Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Melanius Mullarkey]

4 minutes ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

She seems like a terrifying combination of Matt Le Tissier and the wives of Kenny Miller and Ryan Jack

She really ticks all the boxes doesn’t she. 

[dirty dingus]

FFS she's a Wid, give her some breathing room (preferably with a mask on)

Edit- she's a wid not as she tries to mobilise the gammons to take on the crack commandoes of the covid inspectors.

 

@KateShemirani

·

Sep 9

 

Just in time for the 19th at Trafalgar Sq. let’s see what the Veterans

 

, the Serving military

 

, the Doormen, The men, The People... think of that one. Bring it on Civilians in Uniform.

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by dirty dingus

[mizfit]

Surely the government who are monitoring us would rather we not wear masks to make it easier to track?

[effeffsee_the2nd]

FFS she's a Wid, give her some breathing room (preferably with a mask on)
Edit- she's a wid not as she tries to mobilise the gammons to take on the crack commandoes of the covid inspectors.   @KateShemirani · Sep 9   Just in time for the 19th at Trafalgar Sq. let’s see what the Veterans   , the Serving military   , the Doormen, The men, ... think of that one. Bring it on Civilians in Uniform.  

Shirley she means ra peepul?

[Guest bernardblack]

16,000 people in attendance at the NFL last night

[Steven W]

5 minutes ago, bernardblack said:

16,000 people in attendance at the NFL last night

Caught a little of Lens v PSG last night.

A fair sized crowd at that. A lot more than 300 anyway.....

[renton]

Interesting article here: preprint, so not peer reviewed yet. Though the authors are hardly quacks.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.01.20185876v1.full.pdf+html

You can preview the pdf to read the full paper. Basically they use a different type of modelling technique to quickly examine many different outcomes. Their central thesis is that traditional epidemiological models imply far too much homogeneity across the four usual categories (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected  Recovered) and that even small heterogenities in categories creates different outcomes (i.e. not all infected transmit at the same rate for example)

In their conclusions they note that effective herd immunity is possible with a far smaller percentage of the population than might previously be thought, and that the key to pushing down virus transmission so that the second wave geenrates far fewer cases and deaths is primarily in an efficient track and trace system.

One for @Todd_is_God

Edited September 11, 2020 by renton

[Marshmallo]

17 minutes ago, bernardblack said:

16,000 people in attendance at the NFL last night

13,000 at the University of Miami game in a 65,000 seater stadium last night too

[welshbairn]

26 minutes ago, renton said:

Interesting article here: preprint, so not peer reviewed yet. Though the authors are hardly quacks.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.01.20185876v1.full.pdf+html

You can preview the pdf to read the full paper. Basically they use a different type of modelling technique to quickly examine many different outcomes. Their central thesis is that traditional epidemiological models imply far too much homogeneity across the four usual categories (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected  Recovered) and that even small heterogenities in categories creates different outcomes (i.e. not all infected transmit at the same rate for example)

In their conclusions they note that effective herd immunity is possible with a far smaller percentage of the population than might previously be thought, and that the key to pushing down virus transmission so that the second wave geenrates far fewer cases and deaths is primarily in an efficient track and trace system.

One for @Todd_is_God

Backs up the strategy of social distancing and whack-a-mole local lockdowns. 

Quote

The recurrent theme above is the danger of committing to one particular model or conception of
the epidemiological process. In other fields—dealing with population dynamics—Bayesian model
comparison is used to identify the best structure and parameterisation of models28-30 known as
structure learning31,32. Figure 5 offers an example of Bayesian model comparison in epidemiology,
evincing very strong evidence for heterogeneity in responses to viral infection—and a synergistic
role for social distancing and herd immunity.
Identifying the right epidemiological model has considerable public health and economic
implications. While SARSCo-V2 may not be eradicated, model selection suggests that any second
wave will be much smaller than other models have projected, and the virus will become endemic
rather than epidemic. The size of a second wave may depend sensitively on the efficacy of FTTIS
programmes and the rate of loss of immunity. Recent evidence suggests T-cell immunity may be
more important for longer term immunity with circulating SARS-CoV-2-specific CD8+ and CD4+
T cells identified in 70% and 100% of COVID-19 convalescent patients, respectively25.
Furthermore, 90% of people who seroconvert make detectible neutralizing antibody responses
that are stable for at least 3 months56. If the above dynamic causal model is broadly correct, future
national lockdowns may be unnecessary. As an endemic and potentially fatal virus, especially in
elderly people and those with underlying conditions, attention to the details of FTTIS and
shielding becomes all the more important. This emphasises the need for clear criteria for when
and how to implement local lockdowns in ‘hotspot’ areas.
In summary, lockdown and social distancing have undoubtedly restricted the transmission of the
virus. Model comparison suggests that these approaches remain an essential component of
pandemic control, particularly at current levels of infections in the UK. However, extending the
notion of ‘herd immunity’—to include seronegative individuals with lower susceptibility and/or
lower risk of transmission—engenders an immune subpopulation that can change over time and
country. The implicit immunity may reduce mortality and lower the risk of a second wave to a
greater extent than predicted under many epidemiological models. On this view, herd immunity
subsumes people who are not susceptible to infection or, if they are, are unlikely to be infectious
or seroconvert; noting that SARS-CoV-2 can induce virus-specific T-cell responses without
seroconversion. This reconciles the apparent disparity between reports of new cases, mortality
rates and the low seroprevalence observed empirically. Crucially, Bayesian model comparison
confirms that there is very strong evidence for the heterogeneity that underwrites this kind of
herd immunity.
Put simply, an effective herd immunity—that works hand-in-hand appropriate public health and
local lockdown measures—requires less than 20% seroprevalence. This seroprevalence has
already been reached in many countries and is sufficient to preclude a traumatic second wave,
even under pessimistic assumptions about loss of humoral immunity endowed by antibodies.

 

[renton]

Just now, welshbairn said:

Backs up the strategy of social distancing and whack-a-mole local lockdowns. 

 

Indeed. 

Edited September 11, 2020 by renton

[Billy Jean King]

13,000 at the University of Miami game in a 65,000 seater stadium last night too

Given it's the states I'm stunned the stadiums weren't packed with kiss cam working overtime !

 

There is ZERO to be learned in a positive way from the response to this in the USA.

 

[Donathan]

Boris to address the 1922 committee at 5:30pm. The men in grey suits are reportedly furious about the latest curbs on individual freedom

[Guest]

13 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

13 hours ago, WATTOO said:

Nothing the SG have announced today is in any way surprising or outrageous, it is in fact exactly what any rational person would have expected, given the current situation with the virus here and how it's behaving throughout Europe.
Irrespective of what owners of soft play businesses or failed comedians with Unionist views think, it's all sensible decisions which are being made and exactly in line with the strategies being employed by virtually every Government throughout the World.
In a nutshell, if mistakes are being made then every nation across the globe and all their scientific and medical advisers are making the same mistakes but again I'd be more inclined to trust their insight as opposed to some internet no marks with a political agenda.

So we should all stop discussing/having views on the biggest crisis of our lifetimes? (Except Sergeant Wilson, auld c**t was at the Somme)

No, not as long as they're informed and educated views as opposed to baseless ramblings.

[vikingTON]

23 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Boris to address the 1922 committee at 5:30pm. The men in grey suits are reportedly furious about the latest curbs on individual freedom

I'm sure that some of them are but the wider issue here is that the UK Government has been making sweeping decisions by fiat with barely a passing nod to the Parliament whose beloved sovereignty and control has been 'taken back' from the EU and dumped immediately in the nearest bin. The emergency emergency excuse from March should no longer fly: if Johnson now wants to make gatherings of seven people illegal from Monday then his government should have to debate and pass a bill to do so. 

[Thereisalight..]

1 hour ago, bernardblack said:

16,000 people in attendance at the NFL last night

Saw that. Yet we can’t allow fans to go to an Auchinleck Talbot friendly at Irvine. Fcking madness 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

Saw that. Yet we can’t allow fans to go to an Auchinleck Talbot friendly at Irvine. Fcking madness 

The USA are the ones out of step not the other way around. It's a country with a high proportion of morons being run by a madman so maybe not the best example of doing what's best for the general population.

Only time will tell of course.

[Thereisalight..]

2 minutes ago, WATTOO said:

The USA are the ones out of step not the other way around. It's a country with a high proportion of morons being run by a madman so maybe not the best example of doing what's best for the general population.

Only time will tell of course.

Of course the US has went about covid in a “strange way”, but I say kudos to them for getting a good number of fans back. From the pics I saw social distancing was happening. A few of countries have had fans back in good numbers for a while now, Russia, Holland etc

[Billy Jean King]

Saw that. Yet we can’t allow fans to go to an Auchinleck Talbot friendly at Irvine. Fcking madness 

Not as mad as not having all NHS services back up to speed. Need to get things into perspective.

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, Billy Jean King said:

14 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

Saw that. Yet we can’t allow fans to go to an Auchinleck Talbot friendly at Irvine. Fcking madness 

Not as mad as not having all NHS services back up to speed. Need to get things into perspective.

They could, of course, do both...

[Billy Jean King]

Are these additional measures making a jot of difference in Glasgow ? Seems it's not stopping the numbers rising.