Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[101]

7 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

1 hour ago, yoda said:

It shouldn't come into the argument at all. The argument for or against restrictions should have nothing to do with how much the government is spending on furlough.

Id imagine people sat on 80% wedge with their employer weighing up ongoing viablility of their business with every flip flopping update to restrictions would disagree with whether or not its relevant

The flip flopping doesn't help but for some sectors it's not even the restrictions in the UK that are the only consideration. 

Furlough and business support should be targeted after its official end date to continue to support sectors facing disruption.

[Billy Jean King]

It is NOT all that you are saying. The next time I see social distancing in public spaces will be a first, far less the c***s that refuse to wear a mask which was poorly policed by all. 

We still have every second person you come towards on a pavement stepping 6 feet out into the road to let you pass. That said Troon is blue rinse central. It's the epitome of a terrified population, masks in the street the lot.

[Elixir]

A lot of big L's on here from the usual suspects today.

[craigkillie]

43 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

Sturgeon's trick of hiding 'social distancing' in the list of things that will have to continue in some form post- whatever is the latest "freedom Day" is wearing very thin. As in 'its clear mask wearing, washing hands and social distancing will have to continue post August 9th'.

As long as social distancing in any form is insisted on, certain businesses are completely unviable.

I have searched for this quote using Google and can't find it - when did she say this?

[Left Back]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

With negative interest rates it would be stupid not to, unless it was to keep the £20 UC top up, or introduce a Universal Basic Income or something like that.

Do we have negative interest rates at the moment?  (If we do I’ve missed it).  What happens when interest rates go up and to government has to roll the debt over?  It becomes more expensive and reduces the amount available for public sector spending.  Inflation will erode the value of the debt over time but with an inflation target of 2% that means an extremely long time.  The government wants to open up the economy not just to prevent it having to borrow extreme sums of money but also to increase tax income so it can decrease the debt.  If it doesn’t it’s future generations that pay the bill of reduced public services, higher taxes etc.

It’s naive to think there isn’t a bill for all this.  It might not be in 5 years or 10 years (how household finances operate) but there is a bill.  They can’t keep borrowing eye-watering sums of money indefinitely.

[Bairnardo]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

That's a totally separate issue from how much it's costing the government though. 

Maybe I misunderstood your post but it seemed like the concern was over how much it was costing to keep furlough going. Apologies if I've picked you up wrong.

No it sort of was, your reply was fair enough although I would counter your reply by saying you are right thats how an economy works, but its not how a tory government WILL work. We have all seen their media friemds repeatedly using the household budget analogies. 

 

My pojnt with restrictions as always, is on a cost/benefit basis. I believe there are effective health interventions available that do not carry the same cost economically or to peoples general wellbeing/happiness. 

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Left Back said:

Do we have negative interest rates at the moment?  (If we do I’ve missed it).  What happens when interest rates go up and to government has to roll the debt over?  It becomes more expensive and reduces the amount available for public sector spending.  Inflation will erode the value of the debt over time but with an inflation target of 2% that means an extremely long time.  The government wants to open up the economy not just to prevent it having to borrow extreme sums of money but also to increase tax income so it can decrease the debt.  If it doesn’t it’s future generations that pay the bill of reduced public services, higher taxes etc.

It’s naive to think there isn’t a bill for all this.  It might not be in 5 years or 10 years (how household finances operate) but there is a bill.  They can’t keep borrowing eye-watering sums of money indefinitely.

I don't pretend to understand it but I think the money borrowed is on fixed interest rate bonds, so higher interests would only affect future borrowing. It worries me too, printing money to get out of a hole has got a pretty catastrophic track record, but doing it while the economy is fundamentally sound, other than the short term Covid hit, maybe isn't quite so dangerous.

[Left Back]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I don't pretend to understand it but I think the money borrowed is on fixed interest rate bonds, so higher interests would only affect future borrowing. It worries me too, printing money to get out of a hole has got a pretty catastrophic track record, but doing it while the economy is fundamentally sound, other than the short term Covid hit, maybe isn't quite so dangerous.

Bonds are fixed interest but have a limited lifespan.  If you decide to roll it over (which the government will have to do for this debt for a long time) you do it at the interest rate at the time by issuing a new bond.  If the interest rate has gone up your debt becomes more expensive to service.  

[superbigal]

Daily Cases Update:  Decent Day 5 of dropping cases. Down an excellent 3.58% to 367.9  Expect another decrease tomorrow now of around 4-5%, and a further 2-3% on Tuesday  The top 16 in the table are all dropping and confirms this wave looks to be over. On my numbers we will be down to around 340 per 100K.  Rest of home nations still rising and England could well pass us by Thursday..

Dundee is of the top spot. Only Falkirk & South Ayrshire still rising but even there in small numbers.  Fairmuir in Dundee & Penicuik in general appear to be the places to avoid for now.

No updates from mainland Europe which is disappointing.

Latest European figures today.   Scotland 367.9, England 301.5, Northern Ireland 165.1, Wales 139.3, Portugal 109.3 to 118.0,  Russia 97.8 to 100.0,   Spain 76.3 to 92.9, at other end we have Poland 1.9 to 1.8, Germany 5.1 to 5.0, Italy 7.4 to 7.5, Czech 9.0 to 8.5, Switzerland 8.4 to 9.0, Sweden 14.2 to 16.0 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

Scotland peaks (Hopefully) at 425.1 for 27th June to 3rd July, (UK was 229.9) . Cases that day were 23,222 and positivity 10.8%

Scotland previously peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan, (UK was 642.1)    Cases that day were 16,496 and test positivity rate was 11.9%  

Total Cases 7 days from 2nd July to 8th July  were  20,848 to 20,101 down 3.58%.  Positivity was 10.2%  now 10.2%.   Cases per 100k were  381.6 now 367.9

Home Nations Daily update  :  UK Average   286.3 to 298.1 up 4.40%, England 286.6 to 301.5 up 5.20%,  Wales 135.7 to 139.3 up 2.65%, Northern Ireland  157.0 to 165.1 up 5.16%

Council progress in last 24 Hours as follows.

Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map. 
https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

 LEVEL 2 RED

Midlothian  720.3 to 709.5  A small decrease but inherits top spot.

Dundee City 747.4 to 702.5   5th day of dropping. Down 6.01% but of the top spot.

East Lothian    521.1 to 513.6  LEVEL 1 

Inverclyde  500.0 to 494.9  LEVEL 1 Some rise up charts for the Riviera  

City Of Edinburgh  510..7 to 492.4  5th day in a row down.

Angus  509.5 to 469.9 LEVEL 1 Down 7.77%

Glasgow City 446.7 to 433.7

East Renfrewshire   433.4 to 428.1

West Dunbartonshire    470.0 to 411.6  LEVEL 1 5th day in a row down, today a huge 12.43%

Perth & Kinross    460.0 to 406.1  LEVEL 1  Down huge 21% in 2 days.

Renfrewshire   422.1 to 398.7

Fife   410.1 to 397.0  LEVEL 1

East Dunbartonshire    406.8 to 390.3  

Aberdeen City   391.0 to 383.1 LEVEL1

West Lothian    383.9 to 379.6   LEVEL1  

North Lanarkshire   379.6 to 367.3  

Falkirk    349.3 to 356.1  LEVEL 1 Todays outlier again. 2nd day of rises.

South Lanarkshire   286.1 to 275.2

Scottish  Borders  290.9 to 274.3 LEVEL 1

North Ayrshire  279.1 to 273.1

East Ayrshire   296.7 to 263.9 Down huge 22.61% in 2 days.

Stirling   249.4 to 241.0

Highlands    244.7 to 240.0 LEVEL 1

South Ayrshire   233.5 to 236.2  Like Falkirk 2nd day of rises

Aberdeenshire    218.6 to 211.3  LEVEL 1

Clackmannanshire   209.5 to 207.6

OFFICIAL  LEVEL 1 BLACK

Argyll & Bute  189.8 to 173.5

Orkney Islands  107.8 to 112.3

Dumfries & Galloway  105.5 to 107.5 

Moray   90.8 to 91.8

OFFICIAL LEVEL 0  Teuchters in Green

 Shetland Islands  52.4 to 52.4

Western Isles  59.9 to 44.9

Edited July 11, 2021 by superbigal

[yoda]

[Todd_is_God]

Now that the wave is clearly beyond the peak, I look forward to NS confirming the intention to bin social distancing and gathering limits from 9th August in parliament next week.

There can be no justification for delaying this date.

[UsedToGoToCentralPark]

Now that the wave is clearly beyond the peak, I look forward to NS confirming the intention to bin social distancing and gathering limits from 9th August in parliament next week.
There can be no justification for delaying this date.

WE JUST DON'T KNOW,
VaRiAnTs
We care more
No apologies
Reckless Toaries

There's some "justifications"

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, UsedToGoToCentralPark said:

WE JUST DON'T KNOW,
VaRiAnTs
We care more
No apologies
Reckless Toaries

There's some "justifications"

My bad, I forgot we could just invent some.

[sparky88]

44 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

I have searched for this quote using Google and can't find it - when did she say this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-57764863

 

The words she is is quoted as using is 'physical distancing'. 

[craigkillie]

1 hour ago, sparky88 said:

Sturgeon's trick of hiding 'social distancing' in the list of things that will have to continue in some form post- whatever is the latest "freedom Day" is wearing very thin. As in 'its clear mask wearing, washing hands and social distancing will have to continue post August 9th'.

As long as social distancing in any form is insisted on, certain businesses are completely unviable.

 

3 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-57764863

 

The words she is is quoted as using is 'physical distancing'. 

 

You have paraphrased those comments to put your own spin on them, but have presented them as a quote, which is dishonest.  You have just completely made up the "post August 9th" part which isn't mentioned anywhere by Sturgeon (especially because she isn't American and therefore surely wouldn't say a date like that).

The actual quote is "Many of the baseline measures like face coverings, physical distancing, hand hygiene and advising on ventilation, these are going to continue to be important mitigations to protect us and others from the virus for some time yet. No matter what our decision is next week, there won't be an abrupt end to these basic protective measures when we do move to level zero."

Level 0 refers to the changes due to be made next week, not on 9th August. She also said that they are "going to continue to be important mitigations", which is a very different thing to "will have to continue". The former implies that these things will be good practice, the latter implies that they will be legal requirements.

As of right now, there hasn't been any indication from the Scottish government that their original planning of lifting social distancing requirements on 9th August will change.

 

[No_Problemo]

2 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

 

 

You have paraphrased those comments to put your own spin on them, but have presented them as a quote, which is dishonest.  You have just completely made up the "post August 9th" part which isn't mentioned anywhere by Sturgeon (especially because she isn't American and therefore surely wouldn't say a date like that).

The actual quote is "Many of the baseline measures like face coverings, physical distancing, hand hygiene and advising on ventilation, these are going to continue to be important mitigations to protect us and others from the virus for some time yet. No matter what our decision is next week, there won't be an abrupt end to these basic protective measures when we do move to level zero."

Level 0 refers to the changes due to be made next week, not on 9th August. She also said that they are "going to continue to be important mitigations", which is a very different thing to "will have to continue". The former implies that these things will be good practice, the latter implies that they will be legal requirements.

As of right now, there hasn't been any indication from the Scottish government that their original planning of lifting social distancing requirements on 9th August will change.

 

Possibly, however I would suggest “for some time” implies it is for far longer than four weeks! 

[craigkillie]

1 minute ago, No_Problemo said:

Possibly, however I would suggest “for some time” implies it is for far longer than four weeks! 

But as I also mentioned, there's a difference between encouraging people to continue to follow these principles where possible (eg keeping your distance from folk when queueing in shops) and actually having them required by law, which is the part which would be damaging to the economy.

[Bairnardo]

But as I also mentioned, there's a difference between encouraging people to continue to follow these principles where possible (eg keeping your distance from folk when queueing in shops) and actually having them required by law, which is the part which would be damaging to the economy.

I agree with this, and its another one of the available ongoing public health interventions I mentioned that could continue ad infinitum. Make people aware that its better to give people some personal space (plenty dont seem to be). Avoid sitting right beside or opposite someone on a train or bus if there are other seats available etc.

All common sense stuff to most but some encourage in that direction would do no harm, but some good

[No_Problemo]

6 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

But as I also mentioned, there's a difference between encouraging people to continue to follow these principles where possible (eg keeping your distance from folk when queueing in shops) and actually having them required by law, which is the part which would be damaging to the economy.

Yeah, fair point! 

[HeartsOfficialMoaner]

They could ask every company that has adverts on tv to have covid aware adverts -

Fancy a bowl of cornflakes. Just sit over there 2 metres away and I'l for a bowl for you with my mask on...