Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Left Back]

21 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

 

If I'm reading that right Imperial are predicting another 15k deaths and Warwick another 19k?

[Michael W]

1 minute ago, Wee Bully said:

Don’t be Devi.

Finally, the thread is united. 

[Have some faith in Magic]

Things like this article from the BBC mixing up different types of data just annoy me:

GP Dr Ellie Cannon tells BBC Breakfast the rate for this type of blood clot has been about one in 2.5 million people.

 

She says that, in contrast, among 2.5 million 40-year-olds with Covid "we would expect around 2,000 deaths", adding the risk of a clot is "incredibly rare"

 

One in every 2.5m across all age groups is a very different statistic to specifics about 40 year olds, what is the rate for 40 year olds? 

 

Of these 2000 40 year olds that would end up dead the vast vast majority would have underlying health conditions that make them much more vulnerable to covid so the risk becomes much greater and the vaccine decision is a very different one. 

[Elixir]

So you have this thanks to the shitshow of Brexit, all the while followed by certain Government advisers wanting aviation and travel torched for years to come. They have to be held to account.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

You could also get hit by a bus, so we should just restrict all buses just incase

[Elixir]

58 minutes ago, Left Back said:

If I'm reading that right Imperial are predicting another 15k deaths and Warwick another 19k?

I believe this is their 'middle' scenario, rather than their nonsense 'worst case'. For context: 15-19,000 deaths is less than the number of people who died of influenza during the winter of 2017/18.

Edited April 7, 2021 by Elixir

[effeffsee_the2nd]

5 minutes ago, Left Back said:

If I'm reading that right Imperial are predicting another 15k deaths and Warwick another 19k?

so about the same as we managed in the first fortnight in January?  Death literally the most unavoidable fact of life. get restriction right in the bin

[Left Back]

1 minute ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

so about the same as we managed in the first fortnight in January?  Death literally the most unavoidable fact of life. get restriction right in the bin

Depends if the government think that's an acceptable number that the electorate will swallow.

You'd have to assume most of these deaths would be expected over the winter months so an average of around 150ish per day.  There would also be more people in hospital with coronavirus than those dying so what does that do to the NHS?  You'd hope someone is working all this out.

[Mark Connolly]

Great to read superbigal's update and see all the cities having massive drops, as well as the Glasgow suburbs

[renton]

6 minutes ago, Elixir said:

I believe this is their 'middle' scenario, rather than their nonsense 'worst case'. For context: 15-19,000 deaths is less than the number of people who died of influence during the winter of 2017/18.

Both teams seem relatively pessimistic on the transmission reduction in their models too. 0-30% across both teams. Haven't initial studies shown transmission reduction in health care workers to be far higher? Hasn't the Israeli data shown the same?

[craigkillie]

7 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Yes but being capable of interpreting those articles is another thing altogether and not something that someone without significant prior training could or should realistically expect to be credibly capable of.

Doesn't seem to stop a lot of people though.

Right, so in fact I was entirely correct and the tweet being referred to was indeed complete bollocks.

[Left Back]

2 minutes ago, renton said:

Both teams seem relatively pessimistic on the transmission reduction in their models too. 0-30% across both teams. Haven't initial studies shown transmission reduction in health care workers to be far higher? Hasn't the Israeli data shown the same?

One of the models had a scenario with an estimated improved transmission reduction bring deaths down to 9k.  Whether that was in line with our studies ort the Israeli data who knows.

[Marshmallo]

If we are vaccinating all the priority groups and there is not pressure on the NHS then there should be no slow down in re-opening and ditching distancing, masks etc, at least domestically, regardless of any slowdown in receiving supply from EU countries.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

12 minutes ago, Left Back said:

Depends if the government think that's an acceptable number that the electorate will swallow.

You'd have to assume most of these deaths would be expected over the winter months so an average of around 150ish per day.  There would also be more people in hospital with coronavirus than those dying so what does that do to the NHS?  You'd hope someone is working all this out.

Yeah I understand it from that point, which makes me take slight issue with the reporting of deaths. the way they have done so with the running totals make it sound like a war or natural disaster, obviously there have been many people who have gone before their time and I'm certainly not belittling any death from this. but it's not like they would all still be here had it not been for covid. the same goes for future waves too, if a vaccinated 87 year old tests pos

[TheScarf]

6 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

If we are vaccinating all the priority groups and there is not pressure on the NHS then there should be no slow down in re-opening and ditching distancing, masks etc, at least domestically, regardless of any slowdown in receiving supply from EU countries.

Yep, the whole point of lockdown is to stop the NHS from bursting.  The vaccine will prevent that.

This whole 'we don't know' and 'we need to be cautious' is basically the SG admitting they don't trust the vaccine.  Fucking wild.

[Billy Jean King]

If we are vaccinating all the priority groups and there is not pressure on the NHS then there should be no slow down in re-opening and ditching distancing, masks etc, at least domestically, regardless of any slowdown in receiving supply from EU countries.

With Hancock's "mantra" being "no one is protected until we are all protected" you know exactly where we are heading in the scenario you describe unfortunately.

[Gordon EF]

42 minutes ago, Elixir said:

So you have this thanks to the shitshow of Brexit, all the while followed by certain Government advisers wanting aviation and travel torched for years to come. They have to be held to account.

Oh no. Poor London landlords.

[Mark Connolly]

Just now, Gordon EF said:

Oh no. Poor London landlords.

Don't forget the poor Edinburgh ones who are worried the Festival and the Fringe may never return in its previous form.

[Detournement]

1 hour ago, Elixir said:

 

How does The White House coming out and binning them fit in with the whole WEF 'Great Reset'?@Detournement

Considering that the UK government said in January that they weren't introducing them while being months into contracts I'll take it with a pinch of salt. 

My cynical Spidey sense is saying that they will allow individual states and private companies to build a complete cluster f**k of a system which doesn't work then step in saying that the public demand a better system (like BJ saying pubs want it here when they don't). 

Edited April 7, 2021 by Detournement

[Gordon EF]

Just now, Mark Connolly said:

Don't forget the poor Edinburgh ones who are worried the Festival and the Fringe may never return in its previous form.

My thoughts and prayers are with them too...

Spoiler