vikingTON Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, pandarilla said: Once again you've provided a detailed post pointed out what no-one is seriously arguing. There's no real signs that the 'bubble' will burst. But that's not the point. Except that according to the poster that you're white knighting for here: Quote Combine this with your traditional fans like myself that loved watching English football and football in general (after Scottish football) that are disenfranchised with the game and no longer watch it as a live event then the bubble will certainly burst at some point. Someone was in fact arguing that there is a 'bubble' that is going to burst; my fact-based analysis has demolished that case. So that was in fact the point under debate; do keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 What is the point though? Why don't you like big transfer fees or wages? They're not 'big' transfer fees or wages, they're astronomical. It's morally indefensible. The gap between the richest and poorest in our society is absolutely massive and continuing to grow. Now I fully understand that this is not the fault of football but it is clearly one of the most high profile issues (due to the sheer interest and media coverage). We lose perspective on what's actually important in life, and it becomes much less about sport. Again, this is not something new, but it continues to grow. Clubs and players also lose connection with the communities they represent, and again I don't think that's a good thing. I think there's also some evidence that it's not helping these young guys develop as players and as people. It's so difficult for them to remain grounded - and as individuals they often fail to achieve potential and then struggle to cope with the aftermath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Someone was in fact arguing that there is a 'bubble' that is going to burst; my fact-based analysis has demolished that case. So that was in fact the point under debate; do keep up. Do you think the rate of growth will continue?Do you have any concerns about the effect of this amount of money in football? Does it sit comfortably with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivo den Bieman Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 when did you "sign" for Gretna, virginton? (as to money: it's been spoiling the game since the early 1990s and the advent of SuperRupert's TV money, and more lately global betting; it's dis-spiriting to have a good ly proportion of EPL short sponsors as betting companies or their affiliates. When Rupert finally dies and goes to Valhalla /decides to invest in screening live anvil-throwing instead, the Premier League is probably going to be fucked for a few years, as was Serie A when TV money and interest dried up a while back). When mainstream pundits on sky and the BBC are suggesting football has finally lost its mind then you know the game's up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjc Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 54 minutes ago, virginton said: Your posts positively reek of #AMF mopery - you don't need to publicly declare that. You can express your 'boredom' with the direction of club football all you want - yours is a minority viewpoint within a continually expanding viewing audience and fanbase. So it's not going to contribute to an inevitable bursting of a 'bubble' as you claimed. The Champions league viewing figures are drastically down i believe. I'm sure the Italian league thought their bubble would never burst either.... The 'here's one article about how millennials are changing everything!' claim has already been dealt with. What baffles me at this stage is that you seemingly refuse to believe that the financial and commercial managers in charge of global football clubs with hundreds of millions of annual turnover at their disposal are somehow less aware of market forces in their field than either you or some chump who wrote an article. In any case, European top-flight clubs typically have long-standing commercial deals in place with sponsors and through the league bodies with major TV companies. Which undermines your delusion that there is a 'bubble' that will suddenly burst. The very same expert manager types in charge failed to see the collapse of the economy in 2008..... Except that they're not "pissing away money at all" - for most clubs these costs are accounted for by i) increasing revenue from TV, merchandising and match-day sources or ii) external investors buying a controlling stake in the club. Absolutely no club is spending money from 'the next TV deal' as you have claimed - English clubs benefited from the current record TV deal from 2016/17 and that is what is being spent now: Money paid out to agents and in wages all goes out of the game. How many Clubs over the years have banked on EPL or UCL money and signed players on long term contracts on exuberant wages? http://www.espn.co.uk/football/english-premier-league/23/blog/post/2917119/how-premier-league-record-tv-deal-will-affect-english-football Prior to this TV deal, English top-flight clubs were on the whole financially stable. In 2014/15 Premier League clubs made an net profit of £113 million; in 2015/16 a net loss of £117 million from a £3.5 billion turnover. The vast majority of that loss was however accounted for by Aston Villa: twelve of the twenty clubs made a profit, from Leicester (champions) to Norwich (£9 million while being relegated). Four of the top six clubs that typically pay the largest transfer fees and wages made a profit - Arsenal; both Manchester clubs; Tottenham. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/01/premier-league-finances-club-by-club The unavoidable conclusion of this debate is that you have sailed into a discussion on football finances about which you were poorly informed and based your outlook on wishful thinking and false claims about 'overspending' and 'bubbles bursting'. Then when called on it, you seem content to simply regurgitate those debunked myths in the face of evidence and reason. That's not working out too well for you though. All EPL Clubs (or still receiving parachute payments) How are Leeds, Bolton, Sheffield Wed, Nottingham Forest doing financially? Bolton are a prime example : a decade ago have a stadium full of tourist fans in the EPL then relegated and recently bailed out by a hardcore base of fans. You also neglect that many Clubs are propped up on soft loans by benefactors. The continued changes to the UCL format is about one thing: giving greater market share to the same elite Clubs. Why is that when their finances are so rosy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 23 minutes ago, pandarilla said: Do you think the rate of growth will continue? So long as football remains the dominant global sport and the world economy doesn't collapse in a heap, absolutely. The market for televised professional football coverage has plenty of room for growth in markets like China, India and sub-Saharan Africa. All of which are growing at a far higher annual rate than developed markets (and even there football is gaining a share of the lucrative North American market). So barring a Trump-North Korea-China all-out nuclear war, the prospects are sound. And in that event what happens to Manchester City will be at the bottom of anyone's list of priorities. Quote Do you have any concerns about the effect of this amount of money in football? Does it sit comfortably with you? Given that it is a professional sport, absolutely not. Professional sport and money have gone together for decades in American sport franchises and indeed all the way back to antiquity. And all the way back then there were no doubt mopes like you registering their concern about it, and blithely declaring their wish for the 'bubble' to burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 You were playing so nicely there too...Comparing this situation to sport back in antiquity? That kind of point shows that you're not only an arsehole, but actually not as clever as you would have us believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 I can see a clear slow down for the English league, rather than a burst. A few more clubs who gambled a bit will go under but the popularity of the league worldwide will ensure plenty of long term revenue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Sjc, your failure to use a fucking basic quote box makes your points too boring to break down and address one by one. I'll stick to a few points in summary: - listing mismanaged football clubs doesn't actually make the level of spending of the game/league itself inherently unsustainable. Top flight clubs get huge parachute payments when dropping out of a league and nobody forces them to spend it on garbage. They could pocket the money and cut their cloth accordingly. This is what the likes of West Brom and Burnley have done and are reaping the benefits now. Nottingham Forest being a clowncar outfit clearly has nothing to do with spending levels in the top flight, as they haven't played at that level for years. On the one hand you wring your hands about the level of spending at the top, while failing to accept that these elite clubs also more skilled people running their finances than some gubbins outfit in the English Championship. You're setting up an array of straw man points, none of which demonstrate that there is a 'bubble' set to burst. - falling CL figures (proof not provided) are in any case an outcome of the diddy teams playing that you seem to value so highly. The lowest CL viewing figures in Europe are for non-events like BATE v Real Madrid; not for the nth contest between Barcelona and PSG, or Arsenal v Bayern Munich. There is no evidence to show that interest in these more significant matches in the key European market, which in any case is compensated for by growing interest in the rest of the world, where some 6/7 of the global viewing audience actually live. So if you're hanging around waiting on the elite Champions League clubs and their format to implode, you'll be waiting a very long time indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, pandarilla said: You were playing so nicely there too... Comparing this situation to sport back in antiquity? That kind of point shows that you're not only an arsehole, but actually not as clever as you would have us believe. Your blubbering meltdown demonstrates that you didn't actually grasp the point champ. I'm not even remotely concerned by that outcome though. Hard lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Quote The Champions league viewing figures are drastically down i believe. I'm sure the Italian league thought their bubble would never burst either.... The reasons for the decline of the Italian league are different to a financial 'bubble' - you can't draw parallels between every league. Also, the Champions League viewing figures are interesting but I'm not sure they show that people want less Premiership football. Quote The very same expert manager types in charge failed to see the collapse of the economy in 2008..... That's a fair point tbh, I don't think that the signs are that Premiership football is over-inflated but I don't think that the word of people employed in the clubs is enough to take. I'd put a bit more store in the investments made by companies in the product - these fimrs have real skin in the game and if they didn't think they'd get their money back they wouldn't be paying it. Quote Money paid out to agents and in wages all goes out of the game. How many Clubs over the years have banked on EPL or UCL money and signed players on long term contracts on exuberant wages? Players are the reason that all this money is in the game at all. People take out the subscriptions, buy the tickets and jerseys to watch ronaldo, it's right that he is rewarded for that. ETA - virginton makes a good point about individual clubs going bust doesn't make the system more fragile. Markets work best when people fail and others can learn from their mistakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Anyone have any figures on the Premiership clubs annual wage budgets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, 1320Lichtie said: Anyone have any figures on the Premiership clubs annual wage budgets? https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/01/premier-league-finances-club-by-club Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Do you think the rate of growth will continue?Do you have any concerns about the effect of this amount of money in football? Does it sit comfortably with you? Chris, how would you answer these points? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Quote Do you think the rate of growth will continue? I think that the demand for watching Premiership football will remain relatively static in the UK and there's the potential for growth outside the UK, in places like Asia and the USA. Those markets aren't going to be as reliable as the UK but the potential is certainly there. A lot of this depends on the providers of televised sport dealing with the changing demands of viewers and ensuring that revenues can be maintained - I think that they can do that (I would say that as it's part of my job!). Quote Do you have any concerns about the effect of this amount of money in football? Does it sit comfortably with you? I don't really have any concerns and it doesn't sit comfortably or uncomfortably with me. The money paid to players is deserved, they earn it. They entertain millions of people. I don't follow football because of the money or not follow it because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Whether people want to accept it or not, viewing football has become a luxury item which only people with a healthy disposable income can afford and like every luxury item when a deep recession hits then one of the first things to go is the "luxury item". Yes, emerging Economies with new middle classes such as China have massively increased revenues, however there's a slow down happening over there and indeed throughout the Western World. You're also pretty close to the tipping point with regards to how much you can screw out the average punter for TV subscription, I mean £100 + per month for Sky and then you'll need a BT subscription to watch other games and soon it will be Amazon and Netflix in addition, as per the ATP Tennis contract. The main point which nobody appears to understand is that the consumer is quite obviously being raped financially when TV companies can afford to pay what they do for TV rights, which of course means that it's all us dafties who are valuing Jonny Evans at £25 million and paying complete journeymen dumplings lottery rollover wins as an annual salary. Make no mistake, when the next major recession comes, (and I don't believe it's far away) the English Clubs in particular will be completely screwed, Man City aside, as their tax liabilities will destroy them once all your oligarchs, Chinese businessmen and Yankee speculators can no longer afford their little plaything............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 4 hours ago, ICTChris said: In terms of a bubble, I'm not sure the money going into English (and other European) football is a financial bubble. The money mainly comes from television rights money, the companies who pay that take it from subscription and advertising and I don't see either of those drying up. One thing that could have an impact is the move towards more individualised TV like Netflix rather than watching specific channels but even in that sense I think watching live sport will continue to be a big driver of ratings. Indeed. TV money is probably the most frequently mentioned aspect of the 'bubble bursting' narrative, but there's little reason to believe that's going to burst. As you say, people want to subscribe to watch it and they're going to continue to do so. Looking purely at the UK rather than worldwide, one thing you could feasibly see happening is Sky struggling to compete as BT continue to get more games and offer considerably superior coverage, but even if it did ever get to the unrealistic point where Sky dropped out of bidding for EPL coverage entirely it doesn't follow that TV deals will collapse. For a start there are competition rules to guard against a monopoly, then consider that BT will want to continue to pay competitive prices to avoid another company coming along, taking a share of the market then squeezing them out as they've done to Sky. There's no sense in decreasing the amount they pay to save money on the TV deal when they stand to lose as much through subscribers cancelling if their share of games is diluted. Personally I have BT for Scottish & European games and wouldn't care less if they had fewer English games, but I'd confidently predict the vast majority of their subscribers are there for the English football. If they cut the TV deal to the extent that clubs start going bust left, right and centre Serie A style, they're risk doing more damage to themselves than to English football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I think if you were to put a poll on here you'd find that a lot of people are cancelling their sky subscriptions and watching their football through other means. Live streaming through a box, a stick or the Internet.Certainly the impression I'm getting from people. I'd also say that if you had a poll put up asking whether you were more interested in English football 10 year ago than you are now I think the majority would say they preferred it 10 year ago. It's lost its soul a wee bit and I think a lot of people feel the same. Again that's just the impression I get from people. I prefer the Scottish game personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, 1320Lichtie said: I think if you were to put a poll on here you'd find that a lot of people are cancelling their sky subscriptions and watching their football through other means. Live streaming through a box, a stick or the Internet. Certainly the impression I'm getting from people. I'd also say that if you had a poll put up asking whether you were more interested in English football 10 year ago than you are now I think the majority would say they preferred it 10 year ago. It's lost its soul a wee bit and I think a lot of people feel the same. Again that's just the impression I get from people. I prefer the Scottish game personally. Members of Pie and Bovril aren't representative of Sky or BT customers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herman Hessian Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, ICTChris said: Members of Pie and Bovril aren't representative of Sky or BT customers though. would be interesting to see the demographic of those who paid for football on either; I reckon it would be an older, rather better-off profile who can a) afford it and b) aren't necessarily on board with the streaming options; fewer younger, more tech-savvy folk - with less disposable income - are going to pay up when there are free options, and they're the future audience, so there may be a future-bubble of sorts from that generational perspective ??? personally, I'm an old git, but have been perving about on the interweb for decades, so I know my way around the options, plus I'm unconscionably tight-fisted and will pay for nothing if there's an alternative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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