The normalisation of the far-right continues

[RuMoore]

Does he still wanna shag M&Ms? 

Very serious guy...

 

Edited June 7, 2023 by RuMoore

[Wee-Bey]

Carlson understands it's all a grift. He's as establishment as anyone.

[BFTD]

58 minutes ago, Herc said:

Carlson understands it's all a grift. He's as establishment as anyone.

When his messages became public, it was a bit of a surprise to discover that he's a genuine racist, though. I'd always figured that postulating the superiority of white people was probably part of the grift. Call me naive.

[Wee-Bey]

26 minutes ago, BTFD said:

When his messages became public, it was a bit of a surprise to discover that he's a genuine racist, though. I'd always figured that postulating the superiority of white people was probably part of the grift. Call me naive.

Yeah, he's clearly a deeply unpleasant person. What I was getting at was that he attended a liberal arts college, worked for CNN, applied to join the CIA, his dad was a US ambassador, he was also a member of the Democrats for 15 years to in his own words 'maintain the status quo' and vote against 'progressives.

He's as establishment as it comes, just on the conservative/libertarian side.

[StellarHibee]

4 hours ago, Herc said:

Yeah, he's clearly a deeply unpleasant person. What I was getting at was that he attended a liberal arts college, worked for CNN, applied to join the CIA, his dad was a US ambassador, he was also a member of the Democrats for 15 years to in his own words 'maintain the status quo' and vote against 'progressives.

He's as establishment as it comes, just on the conservative/libertarian side.

Sounds like that yanky version of Keir Starmer.

[JohnC]

Lotus Eaters give their take on the popularity of Tucker Carlson.

He simply can't be cancelled...or cucked.

[IGV]

Another win for Banksy.

https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1667136447311142912?s=20

Carole Cadwalladr should really just give up.

Edited June 9, 2023 by IGV

[RuMoore]

"Banksy"

Edited June 9, 2023 by RuMoore

[Trogdor]

7 hours ago, RuMoore said:

"Banksy"

Click bait... I was expecting this...

Instead I got this...

[DiscoStu]

Out of the last 12 Indy polls, only 1 has came out in favour of Yes and out of the last 23, only 3 support a split.

The average gap between is probably around 8% between the two, and given that the polls were too generous to Yes pre-referendum, it could be argued that the real gap is even larger.

Let's stop kidding on that there's some sort of 50/50 split and that support for independence is running high despite the constant SNP scandal.  It isn't.

[lichtgilphead]

1 hour ago, DiscoStu said:

Out of the last 12 Indy polls, only 1 has came out in favour of Yes and out of the last 23, only 3 support a split.

Why pick 12 & 23. Are those the figures that exaggerate recent Yoon leads most favourably?

Why not the the last 2 & 32? By the first measure, only half of Scots support the Union.

1 hour ago, DiscoStu said:

The average gap between is probably around 8% between the two

Can't you do basic statistics?  

The average Yoon lead is ~4.3% in both the last 12 & the last 23

[DiscoStu]

5 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

Why pick 12 & 23. Are those the figures that exaggerate recent Yoon leads most favourably?

Why not the the last 2 & 32? By the first measure, only half of Scots support the Union.

Can't you do basic statistics?  

The average Yoon lead is ~4.3% in both the last 12 & the last 23

 

Hmm, depends how you calculate it and whether you choose to exclude the undecideds, which you've not done.

Doing so is more realistic as they'll have made their minds up when they actually vote.  Guess what?  It also makes the gap considerably larger.

I chose 23 because that takes us to the start of the year, and 12 misses out the ridiculous and loaded outlier commissioned by Scot Goes Pop from 1st to 9th March.

On the run up to 18/09/14, the gaps were much smaller, yet it turned out to be a whopping 11%  If the polling is still as skewed, then you could actually be looking at a lead for the Union of around 14% or so.

So yes, I can do basic statistics.

P.S. My apologies, last night's posts was supposed to go in the latest polls and odds thread.  Mods, please feel free to move it if need be.

Edited June 12, 2023 by DiscoStu

[lichtgilphead]

12 hours ago, DiscoStu said:

Hmm, depends how you calculate it and whether you choose to exclude the undecideds, which you've not done.

Doing so is more realistic as they'll have made their minds up when they actually vote.  Guess what?  It also makes the gap considerably larger.

I've previously suggested that when Yoons use statistics on here, they should make it clear whether or not they are including or excluding "Don't Knows". All it would have needed would be for you to type "Exc DK" or "Inc DK", which would make the comparison clear.

Oddly, however, most Yoons prefer to ignore the difference that including or excluding DKs makes, and strangely (just by chance, I assume) end up picking the figure that makes their case look better. At best it's misleading, at worst it's dishonest.

However, it's not difficult to copy & paste the poll results, and use a spreadsheet to calculate the average Yoon lead with undecideds excluded. I make it ~5.2% over the last 12 and ~4.9% over the last 23. Please feel free to correct my workings if you can find errors. Otherwise, I stand by my contention that you appear incapable of doing basic statistics. Neither figure is anywhere near your claimed 8%.

(Please note that I have not included todays updates to the Wikipedia page, which includes the latest Find Out Now poll result of Yes 43% No 39% DK 11% (or 52% to 48% with DK excluded, which actually works out as a 5% Yes lead when rounding is taken into account)

12 hours ago, DiscoStu said:

I chose 23 because that takes us to the start of the year, and 12 misses out the ridiculous and loaded outlier commissioned by Scot Goes Pop from 1st to 9th March.

There appear to have been 24 polls carried out over the period in question. I'm guessing that you have missed out the Survation poll carried out between 10th-12th January. I'm sure that this was just a mistske, as No had a majority, but again, it doesn't fill me with confidence about your statistical competencies

With regard to the Scot Goes Pop poll, it is true that Scot Goes Pop commissioned the poll,. However, it was conducted by Find Out Now. 

Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Here's the link to the data tables from that poll

https://audience.findoutnow.co.uk/files/reports/Tables_Scot_20230310.xlsx

You appear to be picking polls to ignore to suit your argument rather than on any statistical basis. If I chose to ignore any poll commissioned by DC Thomson just because I dislike their political stance, I would rightly be ridiculed. Like most (including you, it appears), I ignore Scotland In Union's ridiculously biased polls, but they ask a non-standard question. 

Can you please explain exactly why you consider the Scot goes Pop poll to be ridiculous and loaded, whilst you appear to be happy to include another Find Out Now poll in you group of 23? Alternatively, can you explain why you have chosen to exclude this one poll commissioned by Scot Goes Pop, whilst including another poll commissioned by the same organisation?

 

[DiscoStu]

10 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

I've previously suggested that when Yoons use statistics on here, they should make it clear whether or not they are including or excluding "Don't Knows". All it would have needed would be for you to type "Exc DK" or "Inc DK", which would make the comparison clear.

Oddly, however, most Yoons prefer to ignore the difference that including or excluding DKs makes, and strangely (just by chance, I assume) end up picking the figure that makes their case look better. At best it's misleading, at worst it's dishonest.

However, it's not difficult to copy & paste the poll results, and use a spreadsheet to calculate the average Yoon lead with undecideds excluded. I make it ~5.2% over the last 12 and ~4.9% over the last 23. Please feel free to correct my workings if you can find errors. Otherwise, I stand by my contention that you appear incapable of doing basic statistics. Neither figure is anywhere near your claimed 8%.

(Please note that I have not included todays updates to the Wikipedia page, which includes the latest Find Out Now poll result of Yes 43% No 39% DK 11% (or 52% to 48% with DK excluded, which actually works out as a 5% Yes lead when rounding is taken into account)

There appear to have been 24 polls carried out over the period in question. I'm guessing that you have missed out the Survation poll carried out between 10th-12th January. I'm sure that this was just a mistske, as No had a majority, but again, it doesn't fill me with confidence about your statistical competencies

With regard to the Scot Goes Pop poll, it is true that Scot Goes Pop commissioned the poll,. However, it was conducted by Find Out Now. 

Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Here's the link to the data tables from that poll

https://audience.findoutnow.co.uk/files/reports/Tables_Scot_20230310.xlsx

You appear to be picking polls to ignore to suit your argument rather than on any statistical basis. If I chose to ignore any poll commissioned by DC Thomson just because I dislike their political stance, I would rightly be ridiculed. Like most (including you, it appears), I ignore Scotland In Union's ridiculously biased polls, but they ask a non-standard question. 

Can you please explain exactly why you consider the Scot goes Pop poll to be ridiculous and loaded, whilst you appear to be happy to include another Find Out Now poll in you group of 23? Alternatively, can you explain why you have chosen to exclude this one poll commissioned by Scot Goes Pop, whilst including another poll commissioned by the same organisation?

Good morning.

Thanks for the advice with regards to Inc Dk and Ex Dk, I'll be sure to clarify this in future instead of taking the misleading, dishonest yoon route, as you so humbly point out.  From now on my mission will be to have as much integrity as you.

Anyway, Find Out Now being a member of the British Polling Council doesn't contradict my claim, which was that the poll was a dodgy, loaded outlier.  My reasons for it's dodginess were nothing to do with whether it was a BPC member, but to do with the methodology itself, which I remember as being different from the usual polls, hence them giving Yes leads when the rest largely don't.

Your claim of me picking polls to ignore to suit my argument is also false, rendering your DC Thomson analogy meaningless.

Consider yourself pounced

[lichtgilphead]

14 hours ago, DiscoStu said:

Anyway, Find Out Now being a member of the British Polling Council doesn't contradict my claim, which was that the poll was a dodgy, loaded outlier.  My reasons for it's dodginess were nothing to do with whether it was a BPC member, but to do with the methodology itself, which I remember as being different from the usual polls, hence them giving Yes leads when the rest largely don't.

So, can you explain exactly what you consider to be wrong with FON's methodology that gives these dodgy & loaded results? The only reason you appear to have given is that they are finding "Yes" leads, which you don't appear to like.

Using the result of the poll to extrapolate that the methodology is flawed is just more proof that you are statistically illiterate.

 

Here's a screenshot of the link I posted earlier:

and here's the link again, just in case the screenshot is too small to see

Let's have a more detailed look at the methodology:

The Question

Find Out Now asked "If there were a referendum tomorrow with the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?", how would you vote? "

During May 2023, Survation/True North asked "If there was a referendum tomorrow on the question "Should Scotland be an independent country", how would you vote?"

During April 2023, YouGov/The Times asked "If there was a referendum tomorrow on Scotland's future and this was the question, how would you vote? "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

All 3 ask exactly the same question, albeit with some differences in the framing around the question. Can you explain why you consider FON's question is dodgy & loaded, and why the other two are not? Incidentally, this is also exactly the same question that was used in the 2014 indyref.

Recalled Vote at GE 2019

The weightings applied in the Find Out Now poll were SNP 46% CON 26% LAB 19% LD 10% (847 total voters for these 4 parties)

The weightings applied in the Renfield & Winton Strategies June 2023 poll were SNP 46% CON 25% LAB 19% LD 10% (1241 weighted total voters for these 4 parties)

The results are nearly identical. Find Out Now actually gives the Tories a percentage point more than R&WS, which would very slightly increase the No vote! How dodgy & loaded is that!

Recalled vote EU ref 2016

The weightings applied in the Find Out Now poll were 62% remain, 38% leave (851 total voters)

Believe it or not, these figures relect the actual result of the 2016 EU referendum in Scotland! I'm not exactly certain how this can be dodgy & loaded, but surely it must be!

Recalled vote Indyref 1 2014

Find Out Now do not appear to weight their figures by reference to the recalled vote from 2014. This figure is less & less relevant, as anyone currently under 25 would not have been able to vote. However, Renfield & Wilson don't weight by recalled Indyref 2014 vote either.

Gender

Males appear to be slightly over represented in the Find Out Now poll. This has the effect of slightly increasing the No vote, as the poll found that males were slightly more likely to vote No (47%) than females (45%) as females were more likely to be undecided. Both sexes were more likely to vote Yes (50%)

Age 

Comparing the Find Out Now percentages of voters in various age bands with the 2011 census figures gives the following figures

Age     FON    Census       

16-24    14%    14%

25-34   15%    15%

35-44   17%    17%

45-54   18%    18%

55-64   15%    15% 

65 +      20%    20%

Unsurprisingly, the figures match up again! This can't be right!

Social Grade

Similarly, comparing the Find Out Now percentages of voters in various social grades with the 2011 census figures gives the following figures

Grade     FON    Census

AB             19%        19%

C1             32%        31%

C2            22%        24%

DE            28%        26%

However, the slight discrepancies between the census figures & the FON figures for C1, C2 & DE voters will even themselves out, as all 3 categories vote Yes by similar majorities (54%, 53%, 56%). The big difference is with AB voters, who prefer No by 64% to 32%. However, as the AB voter percentage is properly represented (19%), this factor will not influence the overall result of this particular poll.

Conclusion

Find Out Now do not appear to be asking loaded questions or manipulating figures to get dodgy weighted results. Over to you, Stuart

TL:DR

[coprolite]

On 12/06/2023 at 20:28, lichtgilphead said:

I've previously suggested that when Yoons use statistics on here, they should make it clear whether or not they are including or excluding "Don't Knows". All it would have needed would be for you to type "Exc DK" or "Inc DK", which would make the comparison clear.

Oddly, however, most Yoons prefer to ignore the difference that including or excluding DKs makes, and strangely (just by chance, I assume) end up picking the figure that makes their case look better. At best it's misleading, at worst it's dishonest.

However, it's not difficult to copy & paste the poll results, and use a spreadsheet to calculate the average Yoon lead with undecideds excluded. I make it ~5.2% over the last 12 and ~4.9% over the last 23. Please feel free to correct my workings if you can find errors. Otherwise, I stand by my contention that you appear incapable of doing basic statistics. Neither figure is anywhere near your claimed 8%.

(Please note that I have not included todays updates to the Wikipedia page, which includes the latest Find Out Now poll result of Yes 43% No 39% DK 11% (or 52% to 48% with DK excluded, which actually works out as a 5% Yes lead when rounding is taken into account)

There appear to have been 24 polls carried out over the period in question. I'm guessing that you have missed out the Survation poll carried out between 10th-12th January. I'm sure that this was just a mistske, as No had a majority, but again, it doesn't fill me with confidence about your statistical competencies

With regard to the Scot Goes Pop poll, it is true that Scot Goes Pop commissioned the poll,. However, it was conducted by Find Out Now. 

Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Here's the link to the data tables from that poll

https://audience.findoutnow.co.uk/files/reports/Tables_Scot_20230310.xlsx

You appear to be picking polls to ignore to suit your argument rather than on any statistical basis. If I chose to ignore any poll commissioned by DC Thomson just because I dislike their political stance, I would rightly be ridiculed. Like most (including you, it appears), I ignore Scotland In Union's ridiculously biased polls, but they ask a non-standard question. 

Can you please explain exactly why you consider the Scot goes Pop poll to be ridiculous and loaded, whilst you appear to be happy to include another Find Out Now poll in you group of 23? Alternatively, can you explain why you have chosen to exclude this one poll commissioned by Scot Goes Pop, whilst including another poll commissioned by the same organisation?

 

[DiscoStu]

On 14/06/2023 at 00:25, lichtgilphead said:

So, can you explain exactly what you consider to be wrong with FON's methodology that gives these dodgy & loaded results? The only reason you appear to have given is that they are finding "Yes" leads, which you don't appear to like.

Using the result of the poll to extrapolate that the methodology is flawed is just more proof that you are statistically illiterate.

 

Here's a screenshot of the link I posted earlier:

and here's the link again, just in case the screenshot is too small to see

Let's have a more detailed look at the methodology:

The Question

Find Out Now asked "If there were a referendum tomorrow with the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?", how would you vote? "

During May 2023, Survation/True North asked "If there was a referendum tomorrow on the question "Should Scotland be an independent country", how would you vote?"

During April 2023, YouGov/The Times asked "If there was a referendum tomorrow on Scotland's future and this was the question, how would you vote? "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

All 3 ask exactly the same question, albeit with some differences in the framing around the question. Can you explain why you consider FON's question is dodgy & loaded, and why the other two are not? Incidentally, this is also exactly the same question that was used in the 2014 indyref.

Recalled Vote at GE 2019

The weightings applied in the Find Out Now poll were SNP 46% CON 26% LAB 19% LD 10% (847 total voters for these 4 parties)

The weightings applied in the Renfield & Winton Strategies June 2023 poll were SNP 46% CON 25% LAB 19% LD 10% (1241 weighted total voters for these 4 parties)

The results are nearly identical. Find Out Now actually gives the Tories a percentage point more than R&WS, which would very slightly increase the No vote! How dodgy & loaded is that!

Recalled vote EU ref 2016

The weightings applied in the Find Out Now poll were 62% remain, 38% leave (851 total voters)

Believe it or not, these figures relect the actual result of the 2016 EU referendum in Scotland! I'm not exactly certain how this can be dodgy & loaded, but surely it must be!

Recalled vote Indyref 1 2014

Find Out Now do not appear to weight their figures by reference to the recalled vote from 2014. This figure is less & less relevant, as anyone currently under 25 would not have been able to vote. However, Renfield & Wilson don't weight by recalled Indyref 2014 vote either.

Gender

Males appear to be slightly over represented in the Find Out Now poll. This has the effect of slightly increasing the No vote, as the poll found that males were slightly more likely to vote No (47%) than females (45%) as females were more likely to be undecided. Both sexes were more likely to vote Yes (50%)

Age 

Comparing the Find Out Now percentages of voters in various age bands with the 2011 census figures gives the following figures

Age     FON    Census       

16-24    14%    14%

25-34   15%    15%

35-44   17%    17%

45-54   18%    18%

55-64   15%    15% 

65 +      20%    20%

Unsurprisingly, the figures match up again! This can't be right!

Social Grade

Similarly, comparing the Find Out Now percentages of voters in various social grades with the 2011 census figures gives the following figures

Grade     FON    Census

AB             19%        19%

C1             32%        31%

C2            22%        24%

DE            28%        26%

However, the slight discrepancies between the census figures & the FON figures for C1, C2 & DE voters will even themselves out, as all 3 categories vote Yes by similar majorities (54%, 53%, 56%). The big difference is with AB voters, who prefer No by 64% to 32%. However, as the AB voter percentage is properly represented (19%), this factor will not influence the overall result of this particular poll.

Conclusion

Find Out Now do not appear to be asking loaded questions or manipulating figures to get dodgy weighted results. Over to you, Stuart

TL:DR

 

Thanks, I'll give my detailed response in due course.

[DiscoStu]

On 14/06/2023 at 00:25, lichtgilphead said:

So, can you explain exactly what you consider to be wrong with FON's methodology that gives these dodgy & loaded results? The only reason you appear to have given is that they are finding "Yes" leads, which you don't appear to like.

Using the result of the poll to extrapolate that the methodology is flawed is just more proof that you are statistically illiterate.

 

Here's a screenshot of the link I posted earlier:

and here's the link again, just in case the screenshot is too small to see

Let's have a more detailed look at the methodology:

The Question

Find Out Now asked "If there were a referendum tomorrow with the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?", how would you vote? "

During May 2023, Survation/True North asked "If there was a referendum tomorrow on the question "Should Scotland be an independent country", how would you vote?"

During April 2023, YouGov/The Times asked "If there was a referendum tomorrow on Scotland's future and this was the question, how would you vote? "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

All 3 ask exactly the same question, albeit with some differences in the framing around the question. Can you explain why you consider FON's question is dodgy & loaded, and why the other two are not? Incidentally, this is also exactly the same question that was used in the 2014 indyref.

Recalled Vote at GE 2019

The weightings applied in the Find Out Now poll were SNP 46% CON 26% LAB 19% LD 10% (847 total voters for these 4 parties)

The weightings applied in the Renfield & Winton Strategies June 2023 poll were SNP 46% CON 25% LAB 19% LD 10% (1241 weighted total voters for these 4 parties)

The results are nearly identical. Find Out Now actually gives the Tories a percentage point more than R&WS, which would very slightly increase the No vote! How dodgy & loaded is that!

Recalled vote EU ref 2016

The weightings applied in the Find Out Now poll were 62% remain, 38% leave (851 total voters)

Believe it or not, these figures relect the actual result of the 2016 EU referendum in Scotland! I'm not exactly certain how this can be dodgy & loaded, but surely it must be!

Recalled vote Indyref 1 2014

Find Out Now do not appear to weight their figures by reference to the recalled vote from 2014. This figure is less & less relevant, as anyone currently under 25 would not have been able to vote. However, Renfield & Wilson don't weight by recalled Indyref 2014 vote either.

Gender

Males appear to be slightly over represented in the Find Out Now poll. This has the effect of slightly increasing the No vote, as the poll found that males were slightly more likely to vote No (47%) than females (45%) as females were more likely to be undecided. Both sexes were more likely to vote Yes (50%)

Age 

Comparing the Find Out Now percentages of voters in various age bands with the 2011 census figures gives the following figures

Age     FON    Census       

16-24    14%    14%

25-34   15%    15%

35-44   17%    17%

45-54   18%    18%

55-64   15%    15% 

65 +      20%    20%

Unsurprisingly, the figures match up again! This can't be right!

Social Grade

Similarly, comparing the Find Out Now percentages of voters in various social grades with the 2011 census figures gives the following figures

Grade     FON    Census

AB             19%        19%

C1             32%        31%

C2            22%        24%

DE            28%        26%

However, the slight discrepancies between the census figures & the FON figures for C1, C2 & DE voters will even themselves out, as all 3 categories vote Yes by similar majorities (54%, 53%, 56%). The big difference is with AB voters, who prefer No by 64% to 32%. However, as the AB voter percentage is properly represented (19%), this factor will not influence the overall result of this particular poll.

Conclusion

Find Out Now do not appear to be asking loaded questions or manipulating figures to get dodgy weighted results. Over to you, Stuart

TL:DR

 

I see the latest poll leading for Yes is again run by those cowboys at Find Out Now.

A quick glance at the set of farcical Find Out Now data you quote confirms my original thoughts, which is that the weighting is all over the place.  This could actually be described as a self-own on your part.

Age groups favourable to Yes have been overrepresented in the sample and using 13 year old census data is probably the worst way to do it given that ages change.  This will significantly skew the figures in favour of those advocating ripping the country apart.

Yes isn't perceived as the same anti-establishment, fresh cause it used to be and therefore just isn't as attractive to the young as it once was.  Many of them see it as a busted flush and associated with the type of people that turn one off politics completely such as Nicola Sturgeon, Peter Murrell, Derek Mackay, Margaret Ferrier, Bill Walker, Michelle Thomson, Natalie McGarry, Patrick Grady, Jordan Linden, Allan Casey and Mhairi Black amongst others.

Serious question - When you look at the Indy Graph on whatscotlandthinks.org and see that the majority of recent Yes leads come from one polling company, does this not ring alarm bells?  Who do you think does it wrong, FON or all the other companies?

[Suspect Device]

Neo-Nazis sent packing from Scots town by anti-hate counter-protest - Daily Record

Or is this in the wrong thread? Should I stick it in the poll thread? 

[dirty dingus]

1 hour ago, DiscoStu said:

 

I see the latest poll leading for Yes is again run by those cowboys at Find Out Now.

 

What about the Tory founded YouGov, are they cowbys? All polling companies are a bit biased as most normal folk couldn't be arsed to sign up to be part of their information scalping process. I don't know anyone who has been asked for their voting intentions in any of these polls. Take all of them with a pinch of salt.