General Election 2019 - AND IT’S LIVE!

[Sunrise]

1 hour ago, MixuFixit said:

Blackford got 15000ish votes vs about 21000 for liblabcon in 2017 and the Tories aren't fielding a candidate this time.

If turnout is high he might cling on, if it's low he'll probably lose the seat

Is that confirmed?

Lib Dems could run him close tbf.

[tbsouth]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

The Lib Dem candidate Craig Harrow looks OFTW. Here he is on the left.

Sounds like they'll play the Charles Kennedy card to the hilt.

http://www.scotlibdems.org.uk/scot_lib_dems_unveil_craig_harrow_as_candidate_for_ross_skye_and_lochaber

The same Charles Kennedy who also turned a blind eye to Cyril Smith.....like the rest before him?

[alta-pete]

The same Charles Kennedy who also turned a blind eye to Cyril Smith.....like the rest before him?

Good luck with that as a relevant and positive election message.

[DA Baracus]

4 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

Skills wallets
 

It sounds like something from The Thick Of It.

[welshbairn]

2 hours ago, Londonwell said:

Where are you seeing they’re not standing a candidate? I know of the ‘unionist pact’ but that doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t stand.  Locally they are saying they still plan on fielding someone but with the cut-off being next week you may well be correct.
 

Fwiw local canvassing result’s have been very good for the SNP.

Quote

The only candidate who can beat "five jobs" Blackford, and give Ross, Skye and Lochaber an effective, constructive and respected voice at Westminster, is the Scottish Conservative candidate, Gavin Berkenheger.

https://www.highlandconservatives.co.uk/news/running-scared-why-snp-and-libdems-fear-strong-scottish-conservative-challenge-ross-skye-and

[Benjamin_Nevis]

7 hours ago, welshbairn said:

https://www.highlandconservatives.co.uk/news/running-scared-why-snp-and-libdems-fear-strong-scottish-conservative-challenge-ross-skye-and

Ooft. The actual state of that article 

[Detournement]

9 hours ago, Londonwell said:

Maybe I'm being whooshed but they voted for Charles Kennedy for over 30 years and he was more high profile than Blackford for the majority of that.

When I've got a day off during the week Blackford is on TV a hell of a lot. He is one of the most prominent interviewees for the news broadcasters plus he speaks third in the debates. 

 

[Stellaboz]

I know this is a shock to people like you but the majority of people simply don't share your hard left views on the country or the Tories.
It's only a surprise to you because you post in an echo chamber here.

People like me?

[Detournement]

15 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

A lib dem candidate with their finger on the pulse of everyday folk's concerns
 

There is some unbelievable stuff in there. She does an EU version of Tebbit and suggests unhappy Northerners move to Germany to earn 50 Euros an hour (no poverty in Germany apparently). 

She also doesn't seem to consider that being an MP might not gel with spending two months on the slopes. 

[John Lambies Doos]

Not a chance Blackford will lose his seat

[LongTimeLurker]

28 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Not a chance Blackford will lose his seat

You were convinced the only show in town would have more than 50 last time. Best to wait for the debates to see how much traction Swinson, Corbyn and Johnson get.  As things stand they look like a weak set of opponents this time around.

[welshbairn]

Swinson should be avoiding the debates like the plague. 

[Im_Rodger]

Not a chance Blackford will lose his seat

You said the same 2 years ago except with Angus Robertson.

[Miguel Sanchez]

1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Not a chance Blackford will lose his seat

Someone get a hold of him and tell him to pack his bags.

[Granny Danger]

25 minutes ago, Miguel Sanchez said:

Someone get a hold of him and tell him to pack his bags.

Aye it’s the kiss of death.  I’m hoping he doesn’t say United will win the league.

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/snp
Stirling needs a 0.15% swing. 
Labours Gordon candidate has been humped (though not discussed on here) so that will be an SNP walkover. The SNP have about 8  Tory seats within 5%, that can be made up mostly from Lab> SNP switches. I would put real serious money behind the SNP picking seats off Lab and Con, not on emotion, just on a desire to have more money at the end of it. 
The Conservatives big chances are in the midlands. Scotland will be something of a blood bath. 

Agree with this.

My prediction.

Labour - 1 - Ian Murray
Lib Dems - 5 - think they might gain NE Fife due to Tory voters switching - Edinburgh West will also be tight but they'll hold on due to Tory voters again
Cons - 4 (the 3 borders seats and Aberdeenshire West)
SNP - 49 (6 Labour seats, 9 Conservatives - one loss to the Lib Dems)

[Londonwell]

4 hours ago, Detournement said:

When I've got a day off during the week Blackford is on TV a hell of a lot. He is one of the most prominent interviewees for the news broadcasters plus he speaks third in the debates. 

 

Thanks for that razor sharp insight. 

[DAFC.]

Anywhere between 49-52 seats for SNP. Quite easily. Can’t see them having 48 or lower. Does that mean they lost the election and don’t have a mandate for indyref2, again?

[dorlomin]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-candidate-charlie-elphicke-quits-to-fight-sexual-assault-allegations-a4282761.html

Yet another Tory stands down. This one to defend against sexual assault allegations, his wife replaces him as the candidate. 

Off the top of my head three sitting Labour MPs not endorsed, one candidate removed (Bassettlaw, this one will run for a bit), and three candidates stood down to be replaced, and the whole Keith Vaz thing yet to be resolved.

The Tories have had the "keep your knicker up" guy from Norfolk stood down, this one, while  Alun Cairns is still standing (allegedly knew of his aides plan to sabotage a rape trial). 

It may be worth a thread of its own to try to keep up with all the resignations. 

(Oh Buzzfeed have another allegation but there are so many unconfirmed ones at the moment I guess it should only be shared if it makes the real media)

[Detournement]

It seems a bit unfair that all these no mark candidates have to stand down but Liam Fox, Pritti Patel and Micheal Fabricant (amongst others) waltz on despite worse scandals.