Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[8MileBU]

1 minute ago, Left Back said:

How will they pay the other 39 fines?

Ah, FFS - I read the original post wrong. Thought it read anyone having a house party of 15 folk or more.

[10menwent2mow]

Every single person that passes comment on the long term strategy of this is doing so purely from a health point of view. That might seem an obvius thing to say, but in practice, they are actually all advocating a colossal amount of protection to an increasingly minute amount of people who need it for an indefinite amount of time. Why aren't the politicians stepping in? We don't have the fucking stomach to admit that even with covid still about, we will need to choose between a small number of unfortunate deaths or abject misery for millions.
Embarrassing If we really are a nation so emotionally immature that all we are fit to hear is this fucking drivel from Vallance etc

Harsh though it sounds, you are spot on. This whole idea of one death is one death too many has been a ridiculous position to be in since day 1. Yes, we must prevent as many deaths as possible but we could prevent all road deaths by stopping folk from driving, however, that would be ridiculous. While not disagreeing with the need for restrictions, continuing them for any longer than is absolutely necessary, which erring on the side of caution would be, is going to do more harm than good.

[Ron Aldo]

Think we're genuinely at the stage where the media are fully immersed in dampening any optimism of the public by rolling out doom and gloom merchants. However, I genuinely don't believe this to be the case and as the situation inevitably improves, so too will the confidence and resolve of people. A lessening of cases, ICU admissions and deaths, coupled with the lifting of total lockdowns will lead to people realising that there's actually nothing more to be genuinely scared about than already lurks out there. 
As I mentioned yesterday, we are still in that stage where scientists and medical experts' views trump all and a medical expert is always going to err on the side of caution. Of course they are.
As this winter, where we all are still accepting of restrictions and waiting for a vaccination programme to pick up, gradually becomes spring, the groundswell of dissent (not from the public, the govt. don't give a f**k about their dissent) from several corporate sectors will become loud and will do so quickly. And will be impossible for them to ignore and disregard as the severity of the disease is hammered by the vaccination.
As cases drop, as hospitals empty, as deaths fall away and the burden of the health staff is lessened significantly, the cautious voices of folk like Vallance, van Tam and Leitch will fade into the background and be weighted against that of economists, businessmen and educators.
Will it go away? No. Will people still get it in certain numbers? Of course. But in the presence of a full and completed vaccination programme, you will be no more worried taking covid into the care home and infecting your vaccinated granny than you would be bringing in seasonal flu. 

Completely agree. We're in a shitty situation right now but one which, in my view, is immeasurably better than last March.

I remember last summer when cases were in single figures and we (Scotland that is) didn't record a death in weeks. I remember thinking (probably a bit foolishly, looking back) that this was almost done and dusted with a slow return to normality on the horizon and that there would be a vaccine at some point just to keep the virus under control.

Obviously that didn't turn out to be the case. Like you say, cases are already falling so deaths and hospital admissions should follow. I'd expect numbers to massively decrease again as summer kicks in with the key difference this year being that we do have a vaccine to hopefully keep it that way. Even if cases do creep up by next winter, that shouldn't matter a jot if the vaccine does its key job and prevents most people becoming seriously ill.

We'll probably have another 2-3 months of utter shite and days where we wonder what the point is but after that I hope things will start to massively improve.

[Aladdin]

Let's be honest, neither the Scottish or Westminster governments have a fucking clue how to roadmap out of the lockdown apart from the vaccines.

Leaving aside the prevalence of the virus, our track and trace systems don't work. The tiered approach of local restrictions, as they were applied last year, dont work. Blaming the public hasn't worked.

If they are going to pin everything on the vaccine then I would expect to see projections on which restrictions can be lifted once X number of people have been vaccinated. That nothing has been produced to date is pretty fucking poor to say the least and does nothing to increase compliance with the restrictions.

[Left Back]

Regardless of the content Patel’s delivery and confidence is night and day from Hancock who comes across like he’s won a raffle to be in the job.

[s_dog]

19 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

As cases drop, as hospitals empty, as deaths fall away and the burden of the health staff is lessened significantly, the cautious voices of folk like Vallance, van Tam and Leitch will fade into the background and be weighted against that of economists, businessmen and educators.

Will it go away? No. Will people still get it in certain numbers? Of course. But in the presence of a full and completed vaccination programme, you will be no more worried taking covid into the care home and infecting your vaccinated granny than you would be bringing in seasonal flu. 

I get that you'd like that 'end result' to happen, I think most of us would settle for that right now. But is this the right way to go about it, as wasn't it exactly what happened in Spring/Summer last year, and look at us now? By doing that aren't you just repeating the same actions, but with the hope that vaccinations alone will lead to a radically different outcome.  Not even the scientists and other so-called experts know with any great certainty what is going to happen in the months ahead while we wait for the vaccination programme to be completed. The vaccinations will stop so many people becoming seriously ill, but will it work long-term, have any affect on transmission, will the virus mutate further to become resistant to vaccines, etc, etc. It's just all so unknown, how can anyone be certain of anything right now? 

Edited January 21, 2021 by s_dog

[Ron Aldo]

I get that you'd like that 'end result' to happen, I think most of us would settle for that right now. But is this the right way to go about it, as wasn't it exactly what happened in Spring/Summer last year, and look at us now? By doing that aren't you just repeating the same actions, but with the hope that vaccinations alone will lead to a radically different outcome.  Not even the scientists and other so-called experts know with any great certainty what is going to happen in the months ahead while we wait for the vaccination programme to be completed. 
[/quote

]So if the vaccination program isn't as successful as hoped (assuming that's what you're getting at), what's your solution?

Keeping everyone under restrictions forever is not a viable solution whichever way this pans out.

[Glen Sannox]

5 minutes ago, Left Back said:

Regardless of the content Patel’s delivery and confidence is night and day from Hancock who comes across like he’s won a raffle to be in the job.

Hancock may indeed have won a raffle, but it’s not as big a raffle as the one that Gavin Williamson won. 

[Left Back]

7 minutes ago, Glen Sannox said:

Hancock may indeed have won a raffle, but it’s not as big a raffle as the one that Gavin Williamson won. 

Isn’t Williamson a former Whip?  Knowing where some bodies are buried will get you a job.

[djchapsticks]

20 minutes ago, s_dog said:

I get that you'd like that 'end result' to happen, I think most of us would settle for that right now. But is this the right way to go about it, as wasn't it exactly what happened in Spring/Summer last year, and look at us now? By doing that aren't you just repeating the same actions, but with the hope that vaccinations alone will lead to a radically different outcome.  Not even the scientists and other so-called experts know with any great certainty what is going to happen in the months ahead while we wait for the vaccination programme to be completed. The vaccinations will stop so many people becoming seriously ill, but will it work long-term, have any affect on transmission, will the virus mutate further to become resistant to vaccines, etc, etc. It's just all so unknown, how can anyone be certain of anything right now? 

It was their sole rationale behind restrictions all of last year.

Literally 'we need to do this until a vaccine is available and rolled out'.

So forgive me for saying that yes, the vaccines must lead to a radically different outcome. Because if it they themselves reckon it doesn't, then what were they doing fucking about with their thumbs up their collective arses all of 2020 when people were questioning what their plan B would be if a vaccine didn't happen or didn't work?

Edited January 21, 2021 by djchapsticks

[Billy Jean King]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-55704312
Lockdown in NI until Easter.

Easter ? The article say 5 March.

[Elixir]

Ah, Patrick Vallance... another person who wants to pretend that their original position didn't exist, or that it isn't still inevitable now anyway.

 

 

[Distant Doonhamer]

2 hours ago, superbigal said:

Todays summary

Mr Swinney says the latest estimate for the R number in Scotland is around one and has probably fallen in the last week.

The deputy first minister says the current lockdown restrictions are helping to stabilise the R number.

Thank you John for the 1st nearer to the truth statement on R in the last week.  My feeble calculations say it is likely between 0.8-0.9.

Now accessed the other home nations for the cases per 100K latest.   These are a little behind the Scottish cases.  England 497.3,   Wales 304.3, Northern Ireland 384.3

Scotland peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan    So our peak is still lower than where the other nations currently stand.

From 11th to 17th January we were down to  207.3

Todays figure for 12th Jan to 18th Jan is 200.4   Another decent single Day drop of 3.33%. Infections have dropped every day since the  aforementioned peak.  Total drop is now 33.62%   Also now not a single Council in one of the Level 4 Indicators of over 300 cases per 100K as Glasgow & North Lanarkshire drop below the magic number.   Other big cities Aberdeen & Dundee close to dropping below 200.  Edinburgh on a different planet and going back in time would be screaming for Level 2.

Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

Glasgow City   309.3 to 293.6 

North Lanarkshire   305.8 to 293.5 

Renfrewshire 290.9 to 290.3    

Clackmannanshire 281.3 to 287.2  Been climbing for 4 days but pretty low population so will not take much to turn corner.

Inverclyde  275.1 to 271.2

North Ayrshire  276.1 to 267.2

East Ayrshire  2265.6 to 262.3

South Lanarkshire   255.8 to 247.4

Dumfries & Galloway  263.3 to 243.9  

East Dunbartonshire     243.9 to 235.6

Falkirk   210.7 to 230.6  

West Dunbartonshire    242.9 to 229.4

South Ayrshire  224.7 to 214.9

Aberdeen City  230.9 to 212.1

Dundee City 200.9 to 202.3

East Renfrewshire  178.0 to 169.6

Western Isles  164.7 to 168.4   Barra and South Uist now over 1000.  Looks to have peaked which is good.  37 Cases in total over period.

Angus  151.5 to 163.5

Perth & Kinross  157.9 to 159.3

Stirling   151.8 to 153.9

Fife  160.1 to 152.9

Moray  122.1 to 133.6 

West Lothian 138.7 to 132.7

Scottish  Borders  135.9 to 128.1

City Of Edinburgh  133.4 to 127.6   

Aberdeenshire  141.3 to 127.5

East Lothian   123.3 to 123.3

Midlothian  104.9 to 119.0

Highlands 122.1 to 111.1 Invergordon now dropping rapidly which is good news.

Shetland Islands  91.6 to 96.0

Argyll & Bute  67.5 to 55.9

Orkney Island  31.4 to 35.9

Scot Gov publication today giving the R number as 0.8-1.1

R Number

Edited January 21, 2021 by Distant Doonhamer

[djchapsticks]

22 minutes ago, s_dog said:

I get that you'd like that 'end result' to happen, I think most of us would settle for that right now. But is this the right way to go about it, as wasn't it exactly what happened in Spring/Summer last year, and look at us now? By doing that aren't you just repeating the same actions, but with the hope that vaccinations alone will lead to a radically different outcome.  Not even the scientists and other so-called experts know with any great certainty what is going to happen in the months ahead while we wait for the vaccination programme to be completed. The vaccinations will stop so many people becoming seriously ill, but will it work long-term, have any affect on transmission, will the virus mutate further to become resistant to vaccines, etc, etc. It's just all so unknown, how can anyone be certain of anything right now? 

A novel Coronavirus coming from nowhere is a massive shock to the system that the greatest virologists on the planet weren't prepared for.

Mutations, though, are not a surprise and fully expected. A mutated virus is still the same virus. It would not derail vaccines to the point of starting again from scratch or costing several months of work.

[Arch Stanton]

2 hours ago, superbigal said:

This is apparently the truth behind Pfizer delays.  Not very nice of them if 100% true.

Pfizer scaled back vaccine supply after learning about ‘bonus doses’

 

 

 

 

 

Pharmaceutical company Pfizer reduced the number of deliveries after hearing that a sixth “bonus dose” could be extracted from a vial, according to Belgium’s federal vaccine task force.

Last weekend, Pfizer announced that it wanted to scale up and would therefore temporarily be able to supply fewer vaccines, but that was not the only reason for the sudden delay of the vaccinations among hospital staff, of which the government was informed on Tuesday afternoon.

The reduction in supply is linked to the fact that six doses can now be taken from a Pfizer vial instead of five, according to Sabine Stordeur (UCL) of the federal vaccination task force.

She told Le Soir that the contract between Pfizer and Belgium is calculated on the number of doses, and not on the number of vials.

This means that now that the company is aware of the fact that Belgium – and other countries as well – could almost consistently get six doses, it scaled back deliveries.

“Coming from 92 plateaus with 195 vials, we are now down to 76 plateaus,” Stordeur said. “We knew that there was a chance that they would adjust that. And they did. It is still a commercial company. It was a mistake to think we could win a dose this way.”

“We were counting the vials, but Pfizer counted the doses according to the contract,” Caroline Leys, spokesperson for the task force, confirmed to De Standaard.

Belgian virologist Marc Van Ranst also reacted to the news on Twitter, asking if he could think that the reduced delivery was “not very decent” of the company.

In the meantime, the federal medicines agency FAMHP has also indicated that Pfizer has officially changed the information on the package to say that six rather than five doses can be taken from a vial.

“That applies to the whole of Europe, those reports have been adapted,” said spokesperson Ann Eeckhout. “This is nothing new for us, but it does have an impact on the communication of the figures. That is precisely why we communicate in the number of doses supplied and not in vials. At least we were able to take advantage of the six doses instead of five for a short time.”

Pfor pfuck's sake.

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

Someone needs to tell Devi the nights are drawing out ffs.

The dark winter armageddon talk is shit and it can't hold water much longer. It's a really negative message that seems designed to keep mood and optimism suppressed. I can already get out a walk in daylight after work.

It's almost as if she is sitting on a stack of vacuous pish articles, and didn't bother to check the template for this one.

[Billy Jean King]

Completely agree. We're in a shitty situation right now but one which, in my view, is immeasurably better than last March.

I remember last summer when cases were in single figures and we (Scotland that is) didn't record a death in weeks. I remember thinking (probably a bit foolishly, looking back) that this was almost done and dusted with a slow return to normality on the horizon and that there would be a vaccine at some point just to keep the virus under control.

Obviously that didn't turn out to be the case. Like you say, cases are already falling so deaths and hospital admissions should follow. I'd expect numbers to massively decrease again as summer kicks in with the key difference this year being that we do have a vaccine to hopefully keep it that way. Even if cases do creep up by next winter, that shouldn't matter a jot if the vaccine does its key job and prevents most people becoming seriously ill.

We'll probably have another 2-3 months of utter shite and days where we wonder what the point is but after that I hope things will start to massively improve.

I'd expect daily new infections to be a thing of the past well before next winter. Once the population is vaccinated they quickly become irrelevant unless something has gone massively wrong.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

"I think the people in this country have had enough of experts."

[Elixir]

Even if there wasn't a vaccine, the pandemic would still eventually end. It would just take a lot more death and drawn out suffering.

[vikingTON]

34 minutes ago, s_dog said:

I get that you'd like that 'end result' to happen, I think most of us would settle for that right now. But is this the right way to go about it, as wasn't it exactly what happened in Spring/Summer last year, and look at us now? By doing that aren't you just repeating the same actions, but with the hope that vaccinations alone will lead to a radically different outcome.  

Quote

It's just all so unknown, how can anyone be certain of anything right now? 

Well there's nothing to stop you and the other knicker-wetters from shielding indefinitely until you get the certainty!!!111!!! that you crave so much.

I, like any rational human being though, will be taking my chances with the three vaccinations already on the go within twelve months: which is quite literally one of the greatest achievements in the history of medicine.