support for brexit puts a Tory vote out of the window - I think SNP's pro EU stance could swing it for them.

Then again I am notoriously hopeless at predicting election results so I might be totally wrong. I'll be voting for them anyway, so will the OH.

Anyone voting for Ian Murray needs to have a word.

He's in the papers today saying Labour are the only party who can stop the SNP in Scotland.  This not long after he announced he doesn't believe Jeremy Corbyn can win an election.

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22 minutes ago, Fide said:

Anyone voting for Ian Murray needs to have a word.

He's in the papers today saying Labour are the only party who can stop the SNP in Scotland.  This not long after he announced he doesn't believe Jeremy Corbyn can win an election.

I know. I've never been much of a fan of his although I appreciate what he did for Hearts, you can't can't base your voting preferences entirely on that. Unless you are a Rangers fan. ;)

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John Curtice's analysis of tonight's Panelbase poll says that it pr diets the Conservatives will win 12 seats, Labour win none. Don't know about the Lib Dems.

I don't beliefe that but then I didn't believe the SNP would win as big as they did or anything else that's ever happened to be honest.

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