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The normalisation of the far-right continues


Guest Bob Mahelp

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1 hour ago, dirty dingus said:

What about the Tory founded YouGov, are they cowbys? All polling companies are a bit biased as most normal folk couldn't be arsed to sign up to be part of their information scalping process. I don't know anyone who has been asked for their voting intentions in any of these polls. Take all of them with a pinch of salt.

 

I'm on Yougov.

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4 hours ago, DiscoStu said:

 

I see the latest poll leading for Yes is again run by those cowboys at Find Out Now.

As you previously suggested, we are probably better taking this over to the polling thread. I'll respond in due course.

Edited by lichtgilphead
previuosly!
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3 minutes ago, Zern said:

I was thinking to myself "why Elgin?"

then i remembered whose twitter feed they are likely to be following. 🫤

No doubt Moray's finest will have had something to say about the far-right arriving in his area.

Possibly "it's very concerning that people's legitimate fears about travellers have led to this".

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24 minutes ago, BTFD said:

No doubt Moray's finest will have had something to say about the far-right arriving in his area.

Possibly "it's very concerning that people's legitimate fears about travellers have led to this".

image.png.27226b83ab2f0a34eb2ec99ef1a97a2c.png

Priorities.

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49 minutes ago, MazzyStar said:

He knows what he’s doing. Very few professions will have as many tories as offshore does.  

Most of them are painters and scaffolders from Middlesbrough who think their ownership of an Omega watch puts them at the same table as Alan Sugar.....

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On 18/06/2023 at 03:49, dirty dingus said:

What about the Tory founded YouGov, are they cowbys? All polling companies are a bit biased as most normal folk couldn't be arsed to sign up to be part of their information scalping process. I don't know anyone who has been asked for their voting intentions in any of these polls. Take all of them with a pinch of salt.

538, in the U.S., constantly updates their database to calculate poll bias. The last run I see for the UK was this one from 2017 (cut and paste squished the bars…full post here https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/). I don’t see a break out, unfortunately:

Conservatives have recently outperformed their polls
YEAR POLLING AVERAGE ACTUAL RESULT ACTUAL V. POLLS
2015 Con. +0.6 Con. +6.5 Con. +5.9
2010 Con. +7.9 Con. +7.2 Lab. +0.7
2005 Lab. +6.2 Lab. +2.9 Con. +3.3
2001 Lab. +14.2 Lab. +9.4 Con. +4.8
1997 Lab. +17.5 Lab. +12.8 Con. +4.7
1992 Lab. +1.5 Con. +7.6 Con. +9.1
1987 Con. +8.1 Con. +11.7 Con. +3.6
1983 Con. +20.3 Con. +15.2 Lab. +5.1
1979 Con. +5.9 Con. +7.2 Con. +1.3
1974 (Oct.) Lab. +9.2 Lab. +3.6 Con. +5.6
1974 (Feb.) Con. +2.9 Con. +0.6 Lab. +2.3
1970 Lab. +4.1 Con. +3.4 Con. +7.5
1966 Lab. +11.2 Lab. +6.0 Con. +5.2
1964 Lab. +1.5 Lab. +0.8 Con. +0.7
1959 Con. +3.2 Con. +5.6 Con. +2.4
1955 Con. +3.3 Con. +3.2 Lab. +0.1
1951 Con. +4.5 Lab. +0.8 Lab. +5.3
1950 Con. +0.7 Lab. +2.8 Lab. +3.5
1945 Lab. +6.0 Lab. +8.0 Lab. +2.0

For elections since 1974, results reflect Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) only and not Northern Ireland. Most UK pollsters have excluded Northern Ireland from their samples in recent years.

SOURCE: REPORT OF THE INQUIRY INTO THE 2015 BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OPINION POLLS, RESEARCHBRIEFINGS.PARLIAMENT.UK

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