Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Herman Hessian]

just over 100 years ago, almost identical American bluster and ignorance leads to thousands of avoidable deaths

the tragedy is, it's not just the naysayers who carry the can - as would be the case if there was any justice in the world

100 years ago, 'Spanish flu' shut down Philadelphia – and wiped out thousands

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

I'm just going off the simple 1 in 1000 death rate, this wave will kill between 30/40k in UK, that's taking us up near the 60% threshold, all governments can't be that lucky that their lockdown measure coincided with the magical 60%, I just don't believe that sort of luck happens in such matters too often, Sweden will already have almost their entire population covered with those numbers, it would be more of a possibility if Sweden hadn't taken quite a few of the measures like the rest of us. 

 

But you're pulling that 30/40k figure out of the air.

Applying the numbers atm to Sweden would show 1.1m infections from a population of just over 10 million. That isn't entirely unrealistic.

[ayrmad]

1 minute ago, MixuFixit said:

Doesn't matter given the overall price. The stupid thing was getting the English chief medical officer to wreck his credibility saying we were days away from being able to test people and ease restrictions

It does matter, it tends to show how ill prepared we were. 

[Todd_is_God]

The alternative view @ayrmad is that, if the number of infections is 85x greater than recorded, lockdowns will have been much later in the curve than anticipated and therefore less effective at limiting the spread

Edited April 17, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[effeffsee_the2nd]

6 minutes ago, Tight John McVeigh is a tit said:

 

 

The government were aware on the 24th January and in an interview (Patel), stated they were preparing and had all in hand.

The epidemiologist who have been listened to of late were warning before the 24th and being roundly ignored.

Clearly at that point they weren’t taking this serious and just placating.

The WHO first announced the existence circa 2nd January (in fairness, only a handful of countries took action, but also declared it an international emergency on the 30th January.

Complacency and an ‘out of sight, out of mind attitude’ has aided the development.

I would say it’s fair the say ‘months’.

That can be considered a little unfair, but you would hope at government level they would truly weigh up these things especially if they are going to release public statements to say they are taking action and prepared.

Many poor countries (vastly populated), have big enough international air networks to cause issues (India, Indonesia, Philippines, Pakistan, etc) and the lower figures are as more to do with non existent health care capabilities and reporting and thus being widely ignored.

The above countries have definitely got considerably more deaths and infections than being reported.

 

Aye, was never totally buying this " poor countries don't travel " pish. if as few as 1% of Indians can afford air travel that's over 10 millions people,  if 2 % of nigerians can afford air travel that's 4 million. I doubt 4 million scots got on a plane last year.

Those countries healthcare systems ( costly and out the reach of many)  & corruption poor data collection etc will explain their lack of cases

[ayrmad]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

But you're pulling that 30/40k figure out of the air.

Applying the numbers atm to Sweden would show 1.1m infections from a population of just over 10 million. That isn't entirely unrealistic.

We will have 30/40k, we'll be around 20k at the moment. 

As for Sweden, was getting that muddled up with Stockholm who are well on their way already. 

 

[ayrmad]

4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The alternative view @ayrmad is that, if thr number of infections is 85x greater than recorded, lockdowns will have been much later in the curve than anticipated and therefore less effective at limiting the spread

I hope those figures are correct as I've a fairly good chance of already having my shot without noticing. 

Our government weren't interested in limiting the spread, stopping the NHS going into meltdown was their only goal, it's repeated almost everyday either here or down south. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by ayrmad

[Lex]

Just watching news at ten.

Those Chinese figures. If their blatant and industrial scale cover up wasn’t so tragic it would be funny.

[dirty dingus]

I think there is a lot of wishful thinking going on with people who have been feeling a bit poorly saying yip that's me had it, the fluffy version of Covid19. Surely a priority is an antibody test for all healthcare workers. That would be a better guide to what's going on.

[welshbairn]

4 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

I think there is a lot of wishful thinking going on with people who have been feeling a bit poorly saying yip that's me had it, the fluffy version of Covid19. Surely a priority is an antibody test for all healthcare workers. That would be a better guide to what's going on.

All we need is one that works reliably, and then in quantity.

[DA Baracus]

4 hours ago, coprolite said:

I find that highly offensive. 

Using an apostrophe for a plural ffs

 

So many folk do it on here. I think in some cases it's a typing error but in most it seems that an astonishingly high number of people think that almost any word that ends with an 's' requires an apostrophe.

[Lex]

I think there is a lot of wishful thinking going on with people who have been feeling a bit poorly saying yip that's me had it, the fluffy version of Covid19. Surely a priority is an antibody test for all healthcare workers. That would be a better guide to what's going on.

My missus Mum is a frontline NHS worker in South Lanarkshire.

She had a cough on the 2nd of April, tested positive on the 6th, 7 days of self isolation and back to work on the 14th.

[Forest_Fifer]

It may be the first reported death in the UK was the 5th March but I believe it was way before that. The main man, Dr Hilary, said yesterday that coronavirus was first in the UK at the end of Jan, I refuse to believe it was 5 weeks from then until the first death 

First death in England was before 1st March, that's as far back as the daily stats go.

[Thereisalight..]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

They're talking about Covid19 being mainly brought over by Italians, Brits, Spanish etc, not old men in Scotland dying from pneumonia in the winter with multiple underlying conditions. Happened to my Dad too as it happens a couple of years ago, used to be referred to as the old man's friend when they'd been through enough. 

Sadly not just “old men”, my Dad had pneumonia in Oct a snow it never fully cleared and he died in Feb aged 65. 

[dirty dingus]

6 minutes ago, Lex said:

 

My missus Mum is a frontline NHS worker in South Lanarkshire.

She had a cough on the 2nd of April, tested positive on the 6th, 7 days of self isolation and back to work on the 14th.

 

That's the thing now she's tested positive and thankfully came through it but now not knowing if she has required antibodies to be 100% clear is the problem. My sis and her man were both under the weather early April, both nurses. My sis said she lost her sense of smell and felt lightheaded/spaced out but no respiratory problems for 3-4 days. Neither tested but both were on vacation(at home) at the time. 

[Fullerene]

51 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

Aye, was never totally buying this " poor countries don't travel " pish. if as few as 1% of Indians can afford air travel that's over 10 millions people,  if 2 % of nigerians can afford air travel that's 4 million. I doubt 4 million scots got on a plane last year.

Those countries healthcare systems ( costly and out the reach of many)  & corruption poor data collection etc will explain their lack of cases

Edinburgh airport had around 15 million passengers last year.  Glasgow about 10 million.  Aberdeen about 3 million.

However I take your point that a tiny sliver of the population of India or Pakistan or Nigeria or Indonesia is still an an enormous number.

[Tight minge]

Those countries healthcare systems ( costly and out the reach of many)  & corruption poor data collection etc will explain their lack of cases

The Indonesian government have released 600,000IDR (circa £30) for the next three months to every household. The vast majority of that money is going into the hip pocket of the local councillors.

Most rural hospitals have no equipment at all. Usually a few sparse beds and a couple of oxygen tanks. So even if you could afford to go to hospital, there is no chance of any treatment. Hospitals tend to turn people away as they can do nothing for them. All this adds up to people suffering at home and relying on ‘juju’ as there is no other option.

Something like Covid-19 hitting a kampung could cause major devastation and it will never be recorded. Countries like Indonesia, India, Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria will not return massive numbers as they just can’t. The death rates in these places would most definitely be higher due to malnutrition and many underlying issues.

In normal circumstances something as serious as this would be supported by the international community, but with this global pandemic, they are on their own.

And ‘we’ have it tough as we have to stay at home and exercise social distancing.

[NotThePars]

3 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

Quite often predictive typing on the phone does it and I cba to fix it when it happens

And also anyone that cares that much about policing grammar is a VL.

[GAD]

In India they are claiming it's only the Muslims that have got it and spreading it anyway. No chance you'll ever know how many people have got it in that country.

[Detournement]

7 hours ago, dirty dingus said:

I think there is a lot of wishful thinking going on with people who have been feeling a bit poorly saying yip that's me had it, the fluffy version of Covid19. Surely a priority is an antibody test for all healthcare workers. That would be a better guide to what's going on.

There's a French naval vessel where over 1000 sailors have tested posituve but only 500 hundred are showing even mild symptoms.

From memory it was something like 40 needed medical treatment and 1 was in intensive care.