Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[effeffsee_the2nd]

18 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

Paris air show in June cancelled. Organisers were not given any assurances measures will have been removed that would allow the show to take place as normal. Isle of Man TT races fell last week for much the same reasons. Seems very premature to me.

I thought that too but when you think of the amount of work and planning that must go into them and the cost involved, someone has to make the call , a  30 % chance of cancelation or something like that versus normal years  would probably considered too high to bother laying the groundwork.  

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

Paris air show in June cancelled. Organisers were not given any assurances measures will have been removed that would allow the show to take place as normal. Isle of Man TT races fell last week for much the same reasons. Seems very premature to me.

Cancelling the Isle of Man TT will singlehandedly counterbalance the excess death rate caused by COVID. Douglas mortuary will be quieter than usual though.

[Michael W]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55175483

What is the point in these articles, exactly? 

[No_Problemo]

Looking at the stats, South Ayrshire along with several other areas should be moving to tier two - however I will be amazed if that happens. 

[NorthernLights]

The Welsh are having an absolute minter...

Wales 'only part of UK without falling coronavirus rates'

[s_dog]

On 06/12/2020 at 11:45, Flure said:

When announcing the Level 4 Protection Measures being introduced to some areas, the First Minister said this would end on 11 December. Not it would be reviewed. She said it would end.

Which is pretty much what I said wasn't it? The lockdown ends on Dec 11th, the only question is what level the areas that are no longer in level 4 will drop to. Despite some daft BBC Scotland journalist try to get the Health Secretary to say otherwise (she didn't need a lot of help to sound confused to be fair).
 

23 hours ago, virginton said:

The lockdown is absolutely trashing the economy and if you think that we should keep it to prevent a handful of avoidable deaths then we'd also be doing it every fucking year for flu season. And we'd be bankrupt.

There is no place in public policy for such weepy emotional judgements.

Well if just making up stuff and proclaiming what I think it is how you want to make your point, I'll leave you to it 

[RiG]

29 minutes ago, No_Problemo said:

Looking at the stats, South Ayrshire along with several other areas should be moving to tier two - however I will be amazed if that happens. 

Not sure what that's based on but based on the current "case rate" in South Ayrshire is nowhere near the levels previously seen for areas to go down to Tier 2.

According to this site SA is currently noting 102 cases per 100,000 people and based on what we've seen before local authorities really need to be below 75 cases per 100,000 before Tier 2 is on the cards.

Then again, that would require the Scottish Government to be consistent in their decision making...

[s_dog]

20 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

'People know people that have died' is as stupid an argument as 'I don't know anyone that's died' when it comes to making decisions about the restrictions.

Considering it was in reply to someone saying coronavirus is harmless to the vast majority, except coffin dodgers and a handful of 50-year-old fatties and so the restrictions should be lifted, not really stupid at all.

[No_Problemo]

5 minutes ago, RiG said:

Not sure what that's based on but based on the current "case rate" in South Ayrshire is nowhere near the levels previously seen for areas to go down to Tier 2.

According to this site SA is currently noting 102 cases per 100,000 people and based on what we've seen before local authorities really need to be below 75 cases per 100,000 before Tier 2 is on the cards.

Then again, that would require the Scottish Government to be consistent in their decision making...

Based on what we’ve seen before, yes. However what we’ve seen before isn’t remotely what was set out at the beginning of the tier system!

[s_dog]

It's a few days out of date now (Dec 2), but @TravellingTabby does a good graphic showing the different levels and where places are at in terms of cases rising or falling.

 

[101]

55 minutes ago, Michael W said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55175483

What is the point in these articles, exactly? 

I hate needles, I can't even watch them being used in films but to not get a vaccine because you hate them is mental behaviour and shouldn't be in the mainstream press.

[Granny Danger]

5 minutes ago, s_dog said:

It's a few days out of date now (Dec 2), but @TravellingTabby does a good graphic showing the different levels and where places are at in terms of cases rising or falling.

 

Am I reading this correctly?  Only one place in tier 3 worse than the last week and nowhere in tier 4 worse.

[Gordon EF]

13 minutes ago, s_dog said:

Considering it was in reply to someone saying coronavirus is harmless to the vast majority, except coffin dodgers and a handful of 50-year-old fatties and so the restrictions should be lifted, not really stupid at all.

Yeah, it's still stupid.

For example, "the vast majority of people will never be attacked by sharks" isn't countered by saying "well there was a story on BBC News this morning about a guy being attacked by a shark in Australia".

[Glen Sannox]

What are the chances of Edinburgh going down a tier? Missing the pub something terrible!

[RH33]

1 hour ago, Michael W said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55175483

What is the point in these articles, exactly? 

To highlight stupid names. 

[101]

33 minutes ago, Glen Sannox said:

What are the chances of Edinburgh going down a tier? Missing the pub something terrible!

Before Christmas? No chance.

[Michael W]

58 minutes ago, 101 said:

I hate needles, I can't even watch them being used in films but to not get a vaccine because you hate them is mental behaviour and shouldn't be in the mainstream press.

Exactly. I'm fine with them in my arm etc, but I absolutely hate them at dentist. Would never go that far however. 

Recall the vaccinations at school where quite a few people were in the horrors about it, but looking the other way did the job. 

I don't get the point of the article at all - is it for sympathy, or is the implication that we should have another way of doing this? Either way it adds nothing of value. 

Edited December 7, 2020 by Michael W

[Steven W]

https://news.sky.com/story/andhra-pradesh-mystery-illness-kills-one-and-leaves-200-in-hospital-in-india-12154221

Not sure whether to start another thread for this

[superbigal]

On 30/11/2020 at 15:23, superbigal said:

 

 

As ScotGov ignored my recommendations last Tuesday, It is time for another overall review and look at each council with  changes coming tomorrow.  We can look back in time from 7 day figures to November 13th and compare with, 7 day figures to 4th December.   Basically progress for all councils in the last documented 21 days. The data 13th November was the day before all the moves to Tier 4 etc.  So those councils now have about 14 days of data in the new higher tier 4 restrictions.

Overall cases per 100K were 141.5 in Scotland and are now 98.5. That is a decrease overall of 30.39% in a period of 21 days,  of which 14 days were in higher restrictions.   

My observations would say that the restrictions do appear to be working. with hugely more progress in Tier 4 areas than previously when in Tier 3.  Also it is quite clear the populated areas in Tier 3 are struggling to reduce their numbers. 

Conclusion Tier 4 worked even though the School Bashers may deny it.  

 

I now have the last 21 days of Data for each Council.

Start with the tier 4 Councils and move down to Tier 1    My comments  Bold if significant

East Ayrshire  Tier 4   172.1 to 127.0    Decrease  26.20%    Worth pointing out hardly any reduction in latest 7 days.

East Dunbartonshire  Tier 4   224.6 to 104.0    Decrease 53.69%   Good guys but Tier 3 for now.

East Renfrewshire  Tier4  197.8 to 137.1  Decrease 30.68%     Bang on the national average for decrease. Tier 3 for sure.

Glasgow City  Tier 4   275.6 to 150.2   Decrease 45.50%   I believe this does prove Tier 4 restrictions work as Glasgow stubbornly refused to move for many weeks.   Tier 3

North Lanarkshire  Tier 4  237.6 to 147.9   Decrease  37.75%   More good progress to Tier 3

Renfrewshire  Tier 4  241.8 to 158.0    Decrease  34.65%    A huge decrease in last week. Finally brains engaged. Tier 3

South Ayrshire  Tier 4  159.0 to 94.1   Decrease  40.81%    Another huge decrease week. Tier 3

South Lanarkshire  Tier 4   229.3 to 123.5  Decrease  46.14%   Another where the penny has finally dropped. Huge drop last 7 days.  Tier 3

Stirling Tier 4  167.7 to 80.7   Decrease   51.87%        Another with a great week. Great chance of double promotion to Tier 2

West Dunbartonshire  Tier 4   181.0 to 76.5  Decrease 57.73%    Another real chance of Tier 4 to Tier 2

West Lothian   Tier 4  158.4 to 108.7   Decrease 31.37%   Real good week.  Tier 3

Angus Tier 3   84.3 to 56.8   Decrease 32.62%    Nailed on promotion back to Tier 2  Apart from Brechin City to Highland League.

City Of Edinburgh  Tier 3  86.9 to 68.4  Decrease 21.28%     Much slower decrease last 7 days. Will it deny them Tier 2  Should not .    

Clackmannanshire  Tier 3    99.0 to 211.5  increase  113.63 %    Although it looks bad the population is only circa 45K and cases is 109 people.  Should stay tier 3 but if anyone was getting Tier 4 it would be them. Sauchie appears to be the epicentre of bad behaviour just now.

Dundee City  Tier 3   138.0 to 107.8   Decrease 21.88%  Dundee had a really bad last 7 days so guaranteed to now stay Tier 3

Falkirk   Tier 3     88.3 to 66.5  Decrease 24.68%    Bad week of increases. If no Tier 2 last week then hard to see this week.

Fife Tier 3   143.0 to 103.3  Decrease 27.76%   Poor week so like Dundee stay in Tier 3

Inverclyde  Tier 3   101.5 to 54.0   Decrease 46.79    This council seems to go up and down like a whores nickers. Best decrease in last week of all councils.  Unsure how this will go.

Midlothian  Tier 3   58.4 to 86.5   Increase 48.11%   Why defeat was snatched from the jaws of victory. Still rising bad week again. 

Perth & Kinross Tier 3   88.8 to 92.8  Increase 4.50%  Tory farmers still having too many harvesting parties. Stay Tier 3

North Ayrshire  Tier 3  139.5  to 142.5  Increase 2.15%    A prime council that shows the effectiveness of Tier 4 over Tier 3, as all their neighbours hugely out perform these bad guys.

Aberdeen City Tier 2   55.5 to 74.3    Increase 33.87%     A better last 7 days should keep them in Tier 2 just.

Aberdeenshire Tier 2   53.2 to 80.4    Increase 51.12 %    A better last 7 days should keep them in Tier 2 just.

Argyll & Bute  Tier 2    31.4 to 165.4   Increase 426.6%   Eyewatering cases total of 123 in Garelochhead. Is this dodgy sailors ?   Lock them all on a submarine and sink it.

Dumfries & Galloway  Tier 2   51.1 to 22.8  Decrease 55.38%    These teuchters should surely now join their highland friends in tier 1

East Lothian   Tier 2  60.7 to 67.2   Increase 10.71%   Tier 2 freedom boosting numbers ?

Scottish Borders  Tier 2  61.5 to 34.6  Decrease 43.74%   Now England out of lockdown this is nailed on Tier 1 promotion.

Highland  Tier 1    20.4 to 10.6 Decrease 48.03%  I really wonder what you need to do to get to the holy grail. These people behave even when in tier 1.  Must go to Tier 0

Moray   Tier 1  32.4 to 11.5  Decrease 64.50%    Same comments as Highlands

Na h-Eileanan Siar  Tier 1   22.5 to 15.0 Decrease 33.33%    Basically was 6 case and now 4   get them in the holy grail

Orkney Tier 1   4.5 to 4.5 No change   1 Case get them in Tier 0

Shetlands Tier 1   0 to 4.4  (Was 0 cases and now 1 cases.  Get them in Tier 0)

Edited December 7, 2020 by superbigal

[Glen Sannox]

17 minutes ago, 101 said:

Before Christmas? No chance.

I feared that.