The DUP

[DublinMagyar]

not looking good for DUP

[doulikefish]

1 hour ago, DublinMagyar said:

not looking good for DUP

Talks of an early election 

[sophia]

31 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Talks of an early election 

The weekend starts here 

[Clown Job]

 

[tamthebam]

What if the rest of us say we've had enough of the DUP?

[invergowrie arab]

Didn't know about the rose bush TBF.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

Ma communitay!

[LongTimeLurker]

Just noticed that the DUP have moved Edwin Poots to South Belfast. Interesting constituency to parachute the Agriculture minister and a homophobic young earth creationist into (not too many open fields and a bit like sending him to Brighton) but if they only field one candidate he'll probably get in.

Guess that deals with their internal split so all they need to do now is go mental over the Irish Sea customs checks to squeeze TUV well below the STV quota, pick up their transfers in and around Belfast and plenty of UUP ones west of the River Bann and hope they can somehow cobble together more MLAs than the SFers.

[Jacksgranda]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Just noticed that the DUP have moved Edwin Poots to South Belfast. Interesting constituency to parachute the Agriculture minister and a homophobic young earth creationist into (not too many open fields and a bit like sending him to Brighton) but if they only field one candidate he'll probably get in.

Guess that deals with their internal split so all they need to do now is go mental over the Irish Sea customs checks to squeeze TUV well below the STV quota, pick up their transfers in and around Belfast and plenty of UUP ones west of the River Bann and hope they can somehow cobble together more MLAs than the SFers.

I'm not sure they will this time.

[Kejan]

 

5 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Just noticed that the DUP have moved Edwin Poots to South Belfast. Interesting constituency to parachute the Agriculture minister and a homophobic young earth creationist into (not too many open fields and a bit like sending him to Brighton) but if they only field one candidate he'll probably get in.

Guess that deals with their internal split so all they need to do now is go mental over the Irish Sea customs checks to squeeze TUV well below the STV quota, pick up their transfers in and around Belfast and plenty of UUP ones west of the River Bann and hope they can somehow cobble together more MLAs than the SFers.

There's not a hope in hell of them beating SF. They'll get UUP/SDLP numbers e.g 12-15 or on a good day up to 20!

First Minister O'Neill in a few weeks.

 

[LongTimeLurker]

The phrase "somehow cobble together" was supposed to convey how likely I think that is to happen. The combined overtly Unionist vote is still likely to be around 40% minimum and probably a bit higher so under STV a lot depends on how efficiently those votes transfer to the largest Unionist party.

Think what sinks the DUP as the largest party this time is that the crypto-Unionist component of Alliance & Green support and the ability of those parties to attract UUP transfers will be large/strong enough to take a few MLAs out of the Unionist camp this time.

A bit like FF and FG in an RoI context, the UUP and DUP are probably going to have to merge soon to be able to stop SF from being the largest party.

[Duries Air Freshener]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

The phrase "somehow cobble together" was supposed to convey how likely I think that is to happen. The combined overtly Unionist vote is still likely to be around 40% minimum and probably a bit higher so under STV a lot depends on how efficiently those votes transfer to the largest Unionist party.

Think what sinks the DUP as the largest party this time is that the crypto-Unionist component of Alliance & Green support and the ability of those parties to attract UUP transfers will be large/strong enough to take a few MLAs out of the Unionist camp this time.

A bit like FF and FG in an RoI context, the UUP and DUP are probably going to have to merge soon to be able to stop SF from being the largest party.

All the DUP need to do is persuade some of their pals in the Tory party to make some tactically tough noises about the protocol, and the votes will come flooding back from the TUV.

Then the DUP are once again the biggest party.  Bingo.

The obsession over the DUP's religious beliefs will be through the roof once more.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Duries Air Freshener

[BucksburnDandy]

I'm not sure they will this time.

Couple of questions Jacksgranda if you don't mind indulging me:

1) What are the options looking like in your constituency, any of them looking reasonable choices to vote for?

2) At present, what do you think the likelihood is of the DUP actually participating in Stormont if they are not the biggest party?

[Jacksgranda]

11 hours ago, BucksburnDandy said:

Couple of questions Jacksgranda if you don't mind indulging me:

1) What are the options looking like in your constituency, any of them looking reasonable choices to vote for?

2) At present, what do you think the likelihood is of the DUP actually participating in Stormont if they are not the biggest party?

1) The DUP haven't announced their candidate(s) yet, at present the candidates are 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 TUV and 1 Green. At the last election 3 SF, 1 SDLP and 1 DUP got elected, and I would be surprised if this wasn't repeated.

2) No idea. Probably, and they've made so many non committal responses to that question they've probably left themselves an option of participating.

[Jacksgranda]

On 20/03/2022 at 21:07, BucksburnDandy said:

Couple of questions Jacksgranda if you don't mind indulging me:

1) What are the options looking like in your constituency, any of them looking reasonable choices to vote for?

2) At present, what do you think the likelihood is of the DUP actually participating in Stormont if they are not the biggest party?

Read an article in the Belfast Telegraph the other day (Wednesday?) about the DUP strategy this time round. They are only fielding 34 candidates IIRC, as opposed to 38 last time out, rather than trying to gain extra seats they are trying to hold on to what they have, not spreading their vote too thin in the hopes of getting 3 seats in certain constituencies but fielding 2 candidates in the certainty of holding their current two seats.*

*That might not be a "certainty".

[BucksburnDandy]

Read an article in the Belfast Telegraph the other day (Wednesday?) about the DUP strategy this time round. They are only fielding 34 candidates IIRC, as opposed to 38 last time out, rather than trying to gain extra seats they are trying to hold on to what they have, not spreading their vote too thin in the hopes of getting 3 seats in certain constituencies but fielding 2 candidates in the certainty of holding their current two seats.*
*That might not be a "certainty".

Seems quite a pragmatic strategy given the predicted fall in their vote share. What chance that Unionist voters revert to type and go DUP as opposed to TUV and UUP?

Also, how will Alliance get on given their popularity among younger voters?

[Jacksgranda]

9 hours ago, BucksburnDandy said:

Seems quite a pragmatic strategy given the predicted fall in their vote share. What chance that Unionist voters revert to type and go DUP as opposed to TUV and UUP?

Also, how will Alliance get on given their popularity among younger voters?

The DUP are a very pragmatic party, witness their recent leadership changes, no hanging about there. Whether they can get the unionist vote out and get enough transfers from the TUV and the UUP., time will tell. Jim Allister was very bullish at the last TUV conference (although you'd hardly expect him to be anything else) and while it was hardly along the lines of David Steel's "Go home and prepare for Government" it was even more optimistic than usual. If the TUV can get even only 2 more seats it would scupper the DUP's chances of remaining top dog, imo.

Unionist views range from apathy to cynicism with a great deal of anger about the NI Protocol, which may be the DUP's trump card, playing on that anger. However, ultimately they have to try to do something about getting rid of it (the Protocol) and their only option appears to be not forming an Executive, which may not go down well with all unionists.

It's all very well flexing your liberal conscience by voting Alliance 1 Green 2, or vice versa, in leafy suburban Belfast or the Gold Coast of North Down, where the sectarianism is covered by a veneer of professional mutual self interest, but out here in the sticks things are a wee bit different.

My wife's nephew was murdered by the IRA, our next door neighbour's b-i-l was murdered by the IRA, our local postman was murdered by the IRA while doing his day job, a step daughter's ex partner's father was murdered by the IRA in the grounds of the local hospital while visiting his wife and new born son, another step daughter's partner's cousin was killed by an IRA booby trap bomb, one of the ushers at our wedding had a cousin murdered in the IRA Claudy bombing. A "wrong" vote could let in Sinn Fein, a party that glorifies and excuses those that carried out those and similar deeds. Indeed there is a commeration parade every year for those killers held a mile from our house. (It is unlikely a "wrong" vote in my constituency would let Sinn Fein in as they hold 3 seats and are only fielding 3 candidates, but the point stands.)

The further west and more rural you go from Belfast the less likely Alliance are to make inroads, although that is very slowly changing.

[Jacksgranda]

On 26/03/2022 at 21:11, BucksburnDandy said:

Seems quite a pragmatic strategy given the predicted fall in their vote share. What chance that Unionist voters revert to type and go DUP as opposed to TUV and UUP?

Also, how will Alliance get on given their popularity among younger voters?

Alliance hoping to do well. (Well, they would be, wouldn't they?)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-61029123

[Jacksgranda]

On 26/03/2022 at 09:14, Jacksgranda said:

Read an article in the Belfast Telegraph the other day (Wednesday?) about the DUP strategy this time round. They are only fielding 34 candidates IIRC, as opposed to 38 last time out, rather than trying to gain extra seats they are trying to hold on to what they have, not spreading their vote too thin in the hopes of getting 3 seats in certain constituencies but fielding 2 candidates in the certainty of holding their current two seats.*

*That might not be a "certainty".

30 candidates

[BucksburnDandy]

30 candidates

Is this to maximise their vote or because they don't have enough folk who deny the existence of dinosaurs etc to stand?