Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Left Back]

7 minutes ago, Glen Sannox said:

Hancock may indeed have won a raffle, but it’s not as big a raffle as the one that Gavin Williamson won. 

Isn’t Williamson a former Whip?  Knowing where some bodies are buried will get you a job.

[djchapsticks]

20 minutes ago, s_dog said:

I get that you'd like that 'end result' to happen, I think most of us would settle for that right now. But is this the right way to go about it, as wasn't it exactly what happened in Spring/Summer last year, and look at us now? By doing that aren't you just repeating the same actions, but with the hope that vaccinations alone will lead to a radically different outcome.  Not even the scientists and other so-called experts know with any great certainty what is going to happen in the months ahead while we wait for the vaccination programme to be completed. The vaccinations will stop so many people becoming seriously ill, but will it work long-term, have any affect on transmission, will the virus mutate further to become resistant to vaccines, etc, etc. It's just all so unknown, how can anyone be certain of anything right now? 

It was their sole rationale behind restrictions all of last year.

Literally 'we need to do this until a vaccine is available and rolled out'.

So forgive me for saying that yes, the vaccines must lead to a radically different outcome. Because if it they themselves reckon it doesn't, then what were they doing fucking about with their thumbs up their collective arses all of 2020 when people were questioning what their plan B would be if a vaccine didn't happen or didn't work?

Edited January 21, 2021 by djchapsticks

[Billy Jean King]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-55704312
Lockdown in NI until Easter.

Easter ? The article say 5 March.

[Elixir]

Ah, Patrick Vallance... another person who wants to pretend that their original position didn't exist, or that it isn't still inevitable now anyway.

 

 

[Distant Doonhamer]

2 hours ago, superbigal said:

Todays summary

Mr Swinney says the latest estimate for the R number in Scotland is around one and has probably fallen in the last week.

The deputy first minister says the current lockdown restrictions are helping to stabilise the R number.

Thank you John for the 1st nearer to the truth statement on R in the last week.  My feeble calculations say it is likely between 0.8-0.9.

Now accessed the other home nations for the cases per 100K latest.   These are a little behind the Scottish cases.  England 497.3,   Wales 304.3, Northern Ireland 384.3

Scotland peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan    So our peak is still lower than where the other nations currently stand.

From 11th to 17th January we were down to  207.3

Todays figure for 12th Jan to 18th Jan is 200.4   Another decent single Day drop of 3.33%. Infections have dropped every day since the  aforementioned peak.  Total drop is now 33.62%   Also now not a single Council in one of the Level 4 Indicators of over 300 cases per 100K as Glasgow & North Lanarkshire drop below the magic number.   Other big cities Aberdeen & Dundee close to dropping below 200.  Edinburgh on a different planet and going back in time would be screaming for Level 2.

Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

Glasgow City   309.3 to 293.6 

North Lanarkshire   305.8 to 293.5 

Renfrewshire 290.9 to 290.3    

Clackmannanshire 281.3 to 287.2  Been climbing for 4 days but pretty low population so will not take much to turn corner.

Inverclyde  275.1 to 271.2

North Ayrshire  276.1 to 267.2

East Ayrshire  2265.6 to 262.3

South Lanarkshire   255.8 to 247.4

Dumfries & Galloway  263.3 to 243.9  

East Dunbartonshire     243.9 to 235.6

Falkirk   210.7 to 230.6  

West Dunbartonshire    242.9 to 229.4

South Ayrshire  224.7 to 214.9

Aberdeen City  230.9 to 212.1

Dundee City 200.9 to 202.3

East Renfrewshire  178.0 to 169.6

Western Isles  164.7 to 168.4   Barra and South Uist now over 1000.  Looks to have peaked which is good.  37 Cases in total over period.

Angus  151.5 to 163.5

Perth & Kinross  157.9 to 159.3

Stirling   151.8 to 153.9

Fife  160.1 to 152.9

Moray  122.1 to 133.6 

West Lothian 138.7 to 132.7

Scottish  Borders  135.9 to 128.1

City Of Edinburgh  133.4 to 127.6   

Aberdeenshire  141.3 to 127.5

East Lothian   123.3 to 123.3

Midlothian  104.9 to 119.0

Highlands 122.1 to 111.1 Invergordon now dropping rapidly which is good news.

Shetland Islands  91.6 to 96.0

Argyll & Bute  67.5 to 55.9

Orkney Island  31.4 to 35.9

Scot Gov publication today giving the R number as 0.8-1.1

R Number

Edited January 21, 2021 by Distant Doonhamer

[djchapsticks]

22 minutes ago, s_dog said:

I get that you'd like that 'end result' to happen, I think most of us would settle for that right now. But is this the right way to go about it, as wasn't it exactly what happened in Spring/Summer last year, and look at us now? By doing that aren't you just repeating the same actions, but with the hope that vaccinations alone will lead to a radically different outcome.  Not even the scientists and other so-called experts know with any great certainty what is going to happen in the months ahead while we wait for the vaccination programme to be completed. The vaccinations will stop so many people becoming seriously ill, but will it work long-term, have any affect on transmission, will the virus mutate further to become resistant to vaccines, etc, etc. It's just all so unknown, how can anyone be certain of anything right now? 

A novel Coronavirus coming from nowhere is a massive shock to the system that the greatest virologists on the planet weren't prepared for.

Mutations, though, are not a surprise and fully expected. A mutated virus is still the same virus. It would not derail vaccines to the point of starting again from scratch or costing several months of work.

[Arch Stanton]

2 hours ago, superbigal said:

This is apparently the truth behind Pfizer delays.  Not very nice of them if 100% true.

Pfizer scaled back vaccine supply after learning about ‘bonus doses’

 

 

 

 

 

Pharmaceutical company Pfizer reduced the number of deliveries after hearing that a sixth “bonus dose” could be extracted from a vial, according to Belgium’s federal vaccine task force.

Last weekend, Pfizer announced that it wanted to scale up and would therefore temporarily be able to supply fewer vaccines, but that was not the only reason for the sudden delay of the vaccinations among hospital staff, of which the government was informed on Tuesday afternoon.

The reduction in supply is linked to the fact that six doses can now be taken from a Pfizer vial instead of five, according to Sabine Stordeur (UCL) of the federal vaccination task force.

She told Le Soir that the contract between Pfizer and Belgium is calculated on the number of doses, and not on the number of vials.

This means that now that the company is aware of the fact that Belgium – and other countries as well – could almost consistently get six doses, it scaled back deliveries.

“Coming from 92 plateaus with 195 vials, we are now down to 76 plateaus,” Stordeur said. “We knew that there was a chance that they would adjust that. And they did. It is still a commercial company. It was a mistake to think we could win a dose this way.”

“We were counting the vials, but Pfizer counted the doses according to the contract,” Caroline Leys, spokesperson for the task force, confirmed to De Standaard.

Belgian virologist Marc Van Ranst also reacted to the news on Twitter, asking if he could think that the reduced delivery was “not very decent” of the company.

In the meantime, the federal medicines agency FAMHP has also indicated that Pfizer has officially changed the information on the package to say that six rather than five doses can be taken from a vial.

“That applies to the whole of Europe, those reports have been adapted,” said spokesperson Ann Eeckhout. “This is nothing new for us, but it does have an impact on the communication of the figures. That is precisely why we communicate in the number of doses supplied and not in vials. At least we were able to take advantage of the six doses instead of five for a short time.”

Pfor pfuck's sake.

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

Someone needs to tell Devi the nights are drawing out ffs.

The dark winter armageddon talk is shit and it can't hold water much longer. It's a really negative message that seems designed to keep mood and optimism suppressed. I can already get out a walk in daylight after work.

It's almost as if she is sitting on a stack of vacuous pish articles, and didn't bother to check the template for this one.

[Billy Jean King]

Completely agree. We're in a shitty situation right now but one which, in my view, is immeasurably better than last March.

I remember last summer when cases were in single figures and we (Scotland that is) didn't record a death in weeks. I remember thinking (probably a bit foolishly, looking back) that this was almost done and dusted with a slow return to normality on the horizon and that there would be a vaccine at some point just to keep the virus under control.

Obviously that didn't turn out to be the case. Like you say, cases are already falling so deaths and hospital admissions should follow. I'd expect numbers to massively decrease again as summer kicks in with the key difference this year being that we do have a vaccine to hopefully keep it that way. Even if cases do creep up by next winter, that shouldn't matter a jot if the vaccine does its key job and prevents most people becoming seriously ill.

We'll probably have another 2-3 months of utter shite and days where we wonder what the point is but after that I hope things will start to massively improve.

I'd expect daily new infections to be a thing of the past well before next winter. Once the population is vaccinated they quickly become irrelevant unless something has gone massively wrong.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

"I think the people in this country have had enough of experts."

[Elixir]

Even if there wasn't a vaccine, the pandemic would still eventually end. It would just take a lot more death and drawn out suffering.

[vikingTON]

34 minutes ago, s_dog said:

I get that you'd like that 'end result' to happen, I think most of us would settle for that right now. But is this the right way to go about it, as wasn't it exactly what happened in Spring/Summer last year, and look at us now? By doing that aren't you just repeating the same actions, but with the hope that vaccinations alone will lead to a radically different outcome.  

Quote

It's just all so unknown, how can anyone be certain of anything right now? 

Well there's nothing to stop you and the other knicker-wetters from shielding indefinitely until you get the certainty!!!111!!! that you crave so much.

I, like any rational human being though, will be taking my chances with the three vaccinations already on the go within twelve months: which is quite literally one of the greatest achievements in the history of medicine. 

[djchapsticks]

7 minutes ago, virginton said:

 

I, like any rational human being though, will be taking my chances with the three vaccinations already on the go within twelve months: which is quite literally one of the greatest achievements in the history of medicine. 

As a first go, no less. In decades to come it will be remembered as a game changer.

Regardless of the current vaccine efficacy, it will only continue to improve from here. It's easily forgettable that whilst the current first generation of vaccines are ramping up, there are constant R&D programmes improving these existing vaccines all the time.

Russia alone this week has reported 100% efficacy on small sample field tests of it's second generation Sputnik vaccine.

Edit - apologies, it's not a second generation Sputnik. It's another vaccine called EpiVacCorona, developed by the Vector institute who developed Sputnik.

Edited January 21, 2021 by djchapsticks

[welshbairn]

17 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

51 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

Completely agree. We're in a shitty situation right now but one which, in my view, is immeasurably better than last March.

I remember last summer when cases were in single figures and we (Scotland that is) didn't record a death in weeks. I remember thinking (probably a bit foolishly, looking back) that this was almost done and dusted with a slow return to normality on the horizon and that there would be a vaccine at some point just to keep the virus under control.

Obviously that didn't turn out to be the case. Like you say, cases are already falling so deaths and hospital admissions should follow. I'd expect numbers to massively decrease again as summer kicks in with the key difference this year being that we do have a vaccine to hopefully keep it that way. Even if cases do creep up by next winter, that shouldn't matter a jot if the vaccine does its key job and prevents most people becoming seriously ill.

We'll probably have another 2-3 months of utter shite and days where we wonder what the point is but after that I hope things will start to massively improve.

I'd expect daily new infections to be a thing of the past well before next winter. Once the population is vaccinated they quickly become irrelevant unless something has gone massively wrong.

I don't really care too much about daily infections, they'll stop counting them when hospitals start getting filled up with the normal bed blockers instead. 

Edited January 21, 2021 by welshbairn

[Steven W]

45 minutes ago, Aladdin said:

Let's be honest, neither the Scottish or Westminster governments have a fucking clue how to roadmap out of the lockdown apart from the vaccines.

Leaving aside the prevalence of the virus, our track and trace systems don't work. The tiered approach of local restrictions, as they were applied last year, dont work. Blaming the public hasn't worked.

If they are going to pin everything on the vaccine then I would expect to see projections on which restrictions can be lifted once X number of people have been vaccinated. That nothing has been produced to date is pretty fucking poor to say the least and does nothing to increase compliance with the restrictions.

Agree completely. 

No doubt SG will mimic Northern Ireland in due course and extend lockdown into March.

You're spot on that neither Holyrood or Westminster have a clue how to get out of this. It's just easier to keep dishing out restrictions.

[Billy Jean King]

The change in tone of Bozo is stark. It's as if he has been rewired over the Christmas break. From Christmas celebrations to lockdown until Easter (he even didn't rule out summer) is some turnaround. Perhaps he has finally realised his actions have serious consequences and that Christmas was a regal f**k up.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, No_Problemo said:

So you can’t visit a care home after having two vaccinations despite care homes being prioritised and residents given two doses before those visiting them. Makes sense. 

Yes, I was thinking that myself as surely the care home residents have already been vaccinated prior to the punters who are actually visiting them ??

As for the Vallance article, there's nothing new there and he's just reiterating worst case stuff that we already knew. I also think we need to understand that these people that are dominating the media headlines at the moment are all medical Doctors, public health professionals and virologists so nothing they are saying is surprising, however Government policy is dictated by more than them.

I'm pretty sure that the Economic and Business advisors will have a rather different take on matters, including the potential timelines.

[Elixir]

2 hours ago, latapythelegend said:

Need to remember though there are thousands who never thought they would be so desperate for something as simple as a deep of breath of air.

- Around 9 million people die every year of hunger and hunger-related diseases. This is more than from AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis combined.

- A child dies from hunger every 10 seconds

- Poor nutrition and hunger is responsible for the death of 3.1 million children a year. That’s nearly half of all deaths in children under the age of 5. The children die because their bodies lack basic nutrients.

But of course, you didn't really care about any of the above before, did you? Now that people are dying on the news from the 'rona, however, it seems it's time for a moral crusade.

1 hour ago, madwullie said:

Yeah I'm not saying he's not been hysterical. He has. But this snobbery towards people genuinely well qualified on their fields has really got my goat during this whole pandemic. 

And basically what people do is rely on some expert's opinion of some other expert I'm sure I could find an article or two slagging off the guy above, but for whatever reason you've chosen to accept what he says as gospel. Fair enough, but it's a bit far for you to call someone qualified in epidemiology who studied at, and was employed by Harvard and at 37 sits on some pretty prestigious boards, a fraud imo. Presumably you agree with him that people are too scared of covid. 

I believe anyone who is a pragmatist and realist, like Balloux is - and I consider myself to be - would find it hard to take Ding's hysterical, alarmist communications seriously.

He is also a 'visiting scientist in Harvard's nutrition department'. Balloux is an epidemiologist and director of UCL's Genetics Institute.

55 minutes ago, s_dog said:

I get that you'd like that 'end result' to happen, I think most of us would settle for that right now. But is this the right way to go about it, as wasn't it exactly what happened in Spring/Summer last year, and look at us now? By doing that aren't you just repeating the same actions, but with the hope that vaccinations alone will lead to a radically different outcome.  Not even the scientists and other so-called experts know with any great certainty what is going to happen in the months ahead while we wait for the vaccination programme to be completed. The vaccinations will stop so many people becoming seriously ill, but will it work long-term, have any affect on transmission, will the virus mutate further to become resistant to vaccines, etc, etc. It's just all so unknown, how can anyone be certain of anything right now? 

No matter what the Devi's of the world say, SARS-CoV-2 is destined to eventually fade into the background as just another of some 200 respiratory viruses that are in endemic circulation in the human population.

[MuckleMoo]

Agree completely. 
No doubt SG will mimic Northern Ireland in due course and extend lockdown into March.
You're spot on that neither Holyrood or Westminster have a clue how to get out of this. It's just easier to keep dishing out restrictions.

Not having a go but what other options are available other than restrictions? Hospitals and ICU's are at breaking point and are predicted to be so for the next few weeks at least. Until hospital numbers become manageable and vaccinations get ramped up to significantly higher numbers than they are at the moment I don't see what other choice the government's have

We fucked up our chance of getting on top of this in the summer when the infection rate was manageable. Instead of caution we had the ridiculous eat out to help out scheme which undoubtedly contributed to an increase in infections. That coupled with a broken test and trace system and ludicrous tier system that done nothing to prevent the spread has led us to where we are now.

I would much prefer a cautious approach getting out of this lockdown. The public are rightly fucked off, the government's have to get it right this time as a third sustained lockdown will be unforceable. If having to remain in this lockdown for a few more months means never having to do it again then I can live with that

[effeffsee_the2nd]

Not having a go but what other options are available other than restrictions? Hospitals and ICU's are at breaking point and are predicted to be so for the next few weeks at least. Until hospital numbers become manageable and vaccinations get ramped up to significantly higher numbers than they are at the moment I don't see what other choice the government's have

The option is to keep doin what they’re doing by reviewing every few weeks