Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Michael W said:

I can also see a few current key workers in shops etc being rewarded for all this by being automated out a job under the guise of protecting staff by reducing interactions with the public. 

There are quite a lot of changes that will come out of this, some of them behavioural rather than anything else, that may take a long time to recede, if indeed they ever do. Saw an interesting Bloomberg article on Wuhan following the lockdown being lifted - basically restaurants are empty even though they are open and people allowed in. Paranoia about catching the virus will take a very long time to fade. 

I saw an piece on Euronews and they were talking about waiters serving with masks and gloves on, tables spaced out and additional cleaning, spraying and disinfecting going on. Personally I wouldn't find that in the least bit relaxing or enjoyable so I can understand why people aren't rushing back if that's the way it's going to be.

[Bairnardo]

I saw an piece on Euronews and they were talking about waiters serving with masks and gloves on, tables spaced out and additional cleaning, spraying and disinfecting going on. Personally I wouldn't find that in the least bit relaxing or enjoyable so I can understand why people aren't rushing back if that's the way it's going to be.

See if its out the house, without two roaster weans and someone else is cooking good food for me, il be there in a hazmat suit getting my dinner rammed through a gas mask into my mouth if need be

 

[true_rover]

 
Does anyone know if the ‘extra’ deaths picked up by the ONS from March were assigned to the running tally of total deaths in the UK? The 15k or so?
 
As I recall Scotland added the ‘extra’ deaths to the tally when the NRS took over the official reporting from health boards but I’m not sure if this has happened for the entire country.
 
Either way I suspect the current tally of people who have died with Covid in the UK is at least 25,000, and quite possibly over 30k. There’s a definite under reporting at the moment, missing out effectively everyone who didn’t die in a hospital, although whether that‘s consistent with international reporting I’ve no idea.

No they won't add them in, but the weekly updates from the ONS will keep coming out every Tuesday morning. Although, given the bank holiday on the 10th there is a risk that the figures that come out this week will be understated as these are a measure of deaths registered rather than occurred - it can take up to 5 days to do so and, in normal circumstances, nerds an appointment (I don't know if they are using an alternative method currently)

[Granny Danger]

As things return to normality everyone will be looking for a second spike.  If it doesn’t happen or if it’s not particularly severe this will lead to people returning to largely BC behaviour.

 

[Shandon Par]

9 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

As things return to normality everyone will be looking for a second spike.  If it doesn’t happen or if it’s not particularly severe this will lead to people returning to largely BC behaviour.

 

Sounds good to me:

[coprolite]

2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

As things return to normality everyone will be looking for a second spike.  If it doesn’t happen or if it’s not particularly severe this will lead to people returning to largely BC behaviour.

 

You seem to be suggesting that the British public might respond in a rational way to statistical evidence. It seems unlikely.  I think that's probably right for some people. 

I think there will probably be a large minority of people who will be permanently neurotic after this and will crack when people go near them. 

There will also probably be a large minority of people who think that a partial lifting if restrictions is the "all-clear" being sounded and will revert to fuckwittery irrespective of a second spike. 

Given the number of cretins that i've seen coughing in shops without even trying to cover their mouths, I think the second lot have the numbers

[Jacksgranda]

21 minutes ago, hk blues said:

Re. breakdown by race -  Not yet, but I read they are going to start.  I'm not sure if it will be retrospective - if not, then a lot of valuable data will be lost.  

It's going to have to be retrospective if it's going to be of any use. But as our death total isn't accurate to start with what use will it be?

[hk blues]

2 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

It's going to have to be retrospective if it's going to be of any use. But as our death total isn't accurate to start with what use will it be?

Yep.

That said, even if the starting point int terms of the number of deaths is wrong, probably the ratio per race will be close enough.  Depends what they want to know.

[NotThePars]

2 hours ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

Loki/Darren McGarvey is absolutely brutal tbf.

His book is boring and undermines its own thesis but he's been much better on Twitter recently now that he's actually talking about class consciousness instead of doing a sub-par Spiked 'war on wokeness'

2 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

I enjoyed Poverty Safari while also finding Loki to be quite a disagreable person.

The title is class given nearly everyone praising it in the blurb is doing their own poverty safari by reading it. 

[Dunfermline Don]

 
Half a million English live in Scotland.
Lovely people of course, but perhaps just a tad politically naive.

My wife is English and would never vote Tory she also voted remain. She was a no in 2014 but would probably vote yes now.

[Granny Danger]

9 minutes ago, coprolite said:

You seem to be suggesting that the British public might respond in a rational way to statistical evidence. It seems unlikely.  I think that's probably right for some people. 

I think there will probably be a large minority of people who will be permanently neurotic after this and will crack when people go near them. 

There will also probably be a large minority of people who think that a partial lifting if restrictions is the "all-clear" being sounded and will revert to fuckwittery irrespective of a second spike. 

Given the number of cretins that i've seen coughing in shops without even trying to cover their mouths, I think the second lot have the numbers

I can understand your cynicism but don’t share it.  I suppose all of us are being informed by our own experiences.  Where I live the overwhelming majority of people appear to be respecting the rules in relation to staying in wherever possible and social distancing when out.  It looks like only a tiny minority are doing otherwise though, not surprisingly, they are the ones getting the attention.

I think there will be a large number of folk who will continue to be wary post lockdown.  ‘Permanently neurotic’ might look good in a post but it’s pure hyperbole.

There is still insufficient evidence to show how widespread the virus has been, how many folk have had in and displayed little or to symptoms and the level of immunity of those who have unknowingly suffered from it.  All these things will affect the likelihood and severity of a second spike and how that will impact upon people’s behaviour.

 

[ICTChris]

Here’s a report on the NHS response from the NHS Providers Group. The report is only about England and Wales.

https://nhsproviders.org/media/689450/confronting-coronavirus-in-the-nhs.pdf

[jagfox]

1 hour ago, Jacksgranda said:

What % of black/asians are front line medical staff?

Are Covid-19 deaths broken down by profession and race?

https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/workforce-and-business/workforce-diversity/nhs-workforce/latest#by-ethnicity

[jagfox]

47 minutes ago, Shandon Par said:

Sounds good to me:

Turtlenardo

[NotThePars]

Just now, MixuFixit said:

I'm sure the title came from him labelling that Glasgow Effect artist as essentially doing this. He even self references that now he's got the misery lit bit out the way he can say what he actually wants to.

I know I read it in February but the irony of a book called Poverty Safari in the 2010s carrying praise on the cover from Nick Cohen and JK Rowling is delicious. 

[Jacksgranda]

47 minutes ago, hk blues said:

Yep.

That said, even if the starting point int terms of the number of deaths is wrong, probably the ratio per race will be close enough.  Depends what they want to know.

How many black/asians are in care homes? Asians, afaik, are very family orientated and live in multigenerational family units, rather than pack them off to old folks' homes/care homes. But then again, we don't know how many are dying at home/in care homes do we? And what they have died of.

But maybe partial figures are better than nothing.

[NotThePars]

2 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

I've no idea if authors can choose whose recommendation goes on the front cover & if memory serves he did get some cash off Rowling to write it but that's as much about her laundering her reputation as whether there are decent points to be understood from the book imo.

I just find his book doesn't say anything new and what it does say is said better elsewhere. I'm not surprised that the LRB reviewed it alongside Hillbilly Elegy because they're fundamentally the same book as much as a man from Glasgow and the deep south of the USA can sing from the same hymn sheet. His recent tweeting is far better than what he's saying in PS anyway.

[hk blues]

1 minute ago, Jacksgranda said:

How many black/asians are in care homes? Asians, afaik, are very family orientated and live in multigenerational family units, rather than pack them off to old folks' homes/care homes. But then again, we don't know how many are dying at home/in care homes do we? And what they have died of.

But maybe partial figures are better than nothing.

I guess that's what I meant by adding it depends what they want the numbers for.  If they want to carry out any in-depth analysis, well, forget it.  If they simply want to see if the number of deaths for BAME is disproportionate, then it may work. 

[ICTJohnboy]

37 minutes ago, Dunfermline Don said:

My wife is English and would never vote Tory she also voted remain. She was a no in 2014 but would probably vote yes now.

 

Sounds like your wife is pretty exceptional, mate!

I have an English partner, who has always voted Tory. The same could be said for my ex wife  who is also English.  Both would say it was something to do with the way they were brought up, and the areas they were brought up in.

I don't really understand....

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

we don't know how many are dying at home/in care homes do we?

The Scottish figures break down into hospital / care home / home

How accurate they are is a different question