Oor Nicola Sturgeon thread.

[BFTD]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

SG: We said we'd use this election as a de-facto referendum and we won. Can we be independent now, please?

WM: Lol. No.

Then what?

Dirty protest.

Even dirtier than normal.

[sophia]

4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

SG: We said we'd use this election as a de-facto referendum and we won. Can we be independent now, please?

WM: Lol. No.

Then what?

A stern word?

[btb]

2 hours ago, DAFC. said:

They never imagined a pro-indy party could/would ever win elections in this country.

The SNP have totally flipped politics on its head in this country, and the elite/unionists HATE it. They know, unless there is some miraculous drop in appetite for indy in this country, or Labour/Tories decide to jump in to bed with each other at a national level (they’ve already done it during the referendum and at local level anyway, so why not?) it’ll continue to be dominated by SNP ergo indyref soundbites continuing indefinitely.

Based on that would the Unionists in Westminster (whoever is in charge) not be better biting the bullet, sanctioning indyref, and if they win it probably kills it for a good long while? This is going nowhere any time soon. Keep saying “You had your chance in 2014” just doesn’t wash at all.

As I've said previously the YES vote has never polled over 50% consistently, never mind the consistent 60% that was the prerequisite back in the day, IIRC, peoples views are settled on the issue. It'll take a long time for demographics to swing the needle to YES. Labour especially would be smart to sanction a second referendum after the next GE.

[Granny Danger]

2 hours ago, DAFC. said:

They never imagined a pro-indy party could/would ever win elections in this country.

The SNP have totally flipped politics on its head in this country, and the elite/unionists HATE it. They know, unless there is some miraculous drop in appetite for indy in this country, or Labour/Tories decide to jump in to bed with each other at a national level (they’ve already done it during the referendum and at local level anyway, so why not?) it’ll continue to be dominated by SNP ergo indyref soundbites continuing indefinitely.

Based on that would the Unionists in Westminster (whoever is in charge) not be better biting the bullet, sanctioning indyref, and if they win it probably kills it for a good long while? This is going nowhere any time soon. Keep saying “You had your chance in 2014” just doesn’t wash at all.

 

6 minutes ago, btb said:

As I've said previously the YES vote has never polled over 50% consistently, never mind the consistent 60% that was the prerequisite back in the day, IIRC, peoples views are settled on the issue. It'll take a long time for demographics to swing the needle to YES. Labour especially would be smart to sanction a second referendum after the next GE.

Remember “a week’s a long time in politics”?

Despite the polls there is nothing to guarantee that YES wouldn’t win and that scares the life out of the Unionists.

Also anyone who thinks defeat in IndyRef2 puts the whole thing to bed isn’t paying attention.

 

[BFTD]

10 minutes ago, sophia said:

A stern word?

STRONG RECOMMENDATION.

10 minutes ago, btb said:

As I've said previously the YES vote has never polled over 50% consistently, never mind the consistent 60% that was the prerequisite back in the day, IIRC, peoples views are settled on the issue. It'll take a long time for demographics to swing the needle to YES. Labour especially would be smart to sanction a second referendum after the next GE.

With a minimum 60% Yes requirement? Absolutely.

Or they could always keep schtum and just impose that requirement afterwards. Labour are good like that with referenda. Pretty sure David Cameron's government would've tried something like that if Yes had managed to just creep over the line in 2014.

[renton]

33 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

SG: We said we'd use this election as a de-facto referendum and we won. Can we be independent now, please?

WM: Lol. No.

Then what?

As I said, since all referendums in the UK are consultative, because there is no legal mechanism that can compel the UK government to act in a way that acknowledges a Scottish mandate secured by any means then.... your guess is as good as mine.

[Todd_is_God]

9 minutes ago, renton said:

As I said, since all referendums in the UK are consultative, because there is no legal mechanism that can compel the UK government to act in a way that acknowledges a Scottish mandate secured by any means then.... your guess is as good as mine.

I don't have to guess, though, as it would be just like every day since about 2016. Stagnant, polarising politics which achieve little other than creating divisions.

[ICTChris]

43 minutes ago, btb said:

As I've said previously the YES vote has never polled over 50% consistently, never mind the consistent 60% that was the prerequisite back in the day, IIRC, peoples views are settled on the issue. It'll take a long time for demographics to swing the needle to YES. Labour especially would be smart to sanction a second referendum after the next GE.

I don't think a UK government will ever again hold a referendum on something they don't want to happen.  The Cameron government almost lost the Scottish referendum and then did lose the Brexit referendum.  The gamble was massive on both and given what's happened since Brexit and, to a far lesser degree, since the independence referendum, no UK government will ever do it again.

[renton]

5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I don't have to guess, though, as it would be just like every day since about 2016. Stagnant, polarising politics which achieve little other than creating divisions.

Hate to tell you but politics tends to be stagnant, divisive and polarising regardless of the issue.

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Maybe there would be a widespread outpouring of genuine public anger.

Maybe that would swing people into a harder core Yes than we've been used to.

Maybe a new party will emerge led by someone who is not a sex pest and who will stand on a policy of UDI.

Maybe people will start voting for that party and in X years time that party takes power just like the SNP did and simply take Scotland out of the UK.

Who knows. If the unionists fancy gambling on an issue that some rightly or wrongly see as a battle for freedom then they are welcome to roll the dice.

That sounds absolutely shite tbh. Can't wait for x years more of "Westminster are bad but we'll do nothing but moan" rhetoric.

[ICTChris]

4 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Maybe there would be a widespread outpouring of genuine public anger.

Maybe that would swing people into a harder core Yes than we've been used to.

Maybe a new party will emerge led by someone who is not a sex pest and who will stand on a policy of UDI.

Maybe people will start voting for that party and in X years time that party takes power just like the SNP did and simply take Scotland out of the UK.

Who knows. If the unionists fancy gambling on an issue that some rightly or wrongly see as a battle for freedom then they are welcome to roll the dice.

If the court rules against holding a referendum or rules that whatever referendum is held has no weight then I think that is basically that for Scottish independence.  The only way that the SNP could win would be to hold the balance of power in Westminster and pledge to support whichever party will give them a vote but I can't see either major party backing that stance.

[renton]

3 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

If the court rules against holding a referendum or rules that whatever referendum is held has no weight then I think that is basically that for Scottish independence.  The only way that the SNP could win would be to hold the balance of power in Westminster and pledge to support whichever party will give them a vote but I can't see either major party backing that stance.

The only issue there being that sentiment in favour of independence is unlikely to go away.

[Guest Jedi]

1 hour ago, sophia said:

My word!

So you were trolling then

I'm not sure what you're getting at. Perhaps you are directing this to another poster. If so, would you do them the courtesy of quoting them? That would make things nice and clear.

Otherwise, I'm still not sure what you are trying to get across but we sure do know what the UK looks like and it isn't nice.

 

Listen darling, wouldn't have the first idea of when I'm clearly satisfied so don't ever presume that you do.

I don't have the intellectual capacity to separate the posts (the latter of which, yes were in response to a post which wasn't yours), but crack on.

[welshbairn]

I think the Tories would be more likely to concede a referendum, if it meant they would hold on to power, than Labour. Look how they shafted the DUP to get Brexit through, and they have contempt for the Scottish Tories, especially "lightweight" Ross. Whether the SNP would take the risk of what putting the Tories back in power would do to their popularity if they lost the referendum raises another doubt.

Edited October 12, 2022 by welshbairn

[ICTChris]

1 minute ago, oaksoft said:

It might be the end of the SNP but IMO there's no chance of it being the end of independence. Too many people in the country have invested their entire sense of identity in an independent Scotland to just walk away because the Tories said No.

Democracy denied will absolutely end in violence. It's as simple as that and the evidence is in virtually every part of the world when freedom is denied to people.

Do you think there will be terrorist campaigns?  Civil disobedience?  Will people refuse to pay taxes, stuff like that?

I guess all these things could happen - hopefully not the first and I don't think it would.  I was just meaning that there wouldn't be a legal route available for Scottish independence. 

[sophia]

4 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

If the court rules against holding a referendum or rules that whatever referendum is held has no weight then I think that is basically that for Scottish independence.  The only way that the SNP could win would be to hold the balance of power in Westminster and pledge to support whichever party will give them a vote but I can't see either major party backing that stance.

The yes movement is not the snp.

I for one, not a member of the SNP, would be redoubled in my determination.

It would be very far "from that"

 

[ICTChris]

3 minutes ago, renton said:

The only issue there being that sentiment in favour of independence is unlikely to go away.

That's true - I'm not sure what affect any legal route for independence being closed for the forseeable future would have on independence supporters in Scotland, I suppose no-one really knows.  It might cause some to become more commited, it might lead to some abandoning it.  SNP support is not rock solid - in 2017 they lost 40% of their seats, a lot of their supporters stayed at home.  The SNP might split, more might go and join Alba, they might get a new leader who isn't as popular or effective as Sturgeon. 

[sophia]

2 minutes ago, Jedi said:

I don't have the intellectual capacity to separate the posts (the latter of which, yes were in response to a post which wasn't yours), but crack on.

You absolutely do have the intellectual capacity to do something that even a luddite like me can embrace.

You just need to be open to new possibilities.

click click 

This post is brought to you by www.allegorical.co.uk 

 

 

[Sponge rab]

[Guest Jedi]

If the current polls continue with Yes/No swinging back and forth with each holding leads of around 52-48 (but rarely much more), it does seem clear that the issue won't indeed go away.

'If' there is a 2nd Ref waved through by the Supreme Court...it would be anyone's guess which way that 52-odd per cent will fall-could be either side.

Whichever side wins however, similar to Brexit I would imagine that agitation from the losing side to contest another Ref (or find other parliamentary routes) will continue.

Say its 'Yes' by 51/52%.....you could see a rejoin the UK position emerging from the other parties. That may seem laughable, but with such a narrow majority, same as the Brexit vote, and around half the country in the other camp....does that keep the debate going as well?

Similarly, a 'No' by 51/52% you would think that the SNP would enter the next election again on a hold another Ref platform. Otherwise where do they go as a party?