Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Forest_Fifer]

Excellent video by Potholer54, debunking some of the common lies about PCR testing. As a bonus, Julia Hartley-Brewer gets a kicking as well.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I can see arseholes like Farage trying to get behind some sort of anti-vax bandwagon (as long as he can get a grift out of it).

The most effective way to deal with anti-vax cretins is to remove them from social media. They are almost always desperate attention-seekers and not being able to post shite on Facebook would see them at their GPs within half an hour begging to be jagged.

The problem is they still give publicity to oxygen thieving anti-vaxxers like Jo Bisset of UsForThem.

The Hootsman had an angry parents front page last week based almost entirely on the mewlings of this fucking arsehole.

[Ad Lib]

3 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

No its exactly because of hypothetical variants, thats exactly what clownshoes has been saying.

No it isn’t.

At most, the closest either Government has got towards saying this is that they are seeing emerging variants that appear to be more transmissible or deadly and/or potentially more vaccine resistant, and that they need more data on them, and a clearer picture as to the (effectiveness of) the response of other countries to containing those variants before they give a hard deadline for when, and in what respects, travel restrictions might be relaxed.

3 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

We already have fantastic research and results coming from israel that the vaccines are massively effective.

Against the variants that are in Israel.

3 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

We also know that the ‘kent’ variant is widely predicted to be the dominant strain of the virus and that it is kept at bay very well by vaccines. 

Yes but we know that there are variants in other countries that have similar properties to the Kent variant (hence we have imposed more stringent restrictions on travel from e.g. Brazil and Portugal) and we don’t yet know whether those would be kept at bay by the existing suite of vaccines.

The concern of the government is that a new variant might be (a) more transmissible (b) provide more resistance to the existing vaccines and (c) come here in sufficient numbers that test and trace and rules on isolation doesn’t adequately identify and contain potential cases, and that community transmission therefore ramps up again. That’s literally the whole point of the quarantine measures.

[Jamie_B]

3 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

We're on course at the moment for around 24th April, however if we get back to 50k first jag rate (it's around 30k at the moment), then that date will shorten.  We're still on course for all adults jagged at least once by start of June.

The timetable of April 15 for over 50s and July 31 for all adult first doses doesn't seem particularly ambitious even if supplies only ever get back to what they were a week or two ago.

If we did 30k a day - what we're doing now on the lower supply - up until March 15 we'd be at about 2.1m total doses delivered (across first and second). If we then did 50k a day for the next 30 days - not even getting back to what the actual capacity was earlier this month - we'd hit roughly 3.6m doses delivered by April 15. The JCVI list in Scotland suggests there are about 3.3m over 50 and/or with an underlying condition under that age. There is almost certainly some double counting in there, and even hitting 90% of those people would be an incredible achievement. You likely only need just over 3m doses to have done everyone that is willing and able to get a jag on the JCVI list.

Obviously we'll need to be well in to second doses by that stage, but even without actually getting back up to what was full speed two weeks ago we could make April 15.

Today's Scottish Mail on Sunday suggests we could have 100k doses a day available by some point next month. Even if we take that estimate as being quite a bit too high and coming early, and it ends up being 80k a day available as of April 1 we'd be well able to get back to over 60k a day actually going into arms. Given we were doing 60k a day when the clientele were the over 70s attending in the worst snow for 10 years - and that we are still early in the mass vaccination programme and they'll only get more efficient as they go - you have to assume we can actually get more people in the door than the 60k we managed earlier in February.

Many assumptions involved in the above - but I think they're fairly conservative given what we know at the moment and what's being said going forward. If it does come to pass that we hit all over 50s by April 15 *and* the supply keeps up there's no reason we can't have hit all over 16s/18s by the end of June while also getting second doses out there to everyone who needs them as and when they hit the 12 week gap.

[Todd_is_God]

9 minutes ago, Jamie_Beatson said:

Today's Scottish Mail on Sunday suggests we could have 100k doses a day available by some point next month. 

That seems absolutely impossible.

400k per week is as good as it's going to get. Considering that is 2m in 5 weeks, however, that's a signifcant pace.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[coprolite]

2 hours ago, 101 said:

Not if we don't renew trident. I genuinely can't believe it appears we are going to renew it without any second thought. We could also sell the House of Commons, after the pandemic is over we can't just go for austerity again well if that's their plan I hope Scotland can disappear into the sunset leaving them far behind.

We could always just drop the pretence that the deficit was debt funded rather than an a monetary expansion. >3/4 of gilts were acquired by the BoE. 

https://www.omfif.org/2021/01/the-bank-of-england-nearly-financed-the-deficit-does-it-matter/

[Burnieman]

5 minutes ago, Jamie_Beatson said:

The timetable of April 15 for over 50s and July 31 for all adult first doses doesn't seem particularly ambitious even if supplies only ever get back to what they were a week or two ago.

If we did 30k a day - what we're doing now on the lower supply - up until March 15 we'd be at about 2.1m total doses delivered (across first and second). If we then did 50k a day for the next 30 days - not even getting back to what the actual capacity was earlier this month - we'd hit roughly 3.6m doses delivered by April 15. The JCVI list in Scotland suggests there are about 3.3m over 50 and/or with an underlying condition under that age. There is almost certainly some double counting in there, and even hitting 90% of those people would be an incredible achievement. You likely only need just over 3m doses to have done everyone that is willing and able to get a jag on the JCVI list.

Obviously we'll need to be well in to second doses by that stage, but even without actually getting back up to what was full speed two weeks ago we could make April 15.

Today's Scottish Mail on Sunday suggests we could have 100k doses a day available by some point next month. Even if we take that estimate as being quite a bit too high and coming early, and it ends up being 80k a day available as of April 1 we'd be well able to get back to over 60k a day actually going into arms. Given we were doing 60k a day when the clientele were the over 70s attending in the worst snow for 10 years - and that we are still early in the mass vaccination programme and they'll only get more efficient as they go - you have to assume we can actually get more people in the door than the 60k we managed earlier in February.

Many assumptions involved in the above - but I think they're fairly conservative given what we know at the moment and what's being said going forward. If it does come to pass that we hit all over 50s by April 15 *and* the supply keeps up there's no reason we can't have hit all over 16s/18s by the end of June while also getting second doses out there to everyone who needs them as and when they hit the 12 week gap.

80k daily doses would have a significant impact on timelines.

[Jamie_B]

Just now, Todd_is_God said:

That seems absolutely impossible

I mean I thought it was likely a massive overestimate, however that list is now from about six weeks ago and who knows how things like delivery schedules have moved since then.

Even at that level of supply 15/4 should be feasible.

[madwullie]

24 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

No its exactly because of hypothetical variants, thats exactly what clownshoes has been saying. We already have fantastic research and results coming from israel that the vaccines are massively effective. We also know that the ‘kent’ variant is widely predicted to be the dominant strain of the virus and that it is kept at bay very well by vaccines. 

Israel are exclusively using the Pfizer vaccine. We're not. 

[Sergeant Wilson]

6 minutes ago, coprolite said:

We could always just drop the pretence that the deficit was debt funded rather than an a monetary expansion. >3/4 of gilts were acquired by the BoE. 

https://www.omfif.org/2021/01/the-bank-of-england-nearly-financed-the-deficit-does-it-matter/

Let's assume I'm as thick as shite (not a huge leap). What does that mean?

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, Jamie_Beatson said:

I mean I thought it was likely a massive overestimate, however that list is now from about six weeks ago and who knows how things like delivery schedules have moved since then.

Even at that level of supply 15/4 should be feasible.

You're right, i'd be surprised if it has increased, though, especially to the levels required for 700k or 560k per week.

[PWL]

1 minute ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Let's assume I'm as thick as shite (not a huge leap). What does that mean?

Think of it as a borrowing the cash from your mum and dad. Gov are borrowing from B of E. 

[Sergeant Wilson]

3 minutes ago, PWL said:

Think of it as a borrowing the cash from your mum and dad. Gov are borrowing from B of E. 

Wasn't there a school of thought like that the last time ie austerity wasn't needed as no-one really wanted the money (deficit) paid back? Is this the same?

[vikingTON]

12 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Israel are exclusively using the Pfizer vaccine. We're not. 

And that's a counter argument to... what exactly?

The number of folk who think that we've just invented the wheel by giving people vaccine and Just Can't Possibly Know what the results will be is laughable. 

[coprolite]

7 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Let's assume I'm as thick as shite (not a huge leap). What does that mean?

Everyone knows the government has had to spend more because of covid. 

The governmant has borrowed something like £320bn.

But it has borrowed £270bn of that from the bank of England, which is owned by the government. The bank of England has "printed" that money. They create it out of thin air and don't borrow it. 

So if you were to view the government and the Bank of England as one unified entity (which in substance they are), the government has printed most of the money they have spent on covid and not borrowed it from outside lenders. 

[101]

1 minute ago, coprolite said:

Everyone knows the government has had to spend more because of covid. 

The governmant has borrowed something like £320bn.

But it has borrowed £270bn of that from the bank of England, which is owned by the government. The bank of England has "printed" that money. They create it out of thin air and don't borrow it. 

So if you were to view the government and the Bank of England as one unified entity (which in substance they are), the government has printed most of the money they have spent on covid and not borrowed it from outside lenders. 

Printing money to give to you pals seems like a cracking idea.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

27 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

That seems absolutely impossible.

400k per week is as good as it's going to get. Considering that is 2m in 5 weeks, however, that's a signifcant pace.

Whats the forecast for delivery of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine? Given its a single dose we could absolutely fly through that and bump the numbers up. 

[101]

2 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Whats the forecast for delivery of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine? Given its a single dose we could absolutely fly through that and bump the numbers up. 

We have 30 million on order not sure when they "come on stream" though. Tbh if it's July before they are here might be better diverting them to another country as I'm not sure you could have a AZ Vax followed by one that's a single dose.

[madwullie]

15 minutes ago, virginton said:

And that's a counter argument to... what exactly?

The number of folk who think that we've just invented the wheel by giving people vaccine and Just Can't Possibly Know what the results will be is laughable. 

It's not comparing like for like.

Noone said anything about can't possibly know. Not being 100% certain is different from being unable to know. 

Edited February 21, 2021 by madwullie

[Sergeant Wilson]

7 minutes ago, coprolite said:

Everyone knows the government has had to spend more because of covid. 

The governmant has borrowed something like £320bn.

But it has borrowed £270bn of that from the bank of England, which is owned by the government. The bank of England has "printed" that money. They create it out of thin air and don't borrow it. 

So if you were to view the government and the Bank of England as one unified entity (which in substance they are), the government has printed most of the money they have spent on covid and not borrowed it from outside lenders. 

But where do we get the idea this has to be paid back...or not? It sounds to me like extending your overdraft, at some point you need to get it down again.