Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[WhiteRoseKillie]

59 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

That's a why I said a significant minority. Most people do adhere to the rules, some can't for a variety of reasons.

It's the people @Tynieroseis talking about who are the problem. It's not limited to any particular age group. It is enough of a problem to remark on that there are people who have become extremely stupid and selfish in all walks of life and ages.

Which ends up with the inevitable rise of this current Tory shitshow. Unfortunately, they're dragging the rest of us down with them.

[welshbairn]

This sounds fucking horrendous, anyone who thinks we should ignore care home deaths when there isn't direct autopsy proof of Covi19 being the sole cause should have a read.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/without-a-plan-its-not-going-to-stop-care-homes-fear-worst-yet-to-come-covid-19

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

22 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

So am I, but we didn't have a situation like this to highlight it.

No fucking chance are you in your fifties. 

[WhiteRoseKillie]

6 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Naw I'm no I just work with data irl

Fair enough - it's always struck me as a pretty handy saying when you're dealing with people who let the media do their thinking for them.

[AUFC90]

FWIW, there is no cover up. Deaths in hospital are registered quickly and the capacity is on hand to test for Covid. Deaths outside hospitals can take a week to file the paper work and there is no capacity, at the moment, to test all dead. So total deaths lags the Covid hospital deaths by about 2 weeks. 
This has been discussed before that several people have raised the probability of a rise in non Covid deaths out of hospital due to people failing to go to hospital. Many heart specialists around the world are saying they are seeing a lot less non Covid cases than usual (as an example).
Anyone trying to insinuate conspiracies without good evidence and a clear understanding of how the ONS data works are best dismissed. 
There is a lot of speculation being passed off as fact.
 

Anyone that doesn't believe they're fudging the numbers is best dismissed. Ayr Utd will win the prem before the UK gov ever posts a daily total of over 1k.

[Jacksgranda]

12 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

This sounds fucking horrendous, anyone who thinks we should ignore care home deaths when there isn't direct autopsy proof of Covi19 being the sole cause should have a read.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/without-a-plan-its-not-going-to-stop-care-homes-fear-worst-yet-to-come-covid-19

 

" and are working closely with the ONS, PHE and the CQC to better understand the worrying number of deaths from Covid-19 in care homes and how we can prevent them"

No testing

No quarantine

No PPE

Staff off sick

That just about covers understanding it.

Provide PPE and testing and introduce quarantine would help prevent it.

But I'm no expert...

[Sergeant Wilson]

24 minutes ago, Miguel Sanchez said:

No fucking chance are you in your fifties. 

I lied about my age during the war.

[cyderspaceman]

1 hour ago, Tynierose said:

We are a tin pot joke of a nation from central government downwards.  The only thing we lead on is hubris.

You say that but I've been to several shops today, observing social distancing of course,  and I couldn't find a single hubri. 

Have they been stockpiled by panic buyers?

 

[Jacksgranda]

2 minutes ago, cyderspaceman said:

You say that but I've been to several shops today, observing social distancing of course,  and I couldn't find a single hubri. 

Have they been stockpiled by panic buyers?

 

They've been stockpiled by folk on social media.

[Michael W]

It does seem a bit busier out there today. Not really in terms of people wandering around, but I've definitely noticed a bit of an uptick in traffic. 

Warmer weather and lockdown fatigue will unfortunately do this, I guess. 

[Gaz]

The various governments relaxed the rules last week for people with learning disabilities which means that we can drive a short distance for exercise, and that we can go out for shorter periods more than once a day. This is a Godsend to us. Unfortunately my wife and I now know of several people who happily admit to lying that their children have learning difficulties so that they can go to the park five times a day.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Paco said:

There’s no point looking at what countries like Germany or New Zealand are doing with their easing of lockdown because they’ve dealt with things exponentially better than this country. They’ll get to a stage of normality, assuming all goes well, that we’ll probably never reach until a vaccine is found.

The only relatively valid comparisons we have are Spain and Italy, and given what their ‘loosening’ actually looks like I’ll be surprised if we see much change of any note until at least June. Spain for example are hitting headlines for ‘easing restrictions’ today - their measures include letting children out of the house (which hasn’t been allowed since March) and construction workers back to work (ours have never been made to stop). Italy have opened small shops/factories/offices under severe social distancing procedures, with a view to more by the end of the month - no specifics that I can see yet. And it’s worth bearing in mind that much of Italy hasn’t been too bad, half of their deaths have been in Lombardy (for context, 25% of England’s deaths have been in London, the undoubted UK epicentre). The Lazio region covering Rome has a bigger population than Scotland, but nearly half the deaths of Greater Glasgow and Clyde.

There’s all sorts of charts flying around studying the correlation of population, population density, per capita deaths etc but the biggest and clearest indicator of a better outcome is an early lockdown. We were far too slow, everyone knew at the time it was two weeks too late but it could’ve been as much as a five or six. So unfortunately, we went in too late so we should come out slower.

There will likely be small gains by June but not much more than that. Schools definitely won’t be back, especially when it would be for three or four weeks before the summer holiday. Media speculation like that is not helpful. We made a mess and we have to sort it out.

This is maybe where the German Federal model comes into it's own as basically the needs of rural areas vary greatly to those of the large Towns and City's and generally heavier populated areas.

It would also allow for local anomalies where certain regions were hit far less than others, even if they had densely populated areas within their region.

Looking at Spain again, although Barcelona and it's surrounds were hit hard, further South in Catalonia the likes of Tarragona down towards Valencia have been let off pretty lightly and as you say, Southern Italy taken in isolation has far lower rates than it's Northern counterpart.

Maybe we need to look at what works best for each area, although this will undoubtedly require a huge increase in testing and tracking and also some sort of ban on movement and of course politically would the Government be willing to treat areas differently ??

Who knows, but we really need to be looking at various strategies to get us out of this crisis.

[cyderspaceman]

12 minutes ago, Michael W said:

It does seem a bit busier out there today. Not really in terms of people wandering around, but I've definitely noticed a bit of an uptick in traffic. 

Warmer weather and lockdown fatigue will unfortunately do this, I guess. 

Same where I am.  More  folk wearing masks though, and all observing the distancing.  People just getting used to it as a (hopefully) temporary way of life I suppose.

Hand sanitising in shops, trolleys being cleaned after use, advice not to handle produce unnecessarily have all become the norm. 

Maybe 'just' another 3 weeks until some kind of relaxation here.

eta       Fcking hope so.

Edited April 23, 2020 by cyderspaceman
wishful thinking

[hk blues]

1 hour ago, DiegoDiego said:

 

Exactly, far too many people treat Asia like some homogenous blob, talking about Asian food, Asian women, Asian philosophy, et cetera when such things vary massively across the continent.

I'm in the Philippines - if you arrived here without knowing where you were you'd probably think you were  in Central/South America.  Very little stereotypically Asian about this country.

[hk blues]

1 hour ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

... even if the likes of Raaaab, Johnson, Patel and Handcock started doing their jobs in a competent and dutiful manner, the trust of the populace has gone.

That's not what the opinion polls are showing though,is it?

[Benjamin_Nevis]

The various governments relaxed the rules last week for people with learning disabilities which means that we can drive a short distance for exercise, and that we can go out for shorter periods more than once a day. This is a Godsend to us. Unfortunately my wife and I now know of several people who happily admit to lying that their children have learning difficulties so that they can go to the park five times a day.

Is this a thing? My partner has a long term brain injury so this would be great for her.

[jagfox]

 

 

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, cyderspaceman said:

Same where I am.  More  folk wearing masks though, and all observing the distancing.  People just getting used to it as a (hopefully) temporary way of life I suppose.

Hand sanitising in shops, trolleys being cleaned after use, advice not to handle produce unnecessarily have all become the norm. 

Maybe 'just' another 3 weeks until some kind of relaxation here.

eta       Fcking hope so.

This is a very good point which shouldn't be overlooked.

Basically most people will be more wary in the future as subconsciously they'll be washing their hands more, they'll be distancing themselves from others far more, they'll be practicing all round better hygiene and some won't be as touchy feely as they once were.

As such, you would think that this in itself would have a huge bearing on life after lockdown and automatically lower future transmission rates.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, jagfox99 said:

 

 

That sounds like bollocks to me.

How long do people survive in care homes?

In the Bupa sample, the average length of stay was 801 days, but with a considerable tail of long-stayers. Half of residents had died by 462 days. Around 27% of people lived for more than three years, with the longest stayer living for over 20 years.

[Gaz]

8 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

25 minutes ago, Gaz said:

The various governments relaxed the rules last week for people with learning disabilities which means that we can drive a short distance for exercise, and that we can go out for shorter periods more than once a day. This is a Godsend to us. Unfortunately my wife and I now know of several people who happily admit to lying that their children have learning difficulties so that they can go to the park five times a day.

Is this a thing? My partner has a long term brain injury so this would be great for her.

Yes. It's been great. Both our oldest daughters have learning difficulties and autism so keeping them in the house for 23+ hours a day was really challenging. Our local area isn't family friendly so now we can drive a short distance to a park.