Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[pandarilla]

The guy I was responding literally said that he applauds their handling of the situation.
This 'tacked to England' argument is honking and is thankfully only the very bottom of the barrel in Scottish political debate today. England didn't force the SG to ignore face masks; England didn't release Scottish patients into care homes with the virus; England didn't compel Scotland to keep its entirely separate schools system open weeks longer than any sane country did on the continent. Those are common failures that likely stem from a shared groupthink among official expertise circles but they do not come from the same politically responsible actor. The Scottish Government is big enough to be held to account for its own actions without shielding behind what London was doing at the same time.

Read the post properly, you welt.

I was applauding the Slovakian government, based on the article you shared.

[D.A.F.C]

52 minutes ago, virginton said:

The guy I was responding literally said that he applauds their handling of the situation.

This 'tacked to England' argument is honking and is thankfully only the very bottom of the barrel in Scottish political debate today. England didn't force the SG to ignore face masks; England didn't release Scottish patients into care homes with the virus; England didn't compel Scotland to keep its entirely separate schools system open weeks longer than any sane country did on the continent. Those are common failures that likely stem from a shared groupthink among official expertise circles but they do not come from the same politically responsible actor. The Scottish Government is big enough to be held to account for its own actions without shielding behind what London was doing at the same time.

All we had to do was lockdown two weeks earlier, close schools and ban mass gatherings. Deaths would have been a quarter of what they are now.

What really pisses me off is that a country like Greece with all the economic problems did it successfully and we continued for what? A few more pounds in the bank. It’s short term idiotic thinking from all parts of the uk.

Edited June 5, 2020 by D.A.F.C

[sparky88]

57 minutes ago, virginton said:

The guy I was responding literally said that he applauds their handling of the situation.

This 'tacked to England' argument is honking and is thankfully only the very bottom of the barrel in Scottish political debate today. England didn't force the SG to ignore face masks; England didn't release Scottish patients into care homes with the virus; England didn't compel Scotland to keep its entirely separate schools system open weeks longer than any sane country did on the continent. Those are common failures that likely stem from a shared groupthink among official expertise circles but they do not come from the same politically responsible actor. The Scottish Government is big enough to be held to account for its own actions without shielding behind what London was doing at the same time.

The difference between Scotland and England's handling is the far better messaging and the lack of defensiveness in the Scottish Governments response compared to england . Otherwise , with the odd minor exception, the SG has done the same as England and will have as many questions to answer about their response as England.

[Jacksgranda]

19 minutes ago, dundeefc1783 said:

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

You are aware the government figures contain deaths stretching back weeks if not months? Yes that graph shows only hospital deaths, but given the ONS figures etc its not umreasonable to infer that deaths in other settings are following a similar trend.
Hospital deaths account for around 50% of all deaths. Double each of those figures if you wish to get closer perhaps to the true daily number and you still get the same decline.
Whilst it is important to record and recognise someone who died 6 weeks ago, for example, it's completely irrelevant to the state of play today. Including it in a rolling 7 day average is, tbh, pointless.
Having a reporting system which is terribly inefficient is not the same as deaths being stubbornly high.

Looking at this from a slightly different angle so bear with me. I fully understand that these figures involve a number of deaths that have occurred in previous weeks months etc which makes figures hard to read but how many people have died this week that haven't been reported yet?

That's a hard one to answer...

[dundeefc1783]

That's a hard one to answer...

Let's call it a rhetorical question but you will understand the point I am making

 

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, dundeefc1783 said:

Let's call it a rhetorical question but you will understand the point I am making

I do.

But looking at the hospital figures you now need to go back 6 days to find triple figures.

Even allowing for those hospital figures to be half the figure for deaths in all settings the real "now" picture is considerably better than the one painted by the announced figures.

[HeartsOfficialMoaner]

9 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

Ok mystic meg

The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”

Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

[Thereisalight..]

I was just reading an article about the test and trace programme, and how it could be in place for 2 years and anytime you come into contact with someone with covid you’ve to isolate for 14 days. How on earth is any of that “doable” 

[D.A.F.C]

[Todd_is_God]

31 minutes ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”

Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

An article from the 24th of February. Really?

Interesting you left this quote about lockdowns out, however

"Despite the apparent ineffectiveness of such measures—relative to their inordinate social and economic cost, at least—the crackdown continues to escalate."

Edited June 5, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Todd_is_God]

I found this both surprising, and interesting (particularly when it comes to things like facemasks and social distancing).

Edited June 5, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[DeeTillEhDeh]

So it's got nothing to do with wearing masks at all then, even if you're paranoid enough to think that someone moving briefly within a magical two metre personal space is an act declaring that they 'feel invincible'. 
I think lockdown has got to some people's brains tbh.

Your brain by the rants you've had today.

[bendan]

12 hours ago, MixuFruit said:

There's plenty to criticise about how the Scottish government has handled things but the brass tacks of it is without lockdown and BoE £££ we could do only minor things differently. We, Wales, NI had no choice in when lockdown started, what is England's excuse?

There's plenty the SG could have done differently. I said at the time it was amazing the schools didn't close on March 13 - instead they went on until March 20 because 'the timing wasn't right'. What exactly were we waiting for? We could have been getting proper PPE in much earlier; we could have done massively better in terms of infections acquired in care homes and hospitals. We then swung from an it-absolutely-wasn't-herd-immunity strategy that looked remarkably like a herd immunity strategy to an uber cautious strategy that has stopped people doing things that weren't risky at all and has thus f***** with people's mental health and the economy to an unnecessary degree.

I'm not some unionist having a go here. I've supported independence all my life. I think we should accept that we had a lot more scope to do things on this issue than we actually used.

Edited June 6, 2020 by bendan

[Billy Jean King]

I do.
But looking at the hospital figures you now need to go back 6 days to find triple figures.
Even allowing for those hospital figures to be half the figure for deaths in all settings the real "now" picture is considerably better than the one painted by the announced figures.

But hospital deaths are neither the real or full picture so why use them. Deaths from C19 happen in care homes, at home and in hospital. Either way by earlier point remains, no matter what death figure you use, as long as you keep using the same one, a comparison is valid and I stand by my statement that deaths are stubbornly high given the claimed fall in infection rates, the two simply do not compute.

[bendan]

9 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

12 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

I do.
But looking at the hospital figures you now need to go back 6 days to find triple figures.
Even allowing for those hospital figures to be half the figure for deaths in all settings the real "now" picture is considerably better than the one painted by the announced figures.

But hospital deaths are neither the real or full picture so why use them. Deaths from C19 happen in care homes, at home and in hospital. Either way by earlier point remains, no matter what death figure you use, as long as you keep using the same one, a comparison is valid and I stand by my statement that deaths are stubbornly high given the claimed fall in infection rates, the two simply do not compute.

But if there are huge time lags between a confirmed infection and a confirmed death, how do they not compute? 

[Todd_is_God]

11 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

12 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

I do.
But looking at the hospital figures you now need to go back 6 days to find triple figures.
Even allowing for those hospital figures to be half the figure for deaths in all settings the real "now" picture is considerably better than the one painted by the announced figures.

But hospital deaths are neither the real or full picture so why use them. Deaths from C19 happen in care homes, at home and in hospital. Either way by earlier point remains, no matter what death figure you use, as long as you keep using the same one, a comparison is valid and I stand by my statement that deaths are stubbornly high given the claimed fall in infection rates, the two simply do not compute.

You can stand by it for as long as you like.

It doesn't make it true.

[Steven W]

Sky News running an article about the Qatar World Cup and how they're ready to comply with any health and safety changes relating to the pandemic.

First time I've seen something so far in advance mentioned in the same breath.

[bendan]

9 minutes ago, Steven W said:

Sky News running an article about the Qatar World Cup and how they're ready to comply with any health and safety changes relating to the pandemic.

First time I've seen something so far in advance mentioned in the same breath.

The World Cup in Qatar is depressing enough - doing it with added social distancing and health measures would make it as sterile an operating theatre.

[peasy23]

But if there are huge time lags between a confirmed infection and a confirmed death, how do they not compute? 

I don't agree with a lot of what Todd has posted in this thread, but have to agree with him on this point. It's perfectly plausible for new infections to be dropping off while deaths are still comparatively high. My brother in laws workmate passed away last weekend, fully 6 weeks after he had first taken ill, and spending his final 4 weeks in hospital. People dying today would have been a new infection around a month ago, as far as the figures go it computes perfectly well.

[Wee Willie]

 

13 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

That's a hard one to answer...

Phone a friend

1 hour ago, bendan said:

There's plenty the SG could have done differently. I said at the time it was amazing the schools didn't close on March 13 - instead they went on until March 20 because 'the timing wasn't right'. What exactly were we waiting for? We could have been getting proper PPE in much earlier; we could have done massively better in terms of infections acquired in care homes and hospitals. We then swung from an it-absolutely-wasn't-herd-immunity strategy that looked remarkably like a herd immunity strategy to an uber cautious strategy that has stopped people doing things that weren't risky at all and has thus f***** with people's mental health and the economy to an unnecessary degree.

I'm not some unionist having a go here. I've supported independence all my life. I think we should accept that we had a lot more scope to do things on this issue than we actually used.

Then we're on the same side.

Surely if Westminster holds the purse strings then ultimately they make the decisions.

If WM decides to end funding  for whatever group of people, or makes decisions which cost a lot of money, what can the devolved governments do about it?

All your questions you've asked there look great in hindsight but in reality everyone was learning new things.

I still prefer to be cautious and look at what other countries are doing and take note of the outcome to see if it would work in Scotland.