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Geopolitics in the 2020s.


dorlomin

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On 09/09/2023 at 15:15, Zetterlund said:

Argentinian presidential frontrunner Javier Milei appears to be simultaneously a lot of fun and a dangerous madman,

 

Cannot believe my guy is rocking scene girl hair. 

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On 20/11/2023 at 00:17, MazzyStar said:

Has any country ever voted to inflict self harm on itself as spectacularly as this before? 

I hope The Netherlands won't follow this tomorrow... Latest polls show that the "Freedom Party" from far-right lunatic Geert Wilders is on course to become the biggest party in tomorrow's election. 🤐

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15 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

I'd assume they'd still be kept out of power by other parties forming coalitions, or have any of the traditional major parties said they'd make a deal with them?

Some parties say the standard thing that they don't want to rule anyone out, but with some of Wilders' red lines it will be very hard to reach any compromise so here is hoping that they will still stay out of any coalition.

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13 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

Seat projection in final (large) polls says: far right 29, labour-green alliance 28, conservative 26, new centrist/right-of-centre Christian democrats 19 and 13 :lol: other parties 1-8 each.

Majority = 76.

image.thumb.png.a475cb651cd8e377855585d8901ea1ef.png

Could require Belgian-esque negotiations...?

Yeah, last time it already took a long time, but I think we're after Belgium's record now. :D 

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1 minute ago, Trogdor said:

At least he'll be nowhere near power.

Hopefully not, with the conservative VVD he'll "only" have 59 seats, while 76 are needed for a majority. That means he will need to get centrists or left-of-centre on board, which will be very difficult for him.

Long negotiations ahead...

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2 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

When did a far right party last come 1st in a European parliamentary election - certainly a major/western country :o?


Coalitions further complicated by only Liberals + Farmers Party winning more than 5 seats:
image.png.784777c53f635593445b0e5d889daa02.png

UKIP won more seats than any other UK party in the European Parliament elections of 2014, with 27% of the vote.

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Dutch result so far with nearly all votes counted, change compared to the previous election in 2021 (turnout 77.8%):

PVV (far-right): 37 seats (+20)
GL-PvdA (Labour/Green coalition): 25 (+8)
VVD (Conservative): 24 (-10)
NSC (Centrist): 20 (+20)
D'66 (LibDem): 9 (-15)
BBB (Farmers party): 7 (+6)
CDA (Christian Democrats, right of centre): 5 (-10)
Socialist Party: 5 (-4)
FvD (far-right, pro-Putin, conspiracist): 3 (-5)
Party for the Animals (environmentalists, animal rights): 3 (-3)
ChristianUnion (left of centre, social conservatives): 3 (-2)
SGP (Christian conservatives): 3 (-)
Denk (pro-immigration, largely from Muslim community): 3 (-)
Volt (pan-European centrists): 2 (-1)
JA21 (right wing): 1 (-2)

50+ (pensioners' party) & Bij1 (far-left) both lost their only seat

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20 minutes ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

He's already rowed back slightly on some of his worst ideas (banning mosques and the Koran, blanket bans on immigration, etc) presumably to get the centre-right parties on board. Even with that, he might struggle to fill a cabinet and as all politicians find out, it's easier to say than to do.

And even if he does manage to form a coalition, the question is whether or not it will last. Often which such parties, once you give them actual responsibility they will mess up. I could easily see another election in less than 2 years and if he is seen as the main reason for the coalition collapsing, he could easily nosedive in the next election.

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22 hours ago, HibeeJibee said:

When did a far right party last come 1st in a parliamentary election in Europe - certainly major/western countries :o?


Coalitions further complicated by only Liberals winning more than 5 seats among rest:

image.thumb.png.b7cbede30757685b77d4c280f952bd95.png

Italy, last year? Now Argentina, The Netherlands and France and the USA going back to Le Penn and Trump potentially?

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