General Election 2019 - AND IT’S LIVE!

[Detournement]

4 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Sounds filthy, I'm in.

After they go into coalition with Boris a Skills Wallet will cost you £9,000 p.a

The skill is staying alive with an empty wallet.

 

[BawWatchin]

20 minutes ago, Im_Rodger said:

Based on the odds I've seen from Paddy Power greater than 7 seats will be a good night on December the 12th.

0-2 Seats = VERY Bad Night.

3-6 Seats = Bad Night

7 Seats = Boring Night

8-9 Seats = Okay Night

10-13 Seats = Good Night

14+ Seats = Glorious Night.

14 seats..... glorious

Is that the bench mark for Scotland not wanting anymore referendums? Or will 0-2 seats do?

[welshbairn]

10 minutes ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said:

For anyone that thinks Channel 4 news is biased as opposed to the best at asking questions, the Keir Starmer battering a few minutes ago should be essential viewing.

I'm well impressed by the way Labour spokespeople are standing up to hard questioning, supposedly defending a Stalinist agenda. A woman was forensically examined by Andrew Neil yesterday about Labour's spending plans and how they would raise the money, and she was brilliant, under serious pressure. The Tories just fold under "So is that double counting, cash or real terms, 6 hospital refurbishments or 40 new hospitals?". 

[John Lambies Doos]

Based on the odds I've seen from Paddy Power greater than 7 seats will be a good night on December the 12th.
0-2 Seats = VERY Bad Night.
3-6 Seats = Bad Night
7 Seats = Boring Night
8-9 Seats = Okay Night
10-13 Seats = Good Night
14+ Seats = Glorious Night.

Lucky to get 6 seats imo.

My prediction is
SNP 50
Labour 1
Lib Dems 4
Cons 4

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I'm well impressed by the way Labour spokespeople are standing up to hard questioning, supposedly defending a Stalinist agenda. A woman was forensically examined by Andrew Neil yesterday about Labour's spending plans and how they would raise the money, and she was brilliant, under serious pressure. The Tories just fold under "So is that double counting, cash or real terms, 6 hospital refurbishments or 40 new hospitals?". 

The fact that the Tories never bother turning fucking up to C4 News should be a massive red light to the entire country.

They might get asked a variable of that very Weegie question "Aye, but how?", which is something those absolute c***s are obviously very uncomfortable with. The other UK news establishments tend to move onto the next question, no matter what pish they've just heard.

[doulikefish]

The tory in dover who got the whip back because they needed his vote has stood down to be replaced by his wife.

[alta-pete]

Based on the odds I've seen from Paddy Power greater than 7 seats will be a good night on December the 12th.
0-2 Seats = VERY Bad Night.
3-6 Seats = Bad Night
7 Seats = Boring Night
8-9 Seats = Okay Night
10-13 Seats = Good Night
14+ Seats = Glorious Night.

Read your previous paddy power post too. They are - perfectly fairly - a profit making company. They play to their market. Money in, recycle out on a margin.

Much like in here, nationalism is vocal, unionism is quiet.

Labour are now an irrelevance in Scotland (thanks Alec/Ed).

Lib Dem’s more relevant now as the Remain/No vote but not enough to make any real difference.

SNP is SNP, natch.

Tories are Union (55% at last count) and Leave (33% at last count). They are net gains in the current environment.

TL;DR? I’d be surprised if Tories lost seats.

[alta-pete]

Also - Gambling Thread for this pish - put the mortgage on Ian Blackford getting papped oot by the Libdems.

[dorlomin]

14 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

TL;DR? I’d be surprised if Tories lost seats.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/snp

Stirling needs a 0.15% swing. 

Labours Gordon candidate has been humped (though not discussed on here) so that will be an SNP walkover. The SNP have about 8  Tory seats within 5%, that can be made up mostly from Lab> SNP switches. I would put real serious money behind the SNP picking seats off Lab and Con, not on emotion, just on a desire to have more money at the end of it. 

The Conservatives big chances are in the midlands. Scotland will be something of a blood bath. 

[welshbairn]

13 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

Also - Gambling Thread for this pish - put the mortgage on Ian Blackford getting papped oot by the Libdems.

4/1, Blackford's 1/10 on. 

[Londonwell]

15 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

Also - Gambling Thread for this pish - put the mortgage on Ian Blackford getting papped oot by the Libdems.

What you basing this on? 

[alta-pete]

4/1, Blackford's 1/10 on. 

Hold your nose, think of the money.

[alta-pete]

Blackford got 15000ish votes vs about 21000 for liblabcon in 2017 and the Tories aren't fielding a candidate this time.

If turnout is high he might cling on, if it's low he'll probably lose the seat

Think there’s also a swing back to a more Presbyterian low key representation in the area. Think Mr Blackford is maybe a bit too high profile for his constituents.

Only an opinion of a Rangers fan on the internet. But 4/1 against? Ooft.

[Londonwell]

14 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Blackford got 15000ish votes vs about 21000 for liblabcon in 2017 and the Tories aren't fielding a candidate this time.

If turnout is high he might cling on, if it's low he'll probably lose the seat

Where are you seeing they’re not standing a candidate? I know of the ‘unionist pact’ but that doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t stand.  Locally they are saying they still plan on fielding someone but with the cut-off being next week you may well be correct.
 

Fwiw local canvassing result’s have been very good for the SNP.

Edited November 8, 2019 by Londonwell

[alta-pete]

^^^ Ian Blackford found.

[Londonwell]

1 minute ago, alta-pete said:

^^^ Ian Blackford found.

Hiya x

[welshbairn]

The Lib Dem candidate Craig Harrow looks OFTW. Here he is on the left.

Sounds like they'll play the Charles Kennedy card to the hilt.

Quote

The unpleasantness around Charles Kennedy’s last general election campaign has been widely reported and commented upon.  It caused much upset and anxiety with many of Charles’ friends and supporters.  

“I am determined to win the parliamentary seat back from the SNP in a way that Charles would be proud of. We need an uplifting, positive campaign for the Highlands and Islands. 

http://www.scotlibdems.org.uk/scot_lib_dems_unveil_craig_harrow_as_candidate_for_ross_skye_and_lochaber

Edited November 8, 2019 by welshbairn

[Londonwell]

17 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

Think there’s also a swing back to a more Presbyterian low key representation in the area. Think Mr Blackford is maybe a bit too high profile for his constituents.

Only an opinion of a Rangers fan on the internet. But 4/1 against? Ooft.

Maybe I'm being whooshed but they voted for Charles Kennedy for over 30 years and he was more high profile than Blackford for the majority of that.

[alta-pete]

Maybe I'm being whooshed but they voted for Charles Kennedy for over 30 years and he was more high profile than Blackford for the majority of that.

Again, only a dafty’s view from the internet but I thought Kennedy was more of a conscientious opinion on the establishment. Blackford is currently about the highest profile disruptor within the establishment.

[Londonwell]

9 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

Again, only a dafty’s view from the internet but I thought Kennedy was more of a conscientious opinion on the establishment. Blackford is currently about the highest profile disruptor within the establishment.

Fair enough. I know the area well and would be surprised to see Blackford go but do see the thought process that it could be tight (if there’s no Tory candidate).