Aim Here Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Fide said: You might want to increase the likelihood of us going down from 1.4% to somewhere in the 50's. Last time you guys were in a mid-season tailspin, you hired Steve Clarke and turned into a juggernaut, so I'll hang off assuming the worst. Also, it's about 4% likelihood of going down, because there's also a ~50% chance of losing the playoffs... Edited December 30, 2019 by Aim Here 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewh Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 You might want to increase the likelihood of us going down from 1.4% to somewhere in the 50's.No, but Kilmarnock are heading back where they used to be, bottom (six) feeders.We’re joining in too. More interesting than the top half, scrambling for 3rd/4th only to lose in EL qualifiers to a minnow from Armenia or Wales. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djchapsticks Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 13 hours ago, JamieThomas said: Maybe it's the beer talking lads, but we've got a team that won't quit. They got the big scruffy Stendel here...theojanstWgrm...FIVE POINTS BEHIND??!!!? Get outta herezzzzz My favourite part was where he fell asleep at the end. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superkillieaway Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 18 minutes ago, Aim Here said: Last time you guys were in a mid-season tailspin, you hired Steve Clarke and turned into a juggernaut, so I'll hang off assuming the worst. Also, it's about 4% likelihood of going down, because there's also a ~50% chance of losing the playoffs... This time weve given the job to our assistant because he is one of eh boyz and is pals with the players. That usually works out excellently 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PauloPerth Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Aim Here said: I was in the mood to suck the joy out of fitba' with some statistics so I put the last season-and-a-half into a python script, calculated an Elo-based ranking of the team strengths, and then resimulated the rest of the league 10,000 times to get a rough guess as to where the teams would end up. Here, columns are the league positions, rows are the teams, and the values are the percentage chance that a team is predicted to be in that position at the end of the season. Take this with a giant heap of salt, in that this requires some statistical assumptions (Elo parameters were just tuned to something vaguely sensible, and I fitted a probability distribution of goal differences by eyeballing a graph), and some football ones (manager changes and transfer windows might radically change a team's strength - Killie and Hearts would be the obvious top contenders for a rapid change in form). And the method is probably complete bollocks from the get-go, of course. (To keep myself honest on that last point, after the event, I checked the technique with other seasons since the split came into force; the predicted last-place from this method was actually last placed 13 times out of 18, with the last-placed predictee coming second-last 4 times, and the one 'other' case was 2013-14 where Hearts - the predicted loser - were officially last due to a points deduction and only second-last in terms of game results. The most anomalous historical prediction was that it predicted Aberdeen would be the most likely to win in 2014-15, albeit with only a marginally higher percentage than Celtic - 35% to 31% - so it wasn't too sure of itself, and it did successfully predict Aberdeen coming 9th in 2011, despite everything). Anyways, statistics confirms what we all knew already - Hearts are dugshite and it's a 70% chance they're going down... What's that you say?? We've a 0.5% chance of finishing 3rd?!!! Its the hope that kills you... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 I was in the mood to suck the joy out of fitba' with some statistics so I put the last season-and-a-half into a python script, calculated an Elo-based ranking of the team strengths, and then resimulated the rest of the league 10,000 times to get a rough guess as to where the teams would end up. Here, columns are the league positions, rows are the teams, and the values are the percentage chance that a team is predicted to be in that position at the end of the season. Take this with a giant heap of salt, in that this requires some statistical assumptions (Elo parameters were just tuned to something vaguely sensible, and I fitted a probability distribution of goal differences by eyeballing a graph), and some football ones (manager changes and transfer windows might radically change a team's strength - Killie and Hearts would be the obvious top contenders for a rapid change in form). And the method is probably complete bollocks from the get-go, of course. (To keep myself honest on that last point, after the event, I checked the technique with other seasons since the split came into force; the predicted last-place from this method was actually last placed 13 times out of 18, with the last-placed predictee coming second-last 4 times, and the one 'other' case was 2013-14 where Hearts - the predicted loser - were officially last due to a points deduction and only second-last in terms of game results. The most anomalous historical prediction was that it predicted Aberdeen would be the most likely to win in 2014-15, albeit with only a marginally higher percentage than Celtic - 35% to 31% - so it wasn't too sure of itself, and it did successfully predict Aberdeen coming 9th in 2011, despite everything). Anyways, statistics confirms what we all knew already - Hearts are dugshite and it's a 70% chance they're going down...Hibs fans should start planning another relegation party. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btb Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Aim Here said: So basically predicting all the teams to finish where they are currently, although there are minor uncertainties over 3rd/4th & 8/9th. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiviLion Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 31 minutes ago, PauloPerth said: What's that you say?? We've a 0.5% chance of finishing 3rd?!!! Its the hope that kills you... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marly Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Well, as it's looking like it's Alex Dyer until the end of the season, and our board don't have a fucking clue, I'd better say hiya to this thread. We're absolutely relegation candidates now.Having watched his defeatist attitude when interviewed on Sportscene, I have to say I'm amazed at this appointment. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comrie Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 I think County will finish around 9th, though 6th to 11th looks like it could be anyone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 (edited) Here we go again... Hearts with 17 games to save themselves, or reach the top half as some of their fans on Twitter still talk about. Believe 36pts usually has you safe, with 38 keeping you out the bottom two. To be safe this season, it could reach 40+ to be clear of 10th. Suspect all eyes will be on their trip to Dingwall. A win over County, who lost to Ayr this weekend, could bring them within 3 points of 10th. Edited January 19, 2020 by RandomGuy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coventry Saint Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 You do sterling work in this thread tbf, @RandomGuy. I think I'd prefer a draw at Dingwall. It's not so late in the season that we are only looking behind us, even on gameweeks where we're hugely unlikely to take anything. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Tackle Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Based on yesterdays performance, I have a little bit more optimism about picking up more points. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, The Tackle said: Based on yesterdays performance, I have a little bit more optimism about picking up more points. A win on Wednesday, with the rest of the bottom half sides losing to top half sides, and it blows the whole thing open again. Your target should be to cut the gap to 10th to under 3pts by February, then make the most of the run of fixtures you have in that period. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comrie Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 I think if Hearts beat us on Wednesday night and we are in deep, deep trouble. Our record against Hearts is pretty awful as well- I can only remember two wins, I think? I can recall a late Richie Brittain winner in Dingwall and a 1-0 away win. That's about it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 County's next three games after Hearts on Wednesday night are all away: Celtic, Rangers, and Kilmarnock, all within a week. The GD is going to take a hammering at Celtic Park and Ibrox, and we'll likely be on at least -30 by the time of the Livingston game in Dingwall. We've had a weird season: we're obviously terrible, but have picked up enough points so far to make it look somewhat respectable, and there's been two or three really good performances. The managers get a lot of goodwill because of who they are, and I feel bad to criticise them, but they don't appear to know how to manage a team that isn't the best in the league. A lot of the criticisms levelled at them last season are still applicable this season. If County concede this season they look like downing tools or running out of ideas; last season they almost always found a way to get back into the game - that can mostly be attributed to simply being better than the opposition, but there was a fight and desire that we've rarely seen this season. I think we'll stay up, and that was always the ambition this season. But two dreadful cup campaigns, and an absolutely abysmal run of form since mid-October, have really sapped my enthusiasm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Tackle Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 24 minutes ago, yoda said: County's next three games after Hearts on Wednesday night are all away: Celtic, Rangers, and Kilmarnock, all within a week. The GD is going to take a hammering at Celtic Park and Ibrox, and we'll likely be on at least -30 by the time of the Livingston game in Dingwall. We've had a weird season: we're obviously terrible, but have picked up enough points so far to make it look somewhat respectable, and there's been two or three really good performances. The managers get a lot of goodwill because of who they are, and I feel bad to criticise them, but they don't appear to know how to manage a team that isn't the best in the league. A lot of the criticisms levelled at them last season are still applicable this season. If County concede this season they look like downing tools or running out of ideas; last season they almost always found a way to get back into the game - that can mostly be attributed to simply being better than the opposition, but there was a fight and desire that we've rarely seen this season. I think we'll stay up, and that was always the ambition this season. But two dreadful cup campaigns, and an absolutely abysmal run of form since mid-October, have really sapped my enthusiasm. I thought County would be safe following the footballing lesson you have us at Tynecastle. Still can't believe you never won that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snifter Pee Rot Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Methinks humping league one part timers at Tynie isn't quite the same as going to Dingwall on a cold Wednesday night. Could be wrong of course, but it's a must win for Herr El-Tel-del. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Tackle Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Snifter Pee Rot said: Methinks humping league one part timers at Tynie isn't quite the same as going to Dingwall on a cold Wednesday night. Could be wrong of course, but it's a must win for Herr El-Tel-del. Lols , you not got a Scottish cup game to concern yourself with. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snifter Pee Rot Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 minute ago, The Tackle said: Lols , you not got a Scottish cup game to concern yourself with. Hasn't kicked off yet last I checked. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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