Carnoustie Young Guvnor Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, G51 said: What qualifications? Well, I completed primary school, which is enough for me to know that 0.61 (London's current R rate) - 0.7 (The initial estimate of the impact of the new strain on the R number) = -0.09 (What the R rate would look like if this new strain did not exist). Given that a negative R is a theoretical impossibility, then I think it's more than reasonable to say "Hang on, something's not quite right here, maybe those initial estimates (that were given as between 0.46 - 0.8 with a 95% CI and no explanation on how this was calculated) might be a touch off here, we should consider whether this needs to be revised down." It's not as simple as 0.61 - 0.7 = -0.09, but it's a fag-packet calculation that shows the initial estimate is off. Alright well I'll stick to the people who know what they're talking about if that's all the same. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I don't think so actually. I think they aren't that stupid but are happy for people to think its incompetence. If you look at their actions all the way through this they have done this, they have chosen courses of action that have caused increased spread and cases to increase. This is because they are pursuing a path of herd immunity, so I would imagine the plan was keep the planes flying for a few days make sure we get that strain too then stop them and go 'awww we were just too late, again, can you believe how unlucky we are?' Its the same with everything with Tories. People make the mistake of believing they are decent people who are just incompetent or have different ideas about how to go about things. They aren't decent people, they are absolute monsters, and when you look at it like that their actions in every area make much more sense.That's bollocks. You are basically saying they are intentionally importing more virulent strains knowing full well the NHS is already at breaking point. They might be incompetent but they aren't psychopaths. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aladdin Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said: Again what are your qualifications here? We're sitting here with two laymen parroting another one to undermine the actual experts in the field. Yeah, what qualifications does @craigkillie have to conclude that a statistician is best qualified to interpret statistics? In fact what qualifications do I have to even pose such a question? There's no BA in Philosophy lurking down the back of the couch. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Again what are your qualifications here? We're sitting here with two laymen parroting another one to undermine the actual experts in the field. And a multi account, multi banned troll from a Scottish football forum most recently seen claiming his mum was a better football manager than Jose Mourinho, and making up lies about doctors in Ireland, apparently 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carnoustie Young Guvnor Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Billy Jean King said: 12 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said: I don't think so actually. I think they aren't that stupid but are happy for people to think its incompetence. If you look at their actions all the way through this they have done this, they have chosen courses of action that have caused increased spread and cases to increase. This is because they are pursuing a path of herd immunity, so I would imagine the plan was keep the planes flying for a few days make sure we get that strain too then stop them and go 'awww we were just too late, again, can you believe how unlucky we are?' Its the same with everything with Tories. People make the mistake of believing they are decent people who are just incompetent or have different ideas about how to go about things. They aren't decent people, they are absolute monsters, and when you look at it like that their actions in every area make much more sense. That's bollocks. You are basically saying they are intentionally importing more virulent strains knowing full well the NHS is already at breaking point. They might be incompetent but they aren't psychopaths. Erm....yes they are, without question. Psychopaths and sociopaths is exactly what they are. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheScarf Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Fuck me, get this thread closed down. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G51 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said: Alright well I'll stick to the people who know what they're talking about if that's all the same. If you can't engage on the substance, then maybe it's best you do. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, G51 said: I think it's perfectly reasonable for a statistician to review and scrutinise the data and say "Something doesn't add up here". It's then for a virologist or epidemiologist to explain that. I don't think there's much doubt that the new strain is more transmissible (the proof is that it continues to make up a greater percentage of cases) but 70% transmissible is clearly wrong, otherwise the lockdowns wouldn't be working. If London's R rate is currently sitting at 0.61, how is it possible for this new strain to add up to 0.7 on the R rate (which is what was originally claimed)? In fairness the actual Ferguson paper said it had an additive effect to R of between 0.4 and 0.7, and even that was the aggregated medians of about 4 different models. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carnoustie Young Guvnor Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Aladdin said: Yeah, what qualifications does @craigkillie have to conclude that a statistician is best qualified to interpret statistics? In fact what qualifications do I have to even pose such a question? There's no BA in Philosophy lurking down the back of the couch. Yeah none whatsoever, nobody on here is qualified to say this random on Twitter is in a better place to assess the R number than the people actually doing it for the government. Its wishful thinking. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erih Shtrep Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 If the Prime minister has imported the Brazilian variant via his 'Flying into the UK is a great idea' strategy it should the latest in a long line of reasons for him to resign. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizfit Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Well goodbye my bonus. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G51 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, renton said: In fairness the actual Ferguson paper said it had an additive effect to R of between 0.4 and 0.7, and even that was the aggregated medians of about 4 different models. It did (I covered that in my subsequent post). My main gripe with this tbh is that when it was published, everyone ran with 0.7 and people lost their fucking minds. Now that is clearly less than that though, there's absolutely zero coverage. I get that you always want to be cautious with this stuff, but the flip side is when you're talking about a figure that has been shown to be wrong, you're worrying people unnecessarily. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Erm....yes they are, without question. Psychopaths and sociopaths is exactly what they are.WoW ! And who does this description extend to within the UK wide response ? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, G51 said: It did (I covered that in my subsequent post). My main gripe with this tbh is that when it was published, everyone ran with 0.7 and people lost their fucking minds. Now that is clearly less than that though, there's absolutely zero coverage. I get that you always want to be cautious with this stuff, but the flip side is when you're talking about a figure that has been shown to be wrong, you're worrying people unnecessarily. Well, yeah I agree with that. Media was always going to run with the more headline making number. I mean one of the models suggests the effect has a median of 0.36 with 95% confidence intervals of 0.11 and 0.58... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post craigkillie Posted January 15, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted January 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said: Again what are your qualifications here? We're sitting here with two laymen parroting another one to undermine the actual experts in the field. I've got a PhD in statistics. 50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, renton said: In fairness the actual Ferguson paper said it had an additive effect to R of between 0.4 and 0.7, and even that was the aggregated medians of about 4 different models. The WHO said it had nothing to do with the new variant at all, and the increase was due to an increase in household mixing. Unsurprisingly, with schools being closed now for over 3 weeks, and the Christmas shopping rush over, the R rate is decreasing again. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erih Shtrep Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, G51 said: It did (I covered that in my subsequent post). My main gripe with this tbh is that when it was published, everyone ran with 0.7 and people lost their fucking minds. Now that is clearly less than that though, there's absolutely zero coverage. I get that you always want to be cautious with this stuff, but the flip side is when you're talking about a figure that has been shown to be wrong, you're worrying people unnecessarily. Fair point. Equally I'd like the politicians and be honest enough to say this strain is more deadly. The UK ( at the minute ) has the highest daily death rates in the world per capita. We've seen Germany comfortably dealing with the first wave seeing death numbers treble. The current death rates in Scotland alone is higher than the US (adjusted for population), and it's off the scale in England. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MP_MFC Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 c16k vaccinated yesterday. Keeping pace at this rate I presume until all the over 80s are done and then can begin to ramp up once bigger centres come available for the lower priority tiers 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 The WHO said it had nothing to do with the new variant at all, and the increase was due to an increase in household mixing. Unsurprisingly, with schools being closed now for over 3 weeks, and the Christmas shopping rush over, the R rate is decreasing again.The WHO didn't actually say that. They said it was the case "in some countries" without then saying which countries they were referring to. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glen Sannox Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Listening to Cringe Freelunch giving out the figures pretty much now confirms, that they are failing miserably administering vaccines. An absolute shambles but not surprising given the ineptitude of these people. -6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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