Tight minge Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 Disney in Orlando is reopening today if anybody fancies it Disney in Hong Kong is closing today (as is Ocean Park) and restrictions on gatherings and eating out. Disney only reopened a month ago once HK’s lockdown was lifted, but an increase of unconnected cases is forcing the government back the way.Same could happen in Singapore where there has been an increase in unconnected cases since moving out their lockdown a month ago. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Orton Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, ICTChris said: The guy who wrote the report specifically says it isn’t a prediction but is a possibility. SAGE said back in March that they expected countries who locked down hard to experience a significant second wave later in the year. This was before the U.K. went into lockdown. Very poor reporting yet again from the BBC, sky etc,fire in a headline, scare the shit out of people then add in at the bottom this is if several things happen. A doomsday scenario if you will. Oh and its just a possibility. Irresponsible reporting once again from the media. The NHS may be overwhelmed in winter, well there is a new scenario that hasn't happened since last year and the year before. Arguably thrre is more capacity now with the temp facilities and the awful measure of putting regular services on hold. If there is to be a significant second wave that sees hospitals overwhelmed then the effects on those awaiting procedures will cause more deaths than anything else. If there is a big wave can governments afford another strict lockdown, so many jobs gone already, mostly low paid earners, the damage to those families would be horrendous. Better we all wear masks, don't act like fannies and it seems hope for the best. I'm not sure the mental health of people could take another significant period of lockdown tbh. It has been hard enough during the decent weather but in the middle of winter I dread to think of the ramifications from that. Edited July 14, 2020 by Tynierose 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, ICTChris said: The guy who wrote the report specifically says it isn’t a prediction but is a possibility. SAGE said back in March that they expected countries who locked down hard to experience a significant second wave later in the year. This was before the U.K. went into lockdown. We'll be alright then. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said: We'll be alright then. Given how poorly the whole thing was handled in the beginning, i struggle to see any scenario where it could be five times worse, even without considering people are more aware of how to reduce the risk. Edited July 14, 2020 by Todd_is_God 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paco Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 I don’t expect another lockdown albeit I do think things will get worse through the winter. We know a lot more about the virus now. Younger people are mostly absolutely fine, only very small numbers need medical care. Shockingly it’s bad if we expose old or sick people to it. Another completely unforeseen revelation is that big events and crowded bars/restaurants/trains are dangerous. Who’d have thought it? I expect measures to come into place - along the lines of the stop/start of hospitality, suspension of crowds at sport events, the reintroduction of stricter border control, work from home if you can and presumably restrictions on social interactions. But social distancing, face masks, protection of care homes and shielding of the vulnerable, combined with Test & Protect identifying local clusters in schools/workplaces/particular areas, should ultimately be all that’s required. If we look at Spain for example not letting kids out the house for three months, with what we know now that was completely pointless. The most significant problems the UK should face is a) what to do with the hospitality industry and b) preventing the NHS becoming the Covid Health Service. The answer to a) is relatively simple if the UK Gov has the will and means (a longer-term furlough, suspension of rents and loan payments) but simultaneously protecting the sick/vulnerable/elderly who are inevitably in hospital anyway while dealing with large numbers of patients with a contagious virus in the same building is a very, very hard thing to do. I fear we’ll end up where we are now with dozens of key services abandoned out of fear.A second national lockdown is a failure of policy. It was necessary first time, it shouldn’t be needed again. Probably. 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve_Wilkos Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 Where is best to get a mask from? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 We can't afford to shut down hospitality over winter, furlough or no furlough. The job losses from the loss of the festive period would be devastating, and the long term impact of that much worse than anything Covid can throw at us. You say yourself that young people are mostly unaffected, and that we know more about the virus than before. We have to find a way to keep things open. If masks, 1m distancing and perspex screens allow a middle ground then so be it. The 5 year average number of flu deaths in the UK is apparantly 17,000 (with quite a large range between 28,000 & 1,000). The measures to limit covid transmission coupled with a bigger uptake in flu vaccinations should help reduce this number, lessening the impact of covid. If we get through winter with 17,000 ish combined flu & covid-19 deaths then that would, statistically, be perfectly normal. And should be communicated as such. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 Shutting down hospitality is however inevitable to prevent the spread of the disease. The young will be fine mostly, yes, but what happens when they go and see granny and their aunt with a myriad of health conditions at Christmas and are asymptomatic, but carrying the virus? And of course people travel over Christmas and you risk a wide spread of the virus. We should give the hospitality industry every opportunity to open albeit with restrictions in place where necessary. However if a cluster becomes apparent, they need to be shut down to curtail the spread, with other localised measures if necessary too. I'd prefer we didn't need to go down that route, but we cannot have the virus spreading all over the UK again the way it did last time. You can control a cluster; a country-wide outbreak cannot be controlled and will need a disastrous second lockdown. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 How the f**k is it even remotely possible for a second wave to be worse unless all measures are abandoned, everyone forgets the last few months, the steroid recently found to reduce death rates by a third suddenly disappears and track and trace completely fails?Presumably this is the "Do nothing" part of the risk assessment, but since there will be measures already in place that remain all the way through winter aswell as public consciousness, the "Do nothing" part is totally irrelevant in reporting to the public terms. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D.A.F.C Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 My worry is that we seem to be on the path to reopening everything and getting large crowds at pretty much the start of winter.As said though a large amount of deaths will be a total failure from the government and local planning.A quick total lockdown round a large area of several countries and a total ban on travel would probably be the most effective but we will be driven by the (money) science again probably.Really hope there's no repeat but can't see why it won't happen when we have such buffoons running things down south. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 Bbc news is literally a red-top. Sensationalist headline to grab readers. That's all. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 27 minutes ago, Steve_Wilkos said: Where is best to get a mask from? I've got a load of the standard paper disposable medical ones from Boots, but my sister just bought me some washable cloth ones and they're a lot comfier to wear. https://www.ffsbshop.co.uk/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve_Wilkos Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 I've got a load of the standard paper disposable medical ones from Boots, but my sister just bought me some washable cloth ones and they're a lot comfier to wear. https://www.ffsbshop.co.uk/Many thanks 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 There is no chance of an economic recovery with distancing and masks. We are looking at an absolute disaster of a decade with endless austerity. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 20 minutes ago, Michael W said: Shutting down hospitality is however inevitable to prevent the spread of the disease. The young will be fine mostly, yes, but what happens when they go and see granny and their aunt with a myriad of health conditions at Christmas and are asymptomatic, but carrying the virus? And of course people travel over Christmas and you risk a wide spread of the virus. What happens when they do that any other year when ill? We need perspective - respiratory deaths in general increase in winter. If the government choose to report covid deaths daily this year (and place restrictions on people again on the back of them), then this time they must do so with a reference to how this compares to a normal year (particularly with seasonal flu, which, as far as I can see, never has it's death figures published). The "any is too many" line needs a sense of relativity. It's believed transmission from asymotomatic carriers is low. You would hope that maintaining a little distance from at risk people, or maybe even wearing a mask when visiting, would limit the possibility of spread to close to zero. Is that ideal? No. But if it allows society to function then it is a small price to pay. A symptomatic person visiting would have themselves to blame. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 There is no chance of an economic recovery with distancing and masks. We are looking at an absolute disaster of a decade with endless austerity. And without it what do you think will happen? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 Kilmarnock fans don't need masks - 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: 20 minutes ago, Detournement said: There is no chance of an economic recovery with distancing and masks. We are looking at an absolute disaster of a decade with endless austerity. And without it what do you think will happen? Well we already know that without masks the virus went down to less than one death a day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Detournement said: Well we already know that without masks the virus went down to less than one death a day. Do you think the majority of the country sitting locked inside had anything to do with that? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 1 minute ago, NewBornBairn said: Do you think the majority of the country sitting locked inside had anything to do with that? Most people weren't sitting locked inside during June. https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/jul/13/deaths-special-needs-children-kent-raise-concerns-over-school-closures This is just a iota of the impact of lockdown. We have chosen to protect over 60s who can easily be shielded in their own homes or care homes at the expense of the young. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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