Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Elixir]

2 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

"Experts disappointed by disappearance of Covid-19" headlines everywhere.

FTFY.

44 minutes ago, Steven W said:

I harped on about this a week ago....

Case numbers have platuaued. I imagine most would agree with that. They've done so at a fairly high level (about 850) and despite being 'lockdown', the case numbers are stubbornly high.

I personally think there should come a point where case numbers become irrelevant, but unfortunately NS doesn't agree with that.

I really don't know where we go from here. Case numbers stuck at 850 odds + in a lockdown = stuck in limbo.

I imagine they'll plateau until spring is upon us. Eventually, case numbers should become largely irrelevant.

[Left Back]

Just now, Steven W said:

Again, (re-iterating the point here really) I agree with you.

But ultimately it boils down to what Ms Sturgeon thinks. And it would appear that case numbers are quite a big deal (alongside the other numbers) to her.

They were a big deal when they were the only indicator of what was heading to hospitals.   Now they aren’t and any sensible person should adjust their significance accordingly.

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, Steven W said:

Again, (re-iterating the point here really) I agree with you.

But ultimately it boils down to what Ms Sturgeon thinks. And it would appear that case numbers are quite a big deal (alongside the other numbers) to her.

I understand that. But the tipping point will come if, after months of almost zero hospitalisations, she is still talking about protecting the NHS.

[ICTChris]

 

[HibsFan]

4 hours ago, Elixir said:

That's all well and good, but we just don't know!!!!!  

[Steven W]

5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I understand that. But the tipping point will come if, after months of almost zero hospitalisations, she is still talking about protecting the NHS.

"Protect the NHS" is SO lockdown#1 

Feels like that way of thinking has long been left behind in favour of 'no cases / no hospitalisations / no deaths'

 

[Left Back]

3 minutes ago, Steven W said:

"Protect the NHS" is SO lockdown#1 

Feels like that way of thinking has long been left behind in favour of 'no cases / no hospitalisations / no deaths'

 

Starving the unvaccinated will help with that.  They’ll be just as dead but not caused by covid so good for the stats.

[Elixir]

24 minutes ago, Ad Lib said:

You don't know that we're going to reach "such a high degree of vaccine coverage in the UK" or how quickly we're going to do it.

International travel as a UK citizen and in almost all developed countries literally requires a state-issued biometric passport not to mention for many people a state-issued visa. The idea that mandating someone has a vaccine before they can travel is a "your papers please dystopian society" is for the birds.

Err, no. Polling is quite clear that anywhere from 80-90% of the population in the UK are willing to take the vaccine, which fits with the 95%+ of over 70s who already have. As projections indicate, the rollout will conclude by late summer. The pandemic phase will likely be more or less at an end by then in the northern hemisphere anyway.

This discussion wasn't about international travel, but in the short to medium term it is a measure that will likely end up happening, but if it does away with the need for quarantine and testing, it will make life easier. Long-term, however, it should not be necessary.

11 minutes ago, Ad Lib said:

The same should also apply to Sainsbury's, football stadiums and GP surgeries. No ID, no compliance with the medical advice on the vaccine? No admittance. For as long as people who aren't vaccinated pose a risk that is greater than those who are not vaccinated, and for as long as vaccinations are in fact available to them, they should not be allowed to take part in society.

Which brings us to this. Not every person is able to be vaccinated: pregnant women, those with autoimmune conditions, and so on. What do you propose, we just treat these people like the 'anti-vaxx scum' and cut them out of society? Indeed, why should I or anyone who has been vaccinated have to be subjected to being treated in this way?

Of course, there is a reason why many scientists and indeed the Royal Society just this week highlighted how problematic this idea is. The acute health crisis is not going to last long enough to make it worthwhile in any form.

Out of interest, do you have posters of Tony Blair in your bedroom?

[vikingTON]

44 minutes ago, madwullie said:

OK. Well you should be prepared to be disappointed. 

The UK govt has been pretty gung ho a few times in the past 12 months and totally fucked it - so I can't see them doing anything other than removing restrictions based on what our data shows. The Scottish govt has been more conservative, so there's f**k all chance there. 

Because the fact that the government has made an arse of it before with back of a fag packet claims means that the government making a arse of it again for different reasons balances out and is not in fact the worst of both worlds. 

Quote

Are any other countries currently opening up based on the Israeli data?

Are any other countries issuing a 'road map' to lifting restrictions this very week, but plan to pretend that there's nothing that we can do to forecast this? 

Quote

Last I saw they themselves were only opening museums etc to the public, and everything else will require a vaccine passport - and they were estimating 90% vaccinated needed for herd immunity. And they're months ahead of us in this process.

Yeah because that's practically the same as our experience on Plague Island isn't it,  where coppers are trying to slap fines on people for talking on a park bench or using public transport. 

Simpering nonsense as usual. 

Edited February 21, 2021 by vikingTON

[Left Back]

So if the Israeli data is correct that vaccination stops 89.4% of transmission is it as simple as saying that automatically reduces the R from 3 to 0.3 in a vaccinated population?

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

14 minutes ago, HibsFan said:

That's all well and good, but we just don't know!!!!!  

We sure dont, lets just lockdown forever and think happy Devi thoughts. 

18 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

 

Cases arent going to fall when we are putting the mass testing out the way we are, it should entirely be based on the strain on the NHS, i mean it wont be, but it should be. Testing everyone in the desperate attempt to find #variants is just their excuse to keep us locked down for the next year. 

[madwullie]

7 minutes ago, virginton said:

Because the fact that the government has made an arse of it before with back of a fag packet claims means that the government making a arse of it again for different reasons balances out and is not in fact the worst of both worlds. 

Are any other countries issuing a 'road map' to lifting restrictions this very week, but plan to pretend that there's nothing that we can do to forecast this? 

Yeah because that's practically the same as our experience on Plague Island isn't it,  where coppers are trying to slap fines on people for talking on a park bench or using public transport. 

Simpering nonsense as usual. 

 

[Todd_is_God]

I'd personally advocate barring lockdownphiles from entering public places until at least mid 2022 tbh.

Given they don't want them to open, and want to be kept safe anyway, i'm sure they'd have no complaints...

Edited February 21, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[Elixir]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56145392

I wonder how long it will take for them to admit that, despite not knowing how much transmission is interrupted, it is going to be a lot, i.e. by at least two thirds and possibly as high as 90%, as publications this week have shown.

[renton]

1 hour ago, superbigal said:

Case numbers might not matter. But no getting away from Wales flown passed us, Northern Ireland catching us.  Even England might go past us on current trajectory.

All three had much higher peaks in cases earlier. Might be reflection on higher antibody presence in those countries now, and all 3 are shallowing out now.

Edited February 21, 2021 by renton

[Michael W]

I'd be wary of making comparisons based on current levels. England was miles above Scotland in terms of peak and also bear in mind it peaked around a week-ten days after Scotland did. 

Perhaps Scotland just has a higher 'natural' level based on ongoing activity than Wales does. Look at what's happened in England again for example - despite the South going haywire as the home of the Kent variant, it is now once again the lowest in England, back where it was prior to December. The natural level is probably lower because of a much higher office-based workforce than the rest of England. 

England is still going down but will find its level in the next week or so I imagine. Golf courses may well be shut but nurseries have remained open, which I gather they haven't in Scotland. 

Edited February 21, 2021 by Michael W

[Ad Lib]

44 minutes ago, Left Back said:

OK mate.  Let the unvaccinated starve.  Did you ever think of running for office?

On the contrary. Let those who are refusing to take the vaccine against medical advice starve.

36 minutes ago, Robin.Hood said:

Happy days. Means I don't need to go to work until I've had it. Result. Hopefully I get the furlough and enjoy some time off 

Once we reach that stage there won't be any furlough, you workshy vagrant.

19 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Err, no. Polling is quite clear that anywhere from 80-90% of the population in the UK are willing to take the vaccine, which fits with the 95%+ of over 70s who already have. As projections indicate, the rollout will conclude by late summer. The pandemic phase will likely be more or less at an end by then in the northern hemisphere anyway.

We don't yet know what proportion of the population need to be vaccinated for herd immunity to be achieved. This figure is variable and may be higher for certain variants than others.

I don't give a shit about "polling". I give a shit about what actually happens. You cannot project the behaviour of a cohort, a significant proportion of which are in care homes to the population at large.

19 minutes ago, Elixir said:

This discussion wasn't about international travel, but in the short to medium term it is a measure that will likely end up happening, but if it does away with the need for quarantine and testing, it will make life easier. Long-term, however, it should not be necessary.

Which brings us to this. Not every person is able to be vaccinated: pregnant women, those with autoimmune conditions, and so on. What do you propose, we just treat these people like the 'anti-vaxx scum' and cut them out of society? Indeed, why should I or anyone who has been vaccinated have to be subjected to being treated in this way?

If you took the care to read literally the first thing I said on the matter I said that those who refuse to take the vaccine against medical advice should be ostracised; not those who have medical justification for not having taken it. Any vaccine passport would be able to accommodate exempt persons.

You should be required to show your papers because it proves you are complying with public health guidance, and therefore that you are complying with the steps that are considered medically advisable to protect the population at large. Your liberties are less important than the health of the population as a whole.

19 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Of course, there is a reason why many scientists and indeed the Royal Society just this week highlighted how problematic this idea is. The acute health crisis is not going to last long enough to make it worthwhile in any form.

Out of interest, do you have posters of Tony Blair in your bedroom?

This health crisis is going to carry on well into 2022. Unless we literally shut out entire continents from travel into Europe, the virus is going to continue to mutate and to produce highly infectious variants, some of which will resist the vaccines we're handing out at the moment better than current variants.

The reason for this is straightforward: we simply aren't getting vaccines out quickly enough on a global scale. By the time parts of sub-Saharan Africa, for example, have got anywhere close to vaccine take-up in the region needed for herd immunity, we cannot say with confidence that the vaccines we encouraged everyone to take in the first half of 2021 are going to be effective when someone coughs their way through customs from Johannesburg.

Consistently the mistake our governments have made is not to lock down hard enough or early enough, and there's an even bigger risk of that if people go "oh shut up we've got to learn to live with it". This is going to be a global problem for several years yet, and it runs a serious risk of flare-ups in the western world because international travel exists and all it takes is one person to slip through the net and you have the South African variant all over again.

[Detournement]

57 minutes ago, Ad Lib said:

The same should also apply to Sainsbury's, football stadiums and GP surgeries. No ID, no compliance with the medical advice on the vaccine? No admittance. For as long as people who aren't vaccinated pose a risk that is greater than those who are not vaccinated, and for as long as vaccinations are in fact available to them, they should not be allowed to take part in society.

Tony Blair's not going to shag you M8

[Robin.Hood]

3 minutes ago, Ad Lib said:

 

Once we reach that stage there won't be any furlough, you workshy vagrant.

 

I mean... a month would be nice off. Or I keep getting told from my employers I am lucky I have a job ( let's not give a shit about my health) while we have 40+ temps still. 

Edited February 21, 2021 by Robin.Hood

[The Naitch]

Surprised that England are potentially prioritising beer gardens before non-essential retail can open.