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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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1 hour ago, Bairnardo said:

Falkirk numbers perhaps starting to show the effects of the aforementioned, yet not reflected in the numbers pop up testing centre in Grangemouth?

I doubt it. It wasn't really ever that busy (sadly) aside from the Saturday morning when it opened, as far as I could tell. Also Bo'ness had a pop up testing centre at the beginning of January and never caused a rise in numbers like we're seeing now.

Just seems widespread across the district. Hard to comprehend really we were in tier 2 just over six weeks ago.

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Saw this on the BBC and thought of this thread... Screenshot_20210205_190054.thumb.jpeg.e4817bc0c70d131891e8f2dca5adbb9d.jpeg
The number of cases in a fully vaccinated population required to get sufficient people sufficiently ill for it to be a strain on the NHS would surely need to be off the scale. Given there seems to be a reasonable effect against transmission in the latest trials the R number would need to be above peak levels to generate those case numbers. I don't get the continued obsession with cases in future projections. Wasn't the aim to make Covid endemic by mitigating the seriousness of illness via vaccination. Of course a small number will still get seriously I'll ot die but to get NHS threatening levels would need case numbers not seen before.

What us the "natural" R rate of current variants ie what would it be with zero restrictions ?
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22 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

The number of cases in a fully vaccinated population required to get sufficient people sufficiently ill for it to be a strain on the NHS would surely need to be off the scale. Given there seems to be a reasonable effect against transmission in the latest trials the R number would need to be above peak levels to generate those case numbers. I don't get the continued obsession with cases in future projections. Wasn't the aim to make Covid endemic by mitigating the seriousness of illness via vaccination. Of course a small number will still get seriously I'll ot die but to get NHS threatening levels would need case numbers not seen before.

What us the "natural" R rate of current variants ie what would it be with zero restrictions ?

I’m wondering if the undated reference means this is an old document written when no-one had any evidence about what the vaccines would actually do or what impact the new variants would have.

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47 minutes ago, Snafu said:

I see that the UK variant has been noted as responsible for 6% of cases in Germany, now how did it get over there?

Have we not been on lock down since 26th December?

It was kicking about here since late summer. It's so contagious though that we just didn't notice until December.

Edited by Todd_is_God
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10 minutes ago, Tynierose said:

Someone rein in the science geeks please and pop them back in their wee labs and let them do whatever they normally do.

And in the real world where people need  to work, relax and have fulfilment in their lives...

We need to be shoving their heads down toilets again, always worked back in the day.

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1 hour ago, renton said:

Week the Unis went back, 21.4. Week the circuit breaker came in in October, over 100 odds.

IIRC It was about 80 in November. I remember we were near or at Level 2 qualification when East Lothian was in Level 2. I think we were kept in Level 3 because we were a big city with people travelling in to work. Grr.

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Quote
Posted at 18:43

Lifting restrictions fully by September 'would cause significant further disease'

image.gif.24bd58936ad41a3853bd5a2b5e593c24.gif
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
With restrictions similar to those in place in late summer last year, a return to normal schooling by September should be "quite achievable"Image caption: With restrictions similar to those in place in late summer last year, a return to normal schooling by September should be "quite achievable"

Fully relaxing coronavirus restrictions by September, when the new school year begins, would see "significant further disease", even with a fast vaccine rollout and high uptake of jabs, scientists advising the UK government have warned.

In an undated document published by Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on Friday, the experts said a combination of factors, such as more transmissible coronavirus variants, vaccine hesitancy and jabs not working so well in some people could still lead to people getting ill with Covid-19.

However, with restrictions similar to those in place in late summer last year, a return to normal schooling by then should be "quite achievable", they said.

'could still lead to people getting ill with Covid-19'

Aye, very good. b9rreGI.png

Edit: just seen this has been posted. Last summer was a tragedy and a repeat with the whole country vaxxed is not acceptable. All our civil liberties need returned pronto.

Edited by Elixir
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On 04/02/2021 at 11:06, Ned Nederlander said:

Despite new hubs opening on Monday, the numbers this week being circa 40k and Scotland looking like it will meet the mid-Feb target for priority groups the Scottish Tories are clearly going to claim that (the not even introduced yet) 81 'British' troops will have been the reason for the upswing.

So, aye, Rees-mogg casually credited the army for an upswing that began four days before they even arrived

This along with the obvious bollocks regarding care home numbers down South - the Tories really are an odious bunch

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32 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Lifting restrictions fully by September 'would cause significant further disease'

image.gif.24bd58936ad41a3853bd5a2b5e593c24.gif
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
With restrictions similar to those in place in late summer last year, a return to normal schooling by September should be "quite achievable"Image caption: With restrictions similar to those in place in late summer last year, a return to normal schooling by September should be "quite achievable"

Fully relaxing coronavirus restrictions by September, when the new school year begins, would see "significant further disease", even with a fast vaccine rollout and high uptake of jabs, scientists advising the UK government have warned.

In an undated document published by Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on Friday, the experts said a combination of factors, such as more transmissible coronavirus variants, vaccine hesitancy and jabs not working so well in some people could still lead to people getting ill with Covid-19.

However, with restrictions similar to those in place in late summer last year, a return to normal schooling by then should be "quite achievable", they said

 

43badf36d90782d95adeb9bb709c6043.jpeg

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6 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

Falkirk numbers perhaps starting to show the effects of the aforementioned, yet not reflected in the numbers pop up testing centre in Grangemouth?

Pretty big outbreak in the bus depot, 30% of staff off, mass testing done over last 2 days. Bus services getting cut next week due to shortage of staff 

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